But is it going to push swathes of gambling activity offshore, and will it yield £1.1 billion in new tax revenue as the Office for Budget Responsibility claims? And why could it lead to retail closures when taxes on betting shops were left untouched??

Ed Birkin is not so sure, as Right to the Source breaks down the key figures to cut away the hyperbole and set out what GB gambling faces facing in the wake of the tax rise.

A dominant global force in gaming, the operator has become market leader in the US through its FanDuel brand and has expressed similar lofty ambitions in Latin America.   

In September 2024, Flutter acquired a 56% stake in NSX, the parent company of Brazil-facing brand Betnacional. That same month, the company insisted the deal boosted its market share to 11%. NSX provided the operator with a wealth of local talent and experience.

The deal was completed in May, when NSX CEO Joao Studart stepped into the top job at the newly formed Flutter Brazil.

The agreement mirrored Flutter’s strategy across Europe and the US, combining local brand strength and the group’s financial and technology firepower and global structure. For Studart, the deal made perfect sense and marked a new chapter for the Brazil sports betting market.  

“Flutter saw in Brazil not only an opportunity for strategic expansion, but also a market with real prominence within the global sector,” Studart tells iGB. “It recognised in Betnacional a successful example of genuine connection with Brazilian fans – a popular, culturally rooted and fast-growing brand.” 

M&A specialist Christian Tirabassi, founder and senior partner of Ficom Leisure, believes Betnacional was a top-10 player in Brazil’s pre-regulated market.

Acquiring a local hero of this size meant Flutter could achieve an early-mover advantage, a key benefit in such a highly competitive market.

“The opening of other markets has shown us that whoever is early into the market has an important market share and will probably stay there or even increase that leading position,” Tirabassi says. 

Local prowess 

Stakeholders have noted just how important localisation is to succeed in Brazil, which differs culturally from its LatAm neighbours even beyond the language distinctions.

Pre-regulation, many shared the belief that international entrants could struggle in Brazil unless they properly localised through a boots-on-the-ground approach that differs vastly from their other markets. 

Studart believes Flutter Brazil combines NSX and Betnacional’s local prowess and the Flutter Edge technology stack, bringing scale and local autonomy.

“Flutter Brazil [is] an operation that remains Brazilian at its core, with local leadership and a deep understanding of the consumer,” Studart explains. “At the same time, it operates with the resources, governance and technology of a global group. 

“Through the Flutter Edge, we brought to Brazil state-of-the-art tools, a robust infrastructure, high-level compliance standards and a responsible gaming programme tailored to the country’s reality.

“At the same time, we preserved Betnacional’s essence as a local hero – a brand that represents the Brazilian spirit of football, entertainment and popular culture.”

Brazil’s launch has dominated gaming news in the last couple of years. A huge nation with a population of around 213 million, Brazil has a vibrant sporting culture, and many expected its opening to provide an entry into LatAm’s growing gambling opportunity.  

H2 Gambling Capital ranks Betano, Superbet and Bet365 as its top three players by market share, according to its revenue estimates. International entrants are clearly gaining a strong foothold in the market.

Since the launch, operator revenue figures for Brazil have varied. In Q1 most listed players reported strong numbers as early entrants, but as competition has increased, and KYC pressures remain, some have seen that growth slow slightly.  

In Q3 London-listed Entain warned that iGaming was not performing as well as it could be, due to a slow and arduous certification process, which meant few games were available in the market during the period. Flutter reported revenue of $87 million in Brazil in Q3, marking a 412% uptick on the same period in 2024, prior to regulation.  

Of course, this year the company has included NSX’s revenues within its mix, with Betnacional reportedly achieving record iGaming revenues during the quarter. Excluding NSX’s revenue, Flutter saw a 18% year-on-year revenue drop across its Betfair brand in Brazil.

Group CEO Peter Jackson said this was due to its continued recovery from bottlenecks that occurred during and following the regulatory process.

Ed Birkin, H2 Gambling Capital managing director, estimates Flutter Brazil is currently sitting in fifth position in the market with a 4.5% market share. 

“While it’s still very competitive at the moment, I would imagine Flutter’s strategy will be focused on getting the best product [out],” Birkin explains. “And then as other people start to pull back, which is going to happen at some point because the losses that I’d imagine a lot of companies are making aren’t sustainable, that’s when they will start to leverage their financial firepower, start to lean in as they call it and pick up the slack.” 

A slice of the pie 

The Flutter Edge platform is the core function powering the operator’s “local heroes” strategy, through which it has acquired numerous leading brands in various markets and integrated them into the central platform.

Analysts are bullish on the power of the Edge platform. In December 2024 Macquarie senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon estimated the platform would help Flutter gain up to 25% market share in Brazil by 2030.  

In his December note Beynon said the platform had proven to affect market share gains in new markets quickly. He also said further M&A was on the cards for Flutter in LatAm.  

“Flutter Edge brings to Brazil state-of-the-art resources in infrastructure, data intelligence, innovation and compliance – ensuring that our brands operate with robustness, speed and security,” Studart says. “At the same time, we have the freedom to adapt products, experiences and strategies to local realities, delivering tailored solutions that truly connect with our audience.  

“It is precisely this combination of global structure and local leadership that positions Flutter Brazil among the most prepared companies to lead the sector – with consistency, credibility and a positive impact on the entire ecosystem.” 

Birkin expects Flutter will invest heavily in marketing further down the line, as competition slows and others pull back from the market. This will enable it to capitalise on waning competition, a strategy that worked for Flutter in stunning fashion in the US. 

“My view is the best strategy would be to focus on integrating their very strong technology and know-how into the Betnacional business to improve the product,” Birkin says. “Once they’ve got the product where they want it, then to spend their money on marketing as others pull back on it. 

“What you’d notice in the US is that as people started pulling back on bonusing and marketing, as lots of operators were loss-making, they pull back, then FanDuel starts to lean in and kind of use their scale to take customers.”

Birkin notes Bet365 employed a similar strategy in the US, where the operator avoided spending huge amounts to gain brand awareness. Instead, it operated efficiently in the background, waiting to make market share gains when others pulled back. 

The sheer scale of Flutter Brazil compared to smaller operators is demonstrated by its massive local workforce of over 500. The business operates multiple functions locally, including technology, marketing and customer services. The company also recently changed its corporate structure, with a raft of new C-level appointments to work alongside Studart. 

Flutter Brazil has drawn from other sectors to build out its executive team, while also ensuring a combination of international expertise with a “deep cultural connection” to Brazil.

“The IT team is a great example of this integration, with professionals from Flutter’s international structure working remotely in collaboration with the local team, expanding our capacity for innovation and integration,” Studart adds. 

“The new executives bring extensive experience in their fields, foster local reach and lead highly qualified teams that are already recognised as industry benchmarks, always operating with responsibility and a long-term vision. With Betnacional as part of its brand ecosystem, the goal is to sustain an operation centred on Brazilian talent and local insight.” 

Further M&A 

Tirabassi shares Benyon’s view that Flutter will make other acquisitions in LatAm, in part due to their strong history of successful M&A across its global portfolio and with the company’s sights set on reaching the summit of the regulated Brazil sector.

“Their objective, clearly, is to become number one, and that’s why I think they’re going to make other acquisitions,” Tirabassi says. “Large ones that would allow them to be quickly number one or number two, so something of the same size or similar size. I think that Flutter is actively looking for an [M&A] target. I know that for sure.” 

But Tirabassi knows well that this process isn’t easy.

“We believe the issue [in Brazil] is finding a target which is ready to transact,” Tirabassi adds. “Being on the sell side, the majority of the work we do is prepare the target, because they’re not ready. We understand the priority is business. But then again, very big business, very small corporate. So that’s why we’re trying to kind of help them to realign the size of the corporate together with the size of the business.  

“They need at least a couple of quarters to organise the company. So, we expect that in 2026 you will see some additional M&A in the market, because targets will be in a better position than now to engage in a transaction with a company like Flutter.” 

With Birkin currently ranking Flutter Brazil and its Betnacional and Betfair brands at number five in the market, he has reservations over whether they can scramble to the top spot. H2’s numbers give Betano, Superbet and Bet365 a combined 47% of the market, and Birkin feels that could be a tough trio to crack for Flutter. 

“They want to be in a podium position,” Birkin explains. “On our numbers that would involve them overtaking Sportingbet and Superbet. Is that possible? Yes. Do I see them being able to capture in a year, five years, Betano and Bet365? That would involve a significant change in market structure.” 

Tirabassi, however, is a little more confident and believes in the value of the NSX acquisition. Add to that Flutter’s capability to conduct more M&A, and Flutter could certainly buy its way to the top.  

“I think the difference is that culturally, the Flutter group has been extremely capable in M&A, they have a very strong team and also the guys that come after the deal. Betano has basically no experience in M&A or very little so it’s not really their culture.” 

Ultimately, Studart is confident Flutter Brazil will continue to make strides in the new and exciting Brazil market.

“The Brazilian market is going through a phase of consolidation that brings great opportunities for operators who invest with seriousness, a consumer-first mindset and a commitment to best practices,” Studart concludes.  

“The progress of regulation has laid the foundation for a more balanced ecosystem – one that combines innovation with responsibility. Flutter Brazil sees this new scenario as fertile ground for sustainable growth. By combining global scale with a deep understanding of local specificities, we aim to actively contribute to the sector’s maturation – offering relevant and safe experiences to users while reinforcing the pillars of trust, transparency and Brazilian culture that underpin our brands.” 

The draft, “The Case For a National Online Gambling Tax“, stressed that while land-based bookmakers and casinos are currently taxed between 6%-9% of winnings or gross gaming revenue by the licensing provinces, they still generate employment and other communal benefits for the citizens. The same cannot be said about online and interactive gambling despite the significant spike in its user engagement.

A recent publication from the market’s regulatory bodies showed GGR from online gambling went up 60% on data from the previous year.

