US President Trump’s Truth Social to launch prediction markets through Crypto.com deal
In a move that could raise conflict of interest concerns among event-contract detractors, US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social announced a landmark deal on Tuesday that will make prediction markets available on the social media platform.
Under the deal with Crypto.com, Trump Media’s Truth Social will become the first social media platform technology to give users access to embedded prediction market capabilities through its exchange.
The new platform, “Truth Predict”, will give users the ability to trade event contracts in numerous areas, including:
- Political elections
- Sports
- Commodity prices on oil and gold
- Inflation
- Interest rate fluctuations
“We are thrilled to become the world’s first publicly traded social media platform to offer our users access to prediction markets,” said former California congressman Devin Nunes, who serves as chairman and CEO of Trump Media. “Truth Predict will allow our users to engage in prediction markets with a trusted network, while harnessing our social media platform to provide unique ways for users to discuss and compare their predictions.”
Election betting on Truth Social prediction markets?
The announcement comes several days after Trump named Michael Selig as his nominee to serve as chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Selig, chief counsel of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s Crypto Task Force, reportedly emerged as a candidate to receive the nod last month.
According to a joint press release, Truth Predict will offer the contracts through Crypto.com’s Derivatives North America platform, a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Crypto.com only offered pricing on one election event contract: next month’s New York City mayoral election. Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, has a commanding lead on the exchange, with a 93% probability to win.
While Crypto.com does not offer a derivative for the 2028 US Presidential election, other leading prediction markets have made the contract available since Trump took office. Trump is the consensus third choice to become the Republican nominee even though he is not eligible to serve again because of Constitutional term limits.
Views on prediction markets abroad
Over the last 10 months, jurisdictional debate on the regulation of sports event contracts has dominated the sports betting landscape. Kalshi, an upstart prediction market, is embroiled in litigation in numerous states over the legality of sports derivatives on the state level.
In response, Kalshi has argued that the contracts are federally regulated through the CFTC. Donald Trump Jr, the son of the US president, joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor in January.
Polymarket also revealed its intent to relaunch inside the United States on Tuesday.
Outside the US, several countries throughout Europe typically take a more conservative view of prediction markets. In Germany, the Joint Gambling Authority of the federal states, a body responsible for regulating transnational gaming, has stated that prediction markets are not compliant with federal regulations on gambling. The authority asserts that some markets are “susceptible” to manipulation because of certain outcomes it deems subjective.
Polymarket agreed to geofence users from accessing its product in France. The decision came after the French National Gaming Authority (ANJ) determined that Polymarket’s trading products likely violated national law. Regulators in the UK, however, typically view event contracts as gambling products, given that election betting has been widely available on sports gambling websites.
Truth Social will begin beta testing in the relative near future, the companies wrote in the joint statement. Trump Media plans to launch the service globally once all the requisite requirements are met.
“We are thrilled to integrate Truth Social’s pioneering social media platform and technology with our industry-leading technology and regulated prediction market trading,” wrote Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, in the statement.