According to a report from Statistics South Africa, firms providing bookmaker and online gambling services saw a massive income boost up to R152.6 billion ($8.9 billion) as of 2023, representing a 72% increase between 2018 and 2023, a figure which clearly surpassed all other activities in the sports and recreation sector.

Why this proposed tax rate is cause for concern

With online gambling being in direct competition with land-based casinos as part of the interactive gambling industry in most countries, tax rates should be aligned to ensure fairness, the draft stipulated.

And as up to 11 other jurisdictions are already charging a 20% tax on GGR, with a further 16 regulators collecting an even higher tax rate, the National Treasury explained why the proposed rate should be upheld and implemented. The national gambling tax would be in addition to the provincial tax rates and would lead to a tax rate of between 26% and 29% for all online gambling activities.

The new rate is expected to translate to an additional R10 billion in revenue generation to the South African government. However, the proposed reform was not particularly aimed at further revenue generation but to curb the issue of problem and pathological gambling and its consequences.

Enforcing oversight

In respect to that, the National Treasury has also mapped out a procedure to ensure oversight and the collection of the proposed tax rate when approved.

Every online operator will be required to register and provide the South African Revenue Service with similar information to that currently available to the provincial gambling boards they are licensed to, which is used for gambling tax revenue collection. That way, compliance will be enforced.

Local industry players who are involved in interactive gambling will also be subjected to the proposed tax, depending on the extent of the GGR of every gaming activity in which they are involved.

In its conclusion, the Treasury’s proposal noted that regulatory bodies have not kept pace with the evolving market over the years as forms of gambling (like online and interactive gambling) other than lotteries and sports pools have been let off, hence the need for the new rate on their operations.

The betting and gaming consultancy questioned some of the figures put forward by the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBG). Previously, the OBG said the changes could bring in up to an additional £1.6 billion in tax receipts.

This figure, however, was reduced to £1.1 billion when accounting for “behavioural change” expected among consumers due to tax increases. These reflect a possible fall in player demand due to a reduction in bonuses as operators seek to mitigate the impact of higher tax, with some users also turning to the black market.

However, H2GC said the increase in tax receipts would be more modest. Its own estimates place the rise at around £800 million by FY28, after accounting for behavioural change among players.

That said, prior to behavioural change, H2GC noted that its estimates were in line with the OBR at £1.6 billion in additional tax income.

Behavioural changes from GB gambling tax hike

The most variation appears within the iGaming sector, which faces the higher rate of 40%. Based on its own calculation, H2GC said the “static” increase – prior to behavioural change alterations – would be £1.35 billion by FY28. However, it placed the adjusted figure at £649 million, almost half the initial, static figure.

As for sports betting, which will see its tax rate rise to 25%, the static estimation was £204 million. After behavioural change, the adjusted figure was considerably lower at £149 million.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed the tax increases in the autumn budget announcement on Wednesday. These include a rise in remote gaming duty from 21% to 40%, which will come into effect in April 2026.

A new general betting duty for remote betting will also be introduced in April 2027 at 25%, up from 15%. This will apply to online betting profit but exclude self-service betting terminals, spread betting, pool bets and horse racing bets.

Higher tax could push revenue down 14%

H2GC also compared the impact of higher tax rates on gross gaming yield (GGY) and gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the UK. It said both would be impacted by operators withdrawing from the UK, due to the rise in tax, and an increase in players switching to unlicensed sites in search of better bonuses and promotions.

By FY28, GGY – based on the market after the tax increases – would be around £6.69 billion. However, if rates were to be kept the same, GGY would reach approximately £7.79 billion. In total, H2GC said GGY would drop £1.1 billion, or 14%, if the tax rise goes ahead.

Again, iGaming would be the hardest hit, with a 16% drop in GGY expected after the new tax rules come into effect. Sports betting GGR would be 8% lower based on the same estimates.

In terms of GGR, current regulations mean this could hit £9.14 billion by FY28. After the tax rises, GGR would be approximately £7.12 billion, meaning a decline of £1.97 billion, or 22%, as a direct result of higher tax rates.

H2GC said iGaming GGR could be as much as 25% lower in FY28 if the tax rise goes ahead. Sports betting GGR would be 11% lower, with the rate increase here coming into effect later than for iGaming.

Black market in Great Britain to double in size by FY28

Much of the behavioural changes accounted for by the consultancy relate to players moving to black market sites.

Based on current taxation rates, total channelisation for the online market will be 94% by FY28, in terms of GGY. This would reach 97% for sports betting and 93% for iGaming. However, after the new rates, channelisation for the entire market could be as low as 87%, H2GC said. Sports betting channelisation could drop to 94% and iGaming 83%.

As for GGR, based on current taxation, channelisation is on track to be 93% in FY28, with a split of 97% for sports betting and 92% iGaming. Should the tax increase go ahead this would be around 84% for the whole online market, with sports betting at 93% and iGaming 80%.

In essence, H2GC said the black market could more than double in size based on the new tax rates. Offshore GGY would be 111% higher by FY28 if the changes takes place, with offshore GGR also rising 110%.

“We have little doubt that, if the direction of these forecasts materialise, then a reduction in the onshore market will be viewed by politicians as a major victory,” H2GC said. “Not only have they been able to curb the size of the onshore online gambling industry, but they have increased tax revenue at the same time.

“However, what will be completely ignored will be the at least doubling in size of the illegal market and all the negative implications this has, not least on player welfare.”

Industry hits back at planned changes

Announcement of the tax increases, unsurprisingly, led to criticism from the industry. Many major operators hit out at the decision, saying this would not only impact their own business but also have a detrimental impact on the wider market.

Primary concerns included increased traffic to the black market, a reduction in bonus offers and cut-backs on spending, with some businesses warning jobs could be lost as they seek to mitigate the impact of higher taxes.

Revenue during the period reached €242.5 million ($281 million), Intralot reported. This was 2.9% short of the previous year but 0.3% higher on a constant currency basis.

Reflecting on the year-to-date, Robeson Reeves, who took over as group CEO in November, noted the impact of “strong” foreign exchange headwinds. He said these has skewed year-on-year comparisons for the period and backed the group to deliver its full-year goals.

“Intralot’s nine-month results as a standalone company show that it has been on track to deliver its goals for 2025, weathering strong FX headwinds,” Reeves said.

Considering the Bally’s impact for Intralot

Reference to standalone relates to the recent purchase of Bally’s international assets. The €2.7 billion acquisition completed in November, with Intralot taking full ownership of Bally’s International Interactive.

While the nine-month figures refer only to Intralot, Reeves noted the impact the addition of Bally’s will have moving forward. For the same period, Bally’s International Interactive saw revenue hit €548 million plus a 43% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q3.

“Our guidance for full-year 2025 pro forma the two entities annualised is expected in the area of €1.1 billion revenue and €435 million in adjusted EBITDA, with a combined margin of 40.65%,” he said.

B2B/B2G decline pushes revenue down

Breaking down performance during the 9M period, the B2B and B2G segment accounted for 95.1% of revenue. Excluding foreign exchanges variances, this was broadly in line with last year, falling 0.5%.

Intralot said its key markets continued to demonstrate “resilient” activity. In the US, revenue was up 2.3% in constant currency, while Australia saw 3.9% growth and Argentina 19.8%. In Turkey, however, results were negatively impacted by the application of the hyperinflation accounting treatment.

Turning to B2C, revenue increased 12.4% in Argentina. Intralot said that the local market saw strong expansion, supported by sustained economic momentum. However, the translation of results into euros was moderated by the effects of hyperinflation accounting.

For the business as a whole, lottery games drew 53.6% of overall revenue. Sports betting contributed 21.6% to the total, video lottery terminals 13% and IT products and services 11.8%.

Intralot slips to €3.1 million net loss

Gross profit for the period fell 15.9% to €83.7 million, although other operating income was up 4.8% to €23.1 million. In addition, operating costs were reduced 16.1% to €69.3 million amid lower spending in Turkey and the US, further supported by local currency devaluation.

Adjusted EBITDA edged down 1.6% to €90.1 million while margin increased from 36.7% to 37.2%.

Intralot noted €2.7 million in reorganisation expenses and a further €51.3 million worth of deprecation and amortisation. This resulted in €34.7 million in operating profit, a decline of 6.5%.

After accounting for interested and related expenses, as well as other costs, pre-tax profit was €8.8 million. This fell 17.1% short of the figure posted in the same period last year.

Intralot ended the nine months with a net loss of €3.1million, compared to a €6.5 million profit in 2024.

Intralot commits to ‘aggressive’ mitigation amid UK tax rises

The group also acknowledged news of higher tax rates on gambling in the UK. Set out in the autumn budget, these will see remote gaming duty increase from 21% to 40% and general betting duty from 15% to 25%.

Reeves said the increases were “higher than anticipated” and that Intralot will follow its “aggressive” mitigation scenarios to manage impact.

“Such tax increases have happened periodically in our markets and, historically, have led to market consolidation and market share growth for companies like Bally’s who have higher margins than other peers,” he said. “We still intend to deliver growth in the wagers accepted which combined with generosity reductions, marketing reductions and accelerated synergies will limit the tax increase impact and will only delay our growth plan by a year.”

With this, Intralot revised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to within the range of €420 million to €440 million.

Tax rises were confirmed by the Office of Budgetary Responsibility and set out in Parliament by Chancellor Rachel Reeves during the autumn budget announcement on Wednesday.

Among the gambling-specific changes was a hike in remote gaming duty from 21% to 40%. A new general betting duty for remote betting will also be introduced in April 2027 at 25%, up from 15%. However, this only covers online betting profit and excludes self-service betting terminals, spread betting, pool bets and horse racing bets. 

The new tax rates will come into effect from the start of the next financial year in April 2026.

Unsurprisingly, the response from the industry has been negative and highly critical. Main concerns include how the new rates will impact investment in the industry, with potential job cuts on the horizon. There were also worries over the future financial performance of operators and a potential rise in black market gambling.

Tax rises will ‘significantly’ harm UK industry

The overall consensus was that higher tax will have a negative impact on the UK market. Betting and Gaming Council CEO Grainne Hurst said the new, “excessive” online tax rates will undermine jobs, investment and growth.

“Massive tax increases for online betting and gaming announced in the budget make them among the highest in the world,” Hurst said. “They’re a devastating hammer blow to tens of thousands of people working in the industry across the UK, and millions of customers who enjoy a bet.”

Per Widerström, CEO of Evoke, also raised concerns about the impact the tax rise will have on the UK market. He said the increases are “highly damaging” for the UK economy and players.

“As an industry, we have consistently warned of the significant impact on jobs, investment in the UK and player protection that these changes would have,” Widerström said. “Yet sadly the government chose not to listen. Proposals are ill-thought-through, counterproductive and highly damaging. It is clear these changes will significantly harm businesses, employees and customers.

“As a result of the actions now required, these tax changes will reduce the overall level of tax the regulated industry pays in the UK and, more importantly, it will have a significant negative impact on player protection as these changes will incentivise activity moving to the illegal and dangerous black market.”

Stella David, CEO of Entain, said she was “deeply disappointed” with the decision, saying it poses risks to the industry.

“Disproportionately increasing gambling taxes will not only have a detrimental impact on our industry but also heighten the risk for customers,” David said. “As seen in other countries, punitive tax increases often lead to lower tax revenues overall, while also driving players to illegal, unregulated operators with no player protections.”

‘Robust’ enforcement must accompany tax rate

Super Group, which owns the Betway brand, was a little more positive in its assessment. CEO Neal Menashe said that the higher rates could be “reasonable” if accompanied by “robust and strict enforcement” in terms of black market activity.

“Super Group supports the reasonable taxation of online gaming in the UK,” Menashe said. “We rely on the government to ensure the very substantial increase should be paired with robust and strict enforcement against non-paying offshore operators. This is essential to protect the regulated sector’s investment in jobs, technology and responsible gaming in the UK.”

Elsewhere, Rank Group took the budget with mixed emotions. While the online rise will hit its digital business, this impact will be partly offset by the abolition of bingo duty, which was also announced in the budget.

“The announced increase in remote gaming duty represents a very significant blow to the regulated betting and gaming industry in the UK,” CEO John O’Reilly said. “While we are pleased that the government has abolished bingo duty, which will help to sustain jobs and investment in the land-based sector, the far more significant impact on the group is the hit to digital profitability.”

Budget ‘slightly’ better than expected

Away from operators, several professional firms and analysts have also given their opinion on the budget. Deutsche Bank said the news was “slightly” better than first thought, given the reprieves for land-based gambling. It said the budget “improves” the near-term outlook for the UK gambling sector.

“From a company perspective, Rank looks to have emerged significantly better than expected,” Deutsche Bank said. “Entain and Evoke are also slightly better, albeit for the latter there remains concern over the resulting balance sheet/leverage.”

Meanwhile, Adam Rivers, managing director and global head of betting and gaming practice at Alvarez and Marsal (A&M), said while the budget was “painful” for the online sector, not all business models have fared badly.

“Scrapping bingo duty and holding machine gaming duty steady gives land-based bingo operators some breathing space, helping venues that still matter to many communities stay on the high street and supporting the wider hospitality sector.”

How will operators cope with tax rise?

Looking ahead, some operators published forecasts as to how higher tax will impact their financial performance. They also detailed some of the measures they are putting in place to offset additional tax costs.

Super Group CFO Alinda van Wyk estimated an impact of approximately 6% to 2026 group adjusted EBITDA. However, the group has several mitigation levers in motion that are intended to offset the tax impact.

“Our strategy remains unchanged: sustainable growth and disciplined capital allocation,” van Wyk said. “We don’t expect the news to alter our long-term trajectory nor our capital return priorities.”

Entain’s David also offered insight into how the business will cope with the higher tax rate. She said it will mitigate approximately 25% of this impact through actions including reducing marketing and promotions. Consistent with the dates of proposed implementation, this equates to an EBITDA impact of approximately £100 million in 2026 and £150 million from 2027.

In addition, David hinted that Entain would likely pick up more UK-based players. This would come as other, smaller operators are forced to exit the market due to the higher tax rates.

‘Thousands’ of jobs set to be cut

Evoke’s Widerström also offered insight into potential mitigation steps. Approximately 50% of higher tax costs will be mitigated in the medium term. This includes through supplier savings, reduced marketing, retail store closures, operating cost savings and potential changes to the customer proposition.

Widerström added that Evoke will begin immediately to execute these mitigation plans, with redundancies set to be part of this approach. He said: “This will involve a significant reduction in investment into the UK and, very regrettably, the likely need for thousands of jobs to be cut up and down the country.

With Rank, the group said it expects an additional duty cost of £46 million on its UK digital business. However, this will be partly offset by the abolition of bingo duty. Rank also noted the impact of the 4.1% rise in the hourly National Minimum Wage to £12.71. It said this will represent an additional cost impact of approximately £5.5 million.

Some positivity over future financial prospects

Flutter UK and Ireland CEO Kevin Harrington was also among the voices of concern over the mooted changes. However, in terms of Flutter’s future performance, he remained optimistic.

Harrington said direct first order mitigation, including reduced operational, promotional and marketing spend, will be approximately 20% of gross impact during the first six months after implementation, rising to 40% thereafter.  As such, net impact on adjusted EBITDA for FY2026 would be approximately $235 million and $339 million in 2027.

“Despite this impact, I am confident that through both our scale and leading position in the UK, as well as the proactive cost initiatives that we are taking, we are well placed to navigate through the changes,” he said.

Playtech also issued a statement acknowledging the increases. It said that impact in group adjusted EBITDA for 2026 would be in the “high-teens millions of euros” before mitigation. However, it added that its operations outside the UK would help offset these declines.

“Given the group’s geographic diversity across regulated markets and strong performance and prospects outside of the UK, Playtech remains comfortable that it can meet market expectations for the full year 2026,” Playtech said.

Enlarged black market argument remains

The underlying theme was the impact the rise in tax will have on black market gambling. In the lead up to the budget, industry voices raised concerns about growth among unlicensed operators after tax rises.

The BGC’s Hurst said these concerns will now be realised. She said: “The budget is a massive win for the incredibly harmful, unsafe, unregulated gambling black market, which pays no tax and offers none of the protections that exist in the regulated sector.”

Flutter’s Harrington agreed, saying the increases hand a “big win” to unlicensed operators, who will become more competitive overnight. He said: “These black market operators don’t pay tax and don’t invest in safer gambling. At 40%, the UK’s remote gaming duty is now above countries such as the Netherlands, where a recent tax increase saw a rise in illegal gambling and a fall in government receipts.”

Regulus echoes black market concerns

Regulus was of a similar mindset. Analysts said the expected reduction in bonuses – as operators seek to mitigate the costs on the tax rises – will drive more players to unlicensed sites, which may offer more bonuses and promotions. With this, it said as much as £2.5 billion in gross gaming revenue could flow into the black market.

“The idea that people are going to gamble less because the licensed sector does not offer bonuses, has a slowly worsening offer due to a lack of profits to invest, or because the Gambling Commission has another £26 million ‘to tackle the illicit market’ is naïve at best,” Regulus said. “Instead, around £2.5 billion of GGR will flow directly into the black market, as is already happening on a smaller scale due to other regulatory interventions.

“The black market therefore gets to fill the vacuum of cuts in marketing, product and operating expenditure in the licensed sector – meaning its product will be better, stand out and will be sought out.”

CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan anticipate total GGR of MOP258.43 billion (US$32.3 billion) for the coming year, “implying daily GGR of MOP709 million per day”. They further expect the gaming sector “to deliver low-teens GGR growth in the first half”.

Macau’s official budget projections are more modest. According to figures released on 21 November, the government expects GGR of MOP236 billion next year. The forecast reflects “caution amid global economic uncertainties”, officials stated.

At the end of the third quarter, CLSA projected total GGR for 2025 of MOP244.830 billion. It has since revised its estimate, “marginally [raising] that projection … by 0.4% as we insert the actual GGR print for October while keeping our forecast unchanged”.

Macau to end 2025 on a positive note

CLSA noted that revenue “momentum since June has continued into the fourth quarter of 2025”. Through October, GGR rose 8% year on year, to MOP205.43 billion.

In December 2024, Macau set a GGR target of MOP240 billion for 2025. Following a slow start to the year and ongoing economic turbulence, it reset the projected total to MOP228 billion.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, says the city’s gaming sector will end 2025 on a high note, with GGR up 16% for the fourth quarter following strong Golden Week performance.

An estimated 1.14 million people visited Macau for the eight-day national holiday, slightly below the government’s target of 1.2 million but surpassing the 2019 total of 974,000 arrivals.

October’s total surpassed the prior record – $800.3 million set this September – by 11.5%. It was also 19.3% ahead of the $748.1 million wagered in October 2024, figures from the Massachusetts Gaming Commission showed.

Players spent $879.2 million betting online and a further $12.6 million at retail sportsbooks.

As for revenue, the October total amounted to $71.3 million. This comfortably surpassed the prior October by 47.6% and September’s haul by 36.3%. However, taxable gaming revenue fell some way short of the all-time high of $96.4 million, set in January 2025.

Online wagers accounted for $70.7 million of all sports betting revenue during the month, with retail contributing just $598,901.

Based on these figures, the monthly statewide hold for Massachusetts was 7.99%.

Massachusetts was by no means the only state to see betting handle reach a record level in October. Pennsylvania also reported record betting activity, while betting revenue in Michigan hit an all-time high.

No stopping DraftKings in Massachusetts

Turning to operators, DraftKings remained the online market leader in its home state by some margin. Taking $38.5 million off $447.4 million in bets meant a hold of 8.61%.

FanDuel was again the closest challenger, posting $17.3 million in revenue from a $237.3 million handle, resulting in a 7.38% hold. Fanatics moved up a place to third with $7.5 million off $82.4 million for a 9.1% hold.

BetMGM took $3.6 million in revenue from handle of $55 million, which meant a hold of 6.55%. ESPN Bet followed with $2.1 million from $27.7 million for a 7.58% hold. Next was Caesars at $1.4 million off $25 million, meaning a 5.6% hold.

Bally Bet was the only other online operator, taking $314,452 from $4.8 million for a 6.69% monthly hold.

As for the land-based market, Plainridge Park Casino narrowly took top spot with $306,328 in revenue. Based on a $5.4 million handle, this meant a hold of 5.72%. Encore Boston Harbor posted $292,573 off $6 million for a 4.91% hold, but MGM Springfield failed to post any revenue despite a $1.3 million handle.

Massachusetts casino revenue exceeds $96 million

In terms of casino gaming activity, total revenue for the month was $96.9 million. This beat last year by 2.3% and September by 1.3%.

Gross gaming revenue from slots topped $71.7 million while table games revenue hit $25.1 million. Encore Boston Harbor was the market leader with $57.6 million in casino revenue, ahead of MGM with $24.1 million and Plainridge Park with $15.2 million.

Looking to tax revenue, the total collected by the state in October was $42.1 million. This included $27.9 million from casino gaming and $14.2 million from sports betting.

A new general betting duty for remote betting will be introduced in April 2027 at 25%, up from the current rate of 15%. However, the new rate will only be paid on online betting profit and exclude spread betting, pool bets and horse racing bets.  

Bets made at self-service betting terminals will also be spared from the new rate.

The chancellor had been hinting at a gambling tax increase in recent months, after an initial consultation was launched in April to consolidate the current three tax rates: remote gaming duty, remote betting duty, and gaming machine duty.

The new rates are expected to raise £4 billion in tax receipts in 2025-26, marking a 9.8% increase on last year. In 2026-27, gambling tax receipts will increase by a further 24.8% to £5 billion.

Elsewhere in the budget, it was announced the current 10% rate for bingo duty will be abolished and casino gaming duty bands will be frozen in 2026-2027.  

The government said it expected operators to pass on up to 90% of the duty increases to consumers by increasing prices or reducing payouts. This, it said, will lead to a reduction in consumer demand which reduces the yield from the measure by £500 million by 2029-30.   

How have we gotten here?

In April HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) and the Treasury proposed a single remote gambling tax to replace the current three-rate system. The sector hit back at the suggestion, flagging the impact a rise in remote betting duty would have, particularly on the retail and horse racing sectors.

Various think tanks got involved in the conversation, proposing the government raise the remote gaming duty to as high as 50%.

Since then, the Treasury Select Committee carried out an investigation into what format a gambling tax restructure, or hike, should take. It questioned various sector stakeholders and think tank experts in October about the impact a tax hike could have on problem gambling rates.

It also quizzed members of the BGC on why many operators maintain offshore bases and whether the sector was overstating its concerns for their retail businesses.

In its follow-up report, the committee advised the government to tax verticals separately based on their risk profile.

In October, Allwyn announced it would combine with OPAP to create a business worth €16 billion ($18.5 billion). Allwyn will hold a 78.5% economic interest in the new company, with OPAP taking 21.5%.

Allwyn currently owns a 51.78% share of the total holding in OPAP through KKCG, its controlling shareholder, which first invested in OPAP in 2013. The merger is expected to close in H1 of 2026.

“For Allwyn, this represents the natural next milestone in our journey, with a public market listing expanding our capital markets access to equity markets and elevating the profile of Allwyn’s global platform,” Chvatal said.

Speaking during the operator’s earnings call, Chvatal said these agreements, coupled with the group focusing on establishing Allwyn as a consumer-facing brand, would prepare the business for further growth and strategic process over the coming years.

“We see the introduction of a single brand as an important enabler of our growth strategy, allowing us to connect with new audiences in new and existing markets and to achieve marketing synergies across the group,” he said.

“Our progress so far this year reinforces the strength of our proven strategy and, looking forward, we are well prepared to deliver the next phase of our growth story and further strategic progress.”

M&A drive

This was not the only M&A activity in recent months at Allwyn. In September, it agreed to acquire a majority stake in daily fantasy sports operator PrizePicks. Allwyn will acquire a 62.3% stake in PrizePicks, paying an initial cash consideration of $1.6 billion.

There was also an agreement to acquire a 51% majority stake in Logflex MT Holding Limited, the owner of online sports betting and gaming group Novibet, in H1. In addition, Allwyn will sell land-based casino assets in Germany and Australia and has acquired the remaining minority stake in Greece- and Cyprus-facing online operator Stoiximan.

Lottery remains king for Allwyn

Breaking down its Q3 results, total group revenue for the three months to 30 September reached €2.20 billion. This was 4% higher than the previous year.

Of this total, €2.12 billion was classed as gross gaming revenue, surpassing last year by 5%. Net revenue for the group in Q3 also climbed 5% year-on-year to €1.02 billion.

Again, lottery drew the most revenue at €551 million, a rise of 7%. Video lottery terminal (VLT) and casino revenue increased 6% to €139 million while sports betting revenue was 3% higher.

Allwyn drew €120 million from iGaming operations, up 2% from 2024. Incidentally, total online net gaming revenue for the quarter reached €343 million, some 8% more than last year. An additional €84 million was noted in revenue from non-gaming activities, which was level year-on-year.

Geographically, Continental Europe remains the group’s primary source of revenue at €729 million, up 6% year-on-year. This covers operations in Austria, Czech Republic, Greece, Cyprus and Italy. Within the region, Allwyn noted a “strong” lottery performance and “solid” growth in sports betting and VLTs and casinos.

In the UK, where Allwyn operates the National Lottery, revenue also increased by 6% to €250 million. Allwyn said digital was a key growth driver, with online gross gaming revenue up 10%, while it was also helped by high jackpots in the EuroMillions and targeted promotional activity.

However, it was North America where growth was most apparent. Revenue for the region was 15% higher at €55 million, helped by the consolidation of Instant Win Gaming stake in September last year.

Customer-friendly sports results hit Q3 earnings

Despite an upward revenue trend across the business in Q3, the same could not be said for earnings. Adjusted EBITDA for the period was 8% lower year-on-year at €374 million.

Allwyn said this was mainly due to a lower contribution from equity method investees, down €36 million from last year. This was driven by Betano, the performance of which was affected by customer-friendly sports results in September.

The group also noted the impact of recurring non-operating items that supported results in the comparative period. Simplification of the group structure on corporate costs increased €14 million year-on-year, hitting earnings this year.

Allwyn did not publish a full breakdown of its bottom-line performance but did reveal data for the year to date. In the nine months to the end of September, total revenue was €6.65 billion, up 6% from last year.

Of this, €6.39 billion went through as gross gaming revenue, 6% more than last year. Net revenue for the period topped €2.99 billion, which was 5% more than at the same point in 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA for the year-to-date came in at €1.09 billion, level with last year’s figure.

OPAP also reports Q3 growth

Just hours before Allwyn released its Q3 preliminary results, OPAP also published its figures for the quarter. These revealed a 6.6% increase in gross gaming revenue to €602.9 million, while net revenue jumped 6% to €409.9 million.

OPAP said the revenue rise was mainly due to the performance of its Tzoker lottery game and “robust” growth from its Powerspin offering.

Lottery gross gaming revenue climbed by 9.8% to €219.6 million, helped by a record Tzoker jackpot during August. Instant and passives revenue was also 10.8% higher year-on-year at €24.9 million, while VLT revenue was up 6.0% to €88.4 million.

There was a slight decline in sports betting revenue, with this down 0.7% to €180.1 million. Again, this was on the back of customer-friendly sporting results that impacted the wider market in September.

As for iGaming, growth showed no signs of slowing down as revenue increased 14.4% to €89.8 million. OPAP referenced “strong demand for gaming experiences” among players as the reason for ongoing growth in this segment.

Uptick in net profit for OPAP

Looking towards the bottom line, gross profit from gaming was 4.8% higher at €253.4 million in Q3. Operating expenses increased 10.9% to €111.6 million, although revenue growth meant EBITDA edged up 0.5% to €214.2 million.

Net profit for the quarter topped €127.9 million, an increase of 6.1%. In addition, recurring net profit at OPAP was 2.9% higher at €129.9 million.

For the year-to-date, gross gaming revenue in the nine months to 30 September was 6.5% ahead at €1.76 billion. Net gaming revenue also increased by 6.3% to €1.20 billion.

Other key year-to-date figures include gross gaming profit of €740.4 million, up 6.9%, and higher EBITDA of €612.6 million, a rise of 4.4%. Net profit climbed 6.3% to €361.3 million, with recurring net profit up 4.4% to €363.3 million.

“Overall, profitability has risen in tandem with healthy margins and a solid cash position,” OPAP CEO Jan Karas said. “These positive trends reinforce our confidence in achieving our outlook for FY2025, as well as our broader strategic and business goals.

“In this context, we are working toward a strong finish to the year and are looking forward to operating in 2026 under the new brand of Allwyn, which will mark a new era of growth opportunities, innovation and best-in-class gaming entertainment experiences for our customers.”

The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported on Tuesday that the state reaped $1.35 billion in gross gaming revenue in October, a 5% increase year-over-year. The Strip came roaring back from a September decline to post GGR of $748 million, an 8% jump YoY.

Through the first four months of the fiscal year, the Strip is +3.3% above its pace of a year ago. America’s gambling capital is now on track for its fourth YoY gain in the last five fiscal years.

Despite the uptick in revenue, tourism numbers for October were lacklustre again. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported that citywide visitation slid 4.4% to 3.4 million for the month. That continues a streak of 13 months without a YoY visitation gain of more than 1%.

The Strip was down in all of its metrics, including total occupancy (-2%), average daily rates (-5.5%) and revenue per available room (-7%).

Convention attendance, driven in part by the industry’s annual Global Gaming Expo, was up 8% YoY to 603,600. Yet that too was perhaps underwhelming in the sense that it was markedly lower than 2023 (640,000) and 2022 (628,000).

Baccarat again powers success on the Strip

From a business perspective, the Strip has been heavily reliant for many months on boom-or-bust baccarat performance to help mask other declines.

Such was the case in October – Strip casinos won $116 million on the game, an eye-popping 69% gain from last year. For context, that one total is more than any other market reported as a whole except for the Las Vegas locals segment.

The vacillating performance of the game is illustrated by the fact that the Strip is +20% on baccarat in the past three months but just +2% in the past 12. October’s strong table game performance was enough to overcome a 2.3% decline in slot revenue, a rarity for the market.

Table games consultant Bill Zender explained that the amount of money being wagered on baccarat is what actually makes for the up-and-down performance. The gameplay itself is “pretty level”, he said, in the sense that it is mostly one-to-one or one-to-0.95 payouts versus high-multiple payouts and side bets that are possible in other games like blackjack, craps and roulette.

“Baccarat is not really a volatile game,” Zender told iGB. “What makes it volatile is the amount of money wagered on it. I think, for the bigger players, they have to be going in excess of $100,000 max bet in some of the bigger clubs.”

That dynamic would fall in line with overall Las Vegas tourism and revenue trends of bringing in fewer players but making more from them.

F1 race arrives at time of need for Las Vegas tourism

This past weekend, Formula One (F1) fans flocked to southern Nevada for the third instalment of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, which resulted in another dominant win for Red Bull’s Max Verstappen. Verstappen has won two of the three Las Vegas races and managed to climb even higher up the F1 season standings after McLaren drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were disqualified post-race for car-related violations.

Gaming stakeholders were counting on a boost from the third annual race after seeing a significant stepdown in economic impact from year one to year two. The first race generated an estimated $1.5 billion in impact, as opposed to just under $1 billion last year, though the first year was boosted by infrastructure costs paid by F1 parent Liberty Media.

LVCVA CEO Steve Hill told the Las Vegas Review-Journal after this year’s race that he expects the event to post “at least” $1 billion in impact.

MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle thanked local residents for their patience in dealing with construction and noted there are more issues still to be resolved. Still, he stressed how important the international event has become for Las Vegas tourism, especially during what was previously among the slower weekends of the year.

“Obviously for our high-end guests and our high-end corporate partners, it pays off,” Hornbuckle told the Review-Journal. “We’ve been at this now for our third year, and we did invest a lot of money in what I call our big erector set out front here (of the Bellagio), so it takes a couple of months to bring up and take down. But it’s all worth it. It may seem for three days that it’s kind of crazy, and it is, but it is all worth it, I can promise you.”

In total, consumers in Ontario spent CA$9.25 billion (US$6.56 billion) on iGaming last month. This beat the previous record of $8.55 billion, set in September, by 8% and surpassed the prior October’s total spend by 24%.

Data from iGaming Ontario showed online casino games remain the most popular form of iGaming among Ontarians by some margin. Players spent $7.89 billion in total, which accounted for 85% of the entire market.

Internet sports betting drew $1.23 billion in wagers, or 13% of the overall spend and 16% more than September. However, online poker wagers dipped 9% month-on-month to $131 million in October.

Ontario iGaming revenue surpassed $360 million

Turning to revenue, non-adjusted gross revenue from iGaming during October was $367.7 million. This was 9% more than the previous record of $338 million in May 2025.

October’s total was also up 38% up year-on-year and 12% ahead of September this year,

Revenue from online casino topped $303.8 million, up 9% from September. Sports betting revenue climbed 25% month-on-month, while online poker revenue was 10% higher at $5.6 million despite a fall in spending.

iGaming Ontario also reported that active player accounts for the month totalled 1.3 million, up 9% from September. Average revenue per player account edged up 2% to $286 for the month.

FanDuel, BetMGM, Bet365 and BetRivers are among the major operators active in the province.

In its pre-budget preparations, which included a Select Committee meeting with industry stakeholders and think tank representatives, the Treasury has raised concerns around parts of the UK sector being based offshore in hubs like Gibraltar and Malta.

During its meeting in October, the committee probed Betting & Gaming Council CEO Grainne Hurst and Tax Committee Chair Stephen Hodgson on why many UK-facing gambling firms maintained an offshore presence.

The committee’s suggestion was that companies were based offshore to avoid corporation tax in the UK. But Hignett explains the reasoning is much more nuanced.  

“There’s a history as to why different parts of the industry are offshore and some are onshore, which needs to be understood to sort of realise how we got here,” says Hignett.

“They’re there for reasons that are well explained,” he adds. Hignett notes that operators have flitted between having offshore and onshore bases for years, to ensure they can compete on equal footing.

Dynamic regulatory environment

Additionally, in the UK remote gambling was illegal until the 2005 Gambling Act came into force in 2007. During this period mobile and online betting was increasing in popularity and operators remained or returned offshore to leverage this opportunity across Europe.

“If you’re an operator in 2007, the question is ‘Why would you come onshore voluntarily, when all of your competitors remain offshore?’ You’re volunteering to pay a whole load of taxes that’s just going to put you at a massive competitive disadvantage,” Hignett tells iGB.

“I can tell you about some of the musings of the Court of Appeal, in particular income tax cases where they look at gambling companies that have gone offshore and said, ‘We kind of understand why you went offshore, because everyone else had gone offshore, and therefore you would be the only people paying duty in the UK when the rules were like that’. So they were pretty sympathetic of that.”

But the Treasury has made some progress in better understanding the sector, he suggests. “You can see that in the differences between the Treasury Select Report and the rather blunt [gambling tax] consultation earlier in the year. But I think they’ve got a way to go to really understand those differences,” Hignett says.

A long way since the consultation

The consultation was launched in April by the Treasury, requesting stakeholder feedback on the current three-rate, profit-based tax system for operators. The initial report hinted at consolidating the three rates into one single rate across all verticals.

But stakeholders largely objected to this idea, as it would raise betting duty from 15% to 21%, in line with Remote Gaming Duty. This could hugely impact, and possibly decimate, the retail betting and horse racing industries.

Various other policies were then suggested by think tanks, including increasing remote gaming duty to 50%, and machine games duty from 20%. But we won’t know which the government has settled on until Wednesday’s budget session.

“If anyone has the ability to sort of shoulder an increase in tax, it’s probably not various people within the general betting duty camp — you know, the high street shops, particularly bookmakers, who are taking bets on horse racing, where they’ve got to pay the levy as well,” Hignett reflects on the initial consultation.

“The industry reacted badly to this consultation, thinking it wasn’t a very good idea, because I think it was based on a false premise, which was essentially, because various types of gambling can be consumed online they must be sufficiently similar, and therefore we can merge them all together.”

Taxes on high-risk verticals in the UK

In its report following the Select Committee meeting, the Treasury has advised the government to consider increasing the tax for high-risk verticals, like online casino.

“I think they are on a journey and I think they’ve probably got a way to go, because what we’re looking at is a very complex ecosystem,” Hignett says of the committee’s meeting and subsequent findings.

“The Treasury select interview process was really interesting because it was meant to be all about gambling tax policy,” he adds. “And most of the questions that were being thrown, particularly of the BGC, were more regulatory-related questions and around gambling creating social ills. I think everyone accepts that. That’s why it’s regulated, to try and make sure we can control that.”

When could a new gambling tax policy come into force?

On the timeline for a potential gambling tax hike, Hignett says the chancellor has a choice on when to introduce a new policy that is announced during the budget.

“She will either bring them into effect from midnight of Budget Day or from the beginning of the next financial year. If it’s a transactional tax, like capital gains tax or a tax on transactions like stamp duties, rate rises often take effect from midnight.

“For the types of gambling duty that we have been talking about, rate rises often take effect from the start of the next financial year (this is what happened when RGD was increased from 15% to 21%, with effect from 1 April 2019). As regards rule changes (rather than just rate changes), these will typically come into effect on a date prescribed in the Finance Act that enacts those rule changes.”

He says a date for operators to formally change their systems could be included in the budget speech.

The Federal Revenue Service in Brazil published its monthly tax update on Monday. The BRL1.09 billion figure was 9.4% lower than the BRL1.21 billion generated in September.

However, it did take the total market tax contribution to BRL7.95 billion for the year. This is the latest indicator the market has reaped sizeable financial benefits since regulation launched in Brazil on 1 January.

Brazil government set to vote on tax increase on Wednesday

The tax situation for the regulated Brazil betting sector could change imminently, with a vote scheduled on Wednesday for the current rate to be doubled.

Currently, the tax rate on GGR stands at 12%. However, operators have to pay a number of other taxes, meaning their overall rate is in excess of 40%.

The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee is expected to vote on PL 5,473/2025 on Wednesday, with the bill doubling the tax rate to 24%.

If it is approved the bill will go straight to the Chamber of Deputies, unless an appeal is made for the Senate plenary to vote on it.

The bill is facing opposition, however, with a previous vote postponed reportedly due to the Chamber of Deputies President Hugo Motta stating the proposal would fail to have the required support to pass.

Brazil government intent on hiking gambling taxes

With an election looming next year, President Lula’s administration appears determined to increase gambling taxation as it seeks to hit its fiscal targets.

The government recently faced a major setback when its provisional measure proposing a 50% hike in gambling taxes failed.

According to Brazilian iGaming analyst Elvis Lourenço, this defeat has triggered renewed and increasingly urgent efforts by the administration to push tax rates even higher.

“That’s the main reason that they struck back so fast, because it was embarrassing for them,” Lourenço, managing partner of EX7 Partners, previously told iGB.

“This becomes an election agenda, because this is good for the audience and the public to get votes because we are a conservative country in some ways. So, to put this on their agenda, ‘we increase the taxes of the billionaires, of the gambling world’, it is good for the speech of the actual government.”

Lourenço warns that doubling the current tax rate would be an “insane” decision, one that could jeopardise the regulated market.

Gross gambling revenue in Pennsylvania from all types of commercial gaming reached $597 million in October, according to the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board (PGCB). This surpassed the same month last year by 20.2% and was 11.4% higher than this September.

While record iGaming revenue was the headline figure in the month, the sports betting haul also turned heads. This followed a disappointing September when sports betting revenue fell to a six-month low.

Pennsylvania iCasino revenue jumps 32.8%

Starting with online casinos, revenue in this segment was 32.8% higher year-on-year. It was also a new state record, surpassing the previous all-time high – $238.2 million in March 2025 – by 5.4%.

Of this, $190.8 million came from online slots, 35.5% ahead of the previous year. Internet table games revenue climbed 25.7% to $57.7 million and online poker revenue was 13.6% higher at $2.5 million.

Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course and its online gaming partners again led the market. Their monthly revenue reached $98.7 million, up 42.2% from last year.

Valley Forge Casino Resort and partners remained second with $71.4 million, 37.5% ahead of October 2024. 40.8%. Rivers Casino Philadelphia completed the top three with $38.2 million, an increase of 15%.

Pennsylvania was not the first state to report record revenue from the online sector in October. Both New Jersey and Michigan saw revenue reach new heights during the month.

Record handle drives sports betting recovery

Turning to sports betting, revenue more than doubled year-on-year during October to $60.7 million. This included $56.2 million from online betting and a further $4.5 million from retail sportsbooks across Pennsylvania.

This was helped by player spending reaching a record $968.5 million. This beat the previous high of $935.5 million in November 2024 and was ahead of October last year by 9%. Last month, $926.1 million was bet online and $42.4 million at retail locations.

As such, monthly hold for the state stood at 6.27%.

Looking to operators, DraftKings and Hollywood Casino at the Meadows climbed into top spot in October by posting $21.8 million off a $300.1 million handle, resulting in a 7.26% hold.

FanDuel and Valley Forge Casino Resort, which typically lead, slipped to second. With $18.2 million in revenue from $357.6 million in bets, this left a hold of 5.09%. BetMGM and Hollywood Casino Morgantown remained third with $4 million off a $59.6 million handle for a hold of 6.71%.

Land-based slots remain king in Pennsylvania

While expansion within the iGaming market shows no signs of slowing in Pennsylvania, land-based slots remain a key source of gambling revenue. In October, revenue in this sector was 1.4% higher year-on-year at $203.5 million.

Retail table games revenue edged up 3% to $76.1 million but video gaming terminal dipped 1% to $3.5 million. The PGCB also noted a 1.1% drop in sports fantasy contest revenue to $2.1 million.

In terms of tax for state and local governments, $252.3 million was collected during the month. Of this, online casinos provided $112.7 million, sports betting $21.8 million, land-based slots $102.8 million and retail table games $12.8 million.

Revenue for the year was on par with 2023, data from national regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) showed. The published figures cover both online and land-based gambling, including casinos, sports betting and lotteries.

It was bad news for land-based casinos, which have been in steady decline since the Covid-19 pandemic. Revenue for the sector as a whole was 5.5% lower at €1.30 billion but still represented 30% of the total market.

Physical slot machine revenue dropped 5.4% to €654.4 million. However, machines placed in Holland Casino venues also posted a rise, with revenue edging up 0.5% to €396.1 million. Table games revenue, meanwhile, fell 9.3% to €247.6 million.

The KSA also reported a decline in the number of player positions in most land-based venues. Arcade machine player positions dropped 15% to 20,997, while Holland Casino places fell 0.3% to 6,233. There was, however, an uptick in machines in “catering” venues, with the total rising 17.35% to 7,992.

As was the case in 2023, lotteries drew the most revenue at €1.5 billion, a year-on-year rise of 3.%. This represented 34% of total gambling revenue for the year, while lottery turnover edged up 4.2% to €2.43 billion.

Dutch online casino revenue edges down

Elsewhere, the KSA reported a 1.1% drop in revenue from online casino in 2024. It did not publish a breakdown for the area but did note that the segment drew 26% of total market revenue for the year.

Turning to sports betting, growth was reported across both the online and land-based areas. Online sports betting revenue increased 17.7% to €352.6 million while land-based revenue was 27.4% higher at €77.1 million for the year.

Horse racing accounted for just €3.9 million of the online total, with the rest spread across other sports. It also generated €1.6 million worth of online revenue.

Land-based player losses continue to outweigh online

Player losses data was also released by the KSA in its update on Thursday. On average, players lost €197 each from land-based gambling during the year, only slightly lower than €198 in 2023. In contrast, online loss reached an average of €101, up from €99 in the previous year.

As for tax, the total collected for the year topped €1.03 billion. Despite a decline in revenue, land-based casinos generated the most income for the country. In total, tax from land-based casino activity in 2024 was €396.1 million, only slightly lower than 2023.

Online casino followed with a tax contribution of €342 million, up 2.2%, then lotteries with €156.3 million. Internet sports betting generated €107.5 million in tax and land-based betting €23.4 million.

Tax is very much a hot topic of discussion in the Netherlands at present, with another gambling tax rise on the horizon. From 1 January 2026, operators will be taxed at a rate of 37.8% of gross gaming revenue. Operators already faced an increase to 34.2%, which came into effect in January 2025.

Brazil has captured much of the gambling sector’s interest this year after regulation launched on 1 January, with a number of international giants entering the market.

One such company was Flutter, which created its new Flutter Brazil business after acquiring a 56% stake in NSX, the parent company of Brazil-facing brand Betnacional.

That deal was concluded in May and, in Q3, Flutter achieved $87 million in revenue from its Brazil venture. This was 412% higher than the $17 million it generated in the same quarter last year prior to the completion of the NSX deal, which largely came from its existing Betfair business.

But while Betnacional achieved record iGaming revenues in Q3, excluding M&A Flutter’s revenue during the quarter was actually down 18%, which Flutter attributed to the fact that Betfair Brazil was still continuing its recovery from the friction derived from the re-registration required at the start of regulation in January.

Despite the Betfair struggles, Flutter CEO Peter Jackson remains confident the company will succeed in Brazil.

“Brazil is an exciting growth opportunity for Flutter and we retain a strong conviction that scale operators with the best products will win the largest share of the market,” Jackson said in the Q3 report.

Entain hampered by poor sports margin

Entain, meanwhile, enjoyed a successful transition to the regulated market with its Sportingbet brand, reporting a 21% year-on-year NGR rise in Brazil during H1.

But Q3 was a different story, with NGR in Brazil down 11% despite 14% volume growth.

Entain deputy CEO and CFO Rob Wood put this down to “genuine bad luck from sports results”, stating the company is still trading on the right side of expectations when it comes to volume.

He expects sports margin to normalise over time, with the volume growth demonstrating why Flutter continues to be enthused about its future in Brazil.

It’s not just sports betting where Entain struggled during Q3, however, with Wood saying slow game authentication has hampered the company’s iGaming efforts in Brazil.

“iGaming is not particularly strong at the moment and all the growth is coming from sports,” Wood said on the earnings call. “We think this is a market-wide phenomenon, not just Entain.

“The good news is we think there’s a lot more growth to come out of gaming as we look forward. But so far in 2025, it’s been slow.”

BetMGM investing heavily in Brazil

Last August, MGM Resorts International struck a partnership with Grupo Globo, LatAm’s largest media group, to introduce the BetMGM brand to the Brazilian market as a joint venture.

The company has stated on a number of occasions that it is aiming to reach 10% market share in Brazil, and it reiterated this target in its Q3 presentation.

MGM achieved “strong growth” in Brazil during Q3 without giving direct figures. The company is focused on efficiently building brand awareness and customer acquisition, powered by its on-the-ground team led by MGM Brazil CEO Almir Ribeiro.

However, MGM Resorts International CFO Jonathan Halkyard said the company’s heavy investment in Brazil will likely lead to MGM Digital reaching an EBITDA loss of close to $100 million for the year.

Halkyard explained the company’s investment is in line with its roughly 50% stake in the JV, which is already showing positive signs.

“The venture has seen encouraging growth quarter-over-quarter throughout the year in active players, deposits and GGR,” Halkyard said on the company’s earnings call.

Record LatAm casino revenue for Betsson in Q3

Betsson continues to make significant efforts in LatAm, launching in Brazil and Paraguay during 2025 to add to its existing markets which include Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

It is proving a successful venture, with Betsson achieving year-on-year revenue growth of 10.2% to €76.5 million in LatAm over Q3.

This was powered by record casino revenue in the region, rising from €46.1 million in Q3 2024 to €56.6 million in the same period this year.

Casino growth helped to offset a year-on-year drop in sportsbook revenue from €23.1 million to €19.8 million. Betsson put this down to tough comparisons with last year’s Q3 which included the European Championship and Copa America football tournaments.

LatAm accounted for 26% of Betsson’s revenue in Q3, down from 28% in Q2.

Betsson CEO Pontus Lindwall pointed to Argentina, Peru and Colombia as key areas of focus, with the former continuing to show strong underlying growth in terms of deposits and turnover.

Codere Online positioned to become a leading player

Codere Online is currently operating in the LatAm markets of Mexico, Colombia and Panama, as well as certain provinces in Argentina.

Its current total addressable market (TAM) is €4.8 billion, although it noted in its Q3 presentation the combined TAM of online expansion markets, which includes Brazil, Peru and Uruguay, could be €8.4 billion by 2029.

In the presentation, the company said: “Codere Online is especially well positioned to become a leading player across the region.”

Mexico continues to be Codere Online’s biggest market, achieving market revenue of €26.8 million in Q3. This is ahead of the €22 million generated in its home market of Spain.

However, with Mexico’s government weighing up increasing the gambling tax rate from 30% to 50%, Codere Online said it may have to reconsider its investment into the market.

Outgoing CFO Oscar Iglesias, who will shortly be replaced by Marcus Arildsson, expects the tax to come in from 1 January.

“The discussions around capital allocation, I think, is a broader one, and it’s in the context of the discussions we’re having at the board level,” Iglesias told analysts.

“The tax obviously factors into … our appetite and willingness to invest into the market because it has an impact on the unit economics, the flow-through of every dollar of NGR to EBITDA in the business.  

“It’s still a little bit early to say what that means in terms of our plans for next year to invest in Mexico.” 

Codere Online is also working under the assumption that the 19% VAT in Colombia, which is set to end from the start of 2026, will be renewed.

Codere Online Executive Vice Chairman Moshe Edree explained the operator’s short- to mid-term strategy “does not include Colombia”, echoing CEO Aviv Sher’s post-Q2 comments that the company was pulling back in the market.

RSI confident Colombia VAT won’t be renewed

But while Codere Online is expecting the VAT to be renewed, Rush Street Interactive CEO Richard Schwartz said on the company’s post-Q3 earnings call that the business is predicting the tax will be scrapped.

Rush Street Interactive followed many other operators in absorbing the tax through player bonusing. This meant in Q3, while GGR from Colombia grew over 50%, net revenue was down 27%. Revenue across LatAm fell 11%.

Despite this, Rush Street Interactive believes it holds second place in Colombia, while it also claims to be among the top seven operators in Mexico.

Monthly active users in LatAm during Q3 were up 30% year-on-year to around 415,000.

Rush Street Interactive listed Brazil, Ecuador, Argentina and Chile as potential expansion opportunities.

When asked on the earnings call whether the situation in Colombia may dampen the company’s interest in further LatAm expansion, Schwartz responded by saying the company was still excited by the region.

“We believe those markets are at the infancy of growth,” Schwartz said. “And as we see in our growth ourselves, there’s lots of opportunity there, and it’s a very large population across Latin America that are in the process of or will be legalising online gaming in the future. So we certainly remain very excited for it.”

Kambi lowers FY2025 guidance due to slow Brazil progress

In its Q3 report, Kambi announced it was lowering its full-year 2025 guidance from an adjusted EBITDA of €20 million-€25 million to approximately €17 million.

The company said this was in part down to the Brazilian market developing more slowly than expected, with CFO David Kenyon stating the company isn’t seeing the growth in Brazil it had “hoped for”.

Kambi CEO Werner Becher said on the earnings call that while the Brazil market is continuously growing, he believes the overall pre-regulation market size was overstated.

“There’s a little bit of disappointment, I would say, in the entire industry about the Brazilian market,” Becher claimed.

“The legalised regulated market grew slower than expected because the black market is still very big there.”

Player spending was up 16.3% year-on-year, figures from the Arizona Department of Gaming showed. The September total was also 39.4% ahead of the $610.7 million spent in August of this year.

Of this, $847 million was bet online, while players spent $4.4 million at retail sportsbooks across the state.

As to revenue, however, adjusted gross receipts before free bet and promotional deductions reached $55 million. This, calculated after operators paid out $794.3 million in winnings, fell 28.9% short of last year and was 8.2% behind August.

After deducting $35.4 million in free bets and promotional credits, final adjusted revenue for September was $19.6 million, the lowest monthly total since July 2022. This was also 48% less than the same month last year and 53.1% behind this August.

In terms of the state’s hold, based on revenue before free bet deductions, this was 6.46%. After promotional-related deductions, hold was just 2.3%.

FanDuel still the one to beat in Arizona

As for active operators, FanDuel again led the market in September. It posted $8.5 million in adjusted revenue off $254.5 million in bets for a monthly hold of 3.34%.

DraftKings remained second with $4.3 million in adjusted revenue but with a larger handle of $270.2 million. This resulted in a September hold of 1.59%.

Not far behind in third was BetMGM, which took $4.2 million in adjusted revenue off $98.3 million in sports bets for a 4.07% hold. Caesars followed with $1.7 million from $45.5 million, resulting in a hold of 3.74%.

No other operator was able to post six-figure adjusted revenue. Fanatics, which was fourth in revenue terms in August, failed to report any revenue, while Bet365 also drew a blank for the month.

Tax-wise, sports betting generated $1.9 million for Arizona in September. All but $79,416 of this came from online betting.

Michigan surpassed by 12.7% the previous record of $312.5 million set in August this year for combined online casinos and sports betting. Revenue, referred to by the Michigan Gaming Control Board as gross online gambling receipts, was also 38.9% ahead of October 2024 and 16.4% more than September this year.

This was helped by record gross receipts from mobile casino play. In October, $278.5 million in gross revenue was drawn from this segment, a new monthly high and 26.2% more than last year.

As for online sports betting, gross revenue rocketed by 123.6% year-on-year to $73.8 million. This was one of the highest monthly totals since Michigan launched its legal market in August 2020.

In terms of adjusted gross receipts, which accounts for promotional spending, the market total was 49.1% higher than last year at $310.9 million. Adjusted icasino gross receipts climbed 31.8%, while adjusted sport betting gross receipts jumped 397%.

The regulator also published data on player spending within the sports betting market. In October, the handle reached $605.9 million, an increase of 8.1%. This meant Michigan ended the month with a hold of 12.18% based on gross receipts and 8.12% for adjusted revenue.

FanDuel and MotorCity continue to lead in Michigan

Looking to operators, FanDuel and MotorCity retained top spot in the online casino market. In total, the partnership generated $76 million in gross revenue and $71.4 million in adjusted revenue.

MGM and BetMGM remained second with $68.8 million and $64.7 million in gross and adjusted revenue, respectively. DraftKings and the Bay Mills Indian Community were again third with $44.7 million and $42.1 million.

FanDuel and MotorCity also led the way in the online sports betting market in Michigan. The duo took $29.9 million in gross receipts and $17.5 million adjusted receipts. Based on gross revenue and a $230.5 million handle, this left a hold of 12.97%.

DraftKings posted the second-highest gross revenue monthly total at $21.4 million and $16.8 million in adjusted revenue. Hold, based on gross receipts and $180.5 million in wagers, was 11.86%.

BetMGM completed the top three with $10.7 million in gross revenue and adjusted revenue of $7.3 million. Having processed $70.5 million in bets, hold for the month was 15.18%.

Tax-wise, the state took $58 million from online gambling activities. This included $54.6 million from casinos and $3.4 million in sports betting payments. A further $15 million was paid to the city of Detroit by its three commercial casino operators, while tribal payments topped $6.5 million,

Detroit casino revenue back above $100 million

Data for the three land-based casinos in Detroit was also made public. In October, they posted $107.4 million in revenue, up 4.4% year-on-year and 8.6% more than September.

Revenue from slots and table games edged up 2.2% to $105.9 million. However, qualified adjusted gross receipts from sports betting revenue fell 33.3% to $1.6 million. Monthly sports betting hold, after $13.5 million in bets, was 11.59%.

MGM Grand Detroit retained its healthy lead in the city with a 49% market share. MotorCity Casino followed with 29%, then Hollywood Casino at Greektown with 22%.

The campaign is crammed with evocative imagery: coin-pushers on sea promenades, bookies wedged between the chip shop and the newsagent, fruit machines with glowing buttons that evoke the warm memory of holidays. The Sun’s 8.7 million daily readers are told this is not actually about taxation, but an attack on “our way of life”. 

It is safe to say that what began as a technical fiscal recalibration has become a noisy public brawl about British culture, high-street decline and, not least, the right to personal choice and a harmless flutter. 

As Matt Chapman, The Sun’s racing columnist, writes: “By slamming the betting industry government will indirectly be telling you how you can – or in this case can’t – spend your money.” 

Farage enters culture war 

For a long time, arguments over gambling regulations and taxation have been contained among think-tanks, industry consultants and the occasional treasury committee hearing. But now the Labour government’s plan to overhaul gambling duties and increase taxes on remote gambling duties – with proposals reaching as high as 50% of gross gaming revenue (GGR) – is drawing strong reactions. 

Part harm-reduction exercise, part revenue-raising manoeuvre has collided with national nostalgia and The Sun, never shy about riding a political wave – as seen in its successful pro-Brexit campaigning in the run-up to the 2016 referendum – is very much pushing the debate. 

Protecting high-street livelihoods

The newspaper has said its campaign is a defence of punters and high-street livelihoods. This is an argument in line with that of gambling industry bodies such as the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) who have warned of job losses of up to 40,000 and a £3 billion blow to the economy if the proposed tax hikes come into force. The sector has also been extremely vocal about high-street bookmakers facing an existential threat if a higher Remote Gaming Duty is enforced.

The Sun’s ‘Save our Bets’ activism has immediately attracted support from the right of the political spectrum, most notably from Nigel Farage, whose Reform UK party is currently the most popular party in the UK. More than a third of voters have said they would vote Reform UK if there were elections today, according to polling data.  

Farage’s constituency of Clacton-on-Sea in Essex is a seaside town that very much thrives on summer tourism – ripe with bingo halls, slot machines and gambling opportunities that play an integral part of the town’s entertainment offerings. Farage has called Labour’s tax plans an assault on British culture. He believes a betting tax hike will do nothing to help problem gamblers. 

Leader of the Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch has also spoken out against Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ plans designed to help fill a financial black hole. Badenoch accuses Labour’s “fun police” of taking a “nanny state approach” to betting, which she said could kill off the industry. 

Sun’s campaign evokes mixed feelings 

But the campaign has not been received entirely well by some within the gambling industry. “I’m uneasy about how the debate has been positioned,” says Dan Waugh of Regulus Partners, one of the sector’s most respected analysts. “This childish idea that gambling is a battle between good and evil has taken hold.”  

But Farage’s involvement, he concedes, is legitimate – he leads the most popular party in the polls after all. And as Waugh points out: “The Liberal Democrats and the Greens, for example, have developed positions that are explicitly anti-gambling. It would be worrying if none of the political parties were prepared to stand up for people who enjoy betting, bingo and horse racing.” 

Waugh does not approve of the spectacle into which policy has been conscripted. “The issues are complex,” he says. “We’re not helped by the noise.” With The Sun’s campaign and the public debate growing louder, the situation could perhaps offer a chance to improve transparency and push for more evidence-based policy. It may also give the gambling industry an opening to publicly challenge the government’s tax proposals. 

Operator support for Sun’s ‘Save our Bets’

Neal Luke, a gambling compliance consultant, says the issue is twofold. While the Gambling Commission is investing heavily in data and research, most people will never read it. What matters is how that information shapes regulation – and how clearly the public can understand what’s been considered. 

“The public will only see headlines. It’s about making sure they know what’s been considered, in plain English, from a neutral place – not a political one.” Asked what a neutral source would look like, Luke argues that today’s opinions are shaped by short-form online content, making balanced communication more important than ever. 

Among operators there is a positive acceptance of The Sun’s war on the government’s plans and of Nigel Farage’s outbursts. For Betfred’s Head of Communications Mark Pearson, the message should be about one thing only. 

“For me this is not about media framing but getting the message across that the country’s betting shops are already in a very, very fragile position. Any hit on the high street is going to close betting shops with job losses and less money going to racing and the treasury. Once betting shops close, they are not coming back,” Pearson says.  

A spokesperson for Flutter UK&I also backs the media campaign. Putting taxes up for any business is not a free hit; it has consequences, he stresses. “It’s great to see The Sun’s ‘Save Our Bets’ campaign as it gives a voice to the customer – and customers have been overlooked in the debate driven by anti-gambling groups so far this year.” 

Think tanks push back industry claims 

The “anti-gambling groups” that Flutter UK&I refers to are primarily the think tanks The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Social Market Foundation. Both are pushing hard for a higher gambling tax. And both are heavily supported by several influential political voices, such as former Labour prime minister and chancellor Gordon Brown, who believes that the tax hike could help end child poverty in the UK, making the tax hike not merely a regulatory tool but a moral undertaking.  

“We tax cigarettes at 80%, we tax alcohol at 70%, but the online gambling tax is 21%. So there’s a big case for change. I think the gambling companies could well afford to pay a tax – and I want that money to go to child poverty,” he told Sky News. 

Dan Waugh of Regulus Partners worries that the entire debate, including the industry’s approach, has lost its anchor in evidence. And, in the end, a campaign led by a tabloid newspaper may not make things clearer. “Public debate is chaotic,” he says. “Statistics are misused across the board.” 

The most talked-about levy 

Grainne Hurst, the BGC’s CEO, attended the Reform UK conference earlier this year and was photographed alongside Farage, who in spite of popularity remains a divisive political figure. 

“It was a pleasure to lead the Betting and Gaming Council team at the Reform UK Conference this week. We had constructive discussions with senior figures in the party about the importance of a strong, sustainable and well-regulated betting and gaming sector,” Hurst wrote in a post on her LinkedIn page.  

Explaining the reason for her presence she added: “I will always stand up for our industry – one that supports 109,000 jobs, generates £6.8 billion for the economy, contributes £4 billion in tax and serves the millions of people who enjoy a bet responsibly.” 

‘Necessary lobbying’ for the sector

Waugh sees Grainne Hurst’s presence at Reform UK´s conference as a necessary part of the trade body’s lobbying efforts. “Operators should engage with a wide range of stakeholders, in my view. If anything, the industry has been far too passive in recent years in the face of an orchestrated campaign to close it down.” 

Others, who prefer not to speak on record, are less cheerful, noting that any perception of ideological capture could backfire while Labour is weighing its final tax design. What happens next will depend on whether Chancellor Rachel Reeves allows public clamour to overshadow the data on her desk.  

The government knows the gambling sector billions in tax revenue; it also knows online gambling has grown rapidly and that harms persist. It must weigh those realities against the possibility of shuttered shops, reduced racing revenue and a migration to offshore operators. 

For now, the noise grows as The Sun has succeeded in making gambling tax the most talked-about levy in Britain. Whether this results in better policy in the eyes of the industry – or simply more polarisation – remains to be seen. 

Following the failure of a provisional measure to increase the tax rate from 12% to 18%, new proposals were made in October to hike the current rate on gross gambling revenue to 24%.

An initial vote for the proposal was postponed earlier this month, prior to Tuesday’s meeting of the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) also being pushed back.

Reportedly, Chamber of Deputies President Hugo Motta believed the bill did not have the required support to pass. He informed Senate chief Davi Alcolumbre of his intention to prevent the bill from going to a vote. This ultimately led to CAE president Renan Calheiros cancelling the meeting.

It is expected that negotiations over what the bill includes will continue with a vote potentially scheduled for next week.

The bill also contains a higher social contribution on net profit for fintechs and other financial institutions.

However, it could be a long process, with 172 amendments to PL 5,473/2025 having already been presented in the CAE.

If the bill is approved, it will head straight to the Chamber of Deputies unless there is an appeal for it to be voted upon in the Senate plenary.

Brazil government determined to hike gambling tax

With a general election coming up next year, the government, led by President Lula, seems set on increasing gambling taxes to meet its fiscal targets.

The government suffered a humiliating defeat when its provisional measure to raise the gambling tax by 50% failed.

Brazilian iGaming analyst Elvis Lourenço has told iGB this has led to desperate continued attempts to raise the tax rate.

“That’s the main reason that they struck back so fast, because it was embarrassing for them,” Lourenço, managing partner of EX7 Partners, told iGB in October.

“This becomes an election agenda, because this is good for the audience and the public to get votes because we are a conservative country in some ways. So, to put this on their agenda, ‘we increase the taxes of the billionaires, of the gambling world’, it is good for the speech of the actual government.”

Lourenço believes doubling the current tax rate would be an “insane” move that could risk a collapse of the regulated market, which only launched on 1 January this year.

Total gambling revenue for the month amounted to $611.1 million, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement reported. This was 22.3% ahead of October 2024 and 8.4% ahead of this September.

iGaming was the main source of gambling revenue in New Jersey, ahead of the land-based and sports betting segments. However, it was the sports wagering market that reported the largest year-on-year growth.

Another iGaming record for New Jersey

Breaking down the monthly figures, iGaming revenue was 21.8% above last year’s total while clearing $250 million for the first time. It surpassed the state’s prior record – $248.8 million this August – by 4.8%.

Some $257.7 million of iGaming revenue came from online slots and table games, up 22% from last year. Peer-to-peer internet poker revenue also increased 11.1% to $2.6 million.

FanDuel and partner Golden Nugget remained the frontrunners in this market, posting $60.9 million in revenue. DraftKings and Resorts World were second at $48.5 million and BetMGM and the Borgata took third with $33.2 million.

Sports betting revenue rises 49.8% in October

Turning to sports betting, monthly revenue was 49.8% higher year-on-year at $116.1 million. Of this, $110.7 million came from online betting, up 45.9%, while retail revenue rocketed by 242.5% to $5.4 million.

In terms of customer spending, total handle for the month was $1.24 billion, a 10.7% increase from last October. This total included $1.19 billion in online wagers and retail spend of $43.8 million.

As such, New Jersey ended October 2025 with a statewide betting hold of 9.39%.

Operator-wise, FanDuel and Meadowlands again led the online sector, posting $39.9 million in revenue. DraftKings and Resorts World remained second at $30.5 million, followed by BetFanatics and Bally’s with $11.4 million.

As for retail locations, Meadowlands retained top spot with $2.3 million in revenue. Borgata was again its closest challenger, reporting $1.5 million in total monthly revenue. New Jersey does not publish handle information for individual operators.

Double-digit land-based casino growth

The remaining $234.7 million in revenue came from land-based casinos, up 12.5% from last year.

This included $174.4 million from physical slot machines, an increase of 9.1%. In addition, the land-based table games sector posted $60.3 million in revenue, some 23.5% higher than October 2024.

As for the year-to-date, total gambling revenue in New Jersey for the 10 months through the end of October was $5.74 billion. This was 10% higher than at the same point last year.

iGaming revenue was 22.6% higher at $2.39 billion, while sports betting revenue was 0.2% ahead at $914.6 million. Land-based casinos generated $2.44 billion in the same period, up 3.4% year-on-year.

First up, in the wake of Kevin Mullally stepping down as CEO of the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA), is online gambling in the UAE. Wynn Resorts is projecting revenue of around $3 billion to $5 billion, but how much could interactive gaming contribute?

Ed Birkin has some thoughts, with H2 Gambling Capital estimating the online offshore market share at around $185 million to $225 million currently. Assuming at least one licence per emirate, and the sports/iGaming mix, he’s expecting a bigger contribution from online onshore.

Right to the Source is on Apple Podcasts

Prediction markets and pie eating

Things take a pivot to prediction markets, which, thanks to an incident on the Coinbase earnings call, led to the story of Wayne Shaw. Yes, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong ended its Q3 analyst call by listing words that Kalshi and Polymarket users were betting he would say. Sorry, were predicting he would say.

Is that different from the former Sutton United goalie eating a pie on the bench during an FA Cup tie with Arsenal?

OPAP-Allwyn: Should we be getting excited?

We end with an argument on Allwyn acquiring OPAP outright. To Ed, there’s nothing to get excited about. To Robin, it’s what Allwyn might do next that’s of interest. 

Ever wanted to hear what the Olsen twins are up to now alongside exclusive data on the UAE online gambling market? There’s only one place you’ll get that.

Codere Online reported its Q3 earnings on Monday. It said net gaming revenue for the period had dropped slightly to €51.6 million from the €51.7 million reported last year. 

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was up €2.9 million or 93.3% compared to €1.5 million last year, with Codere Online reiterating its full-year NGR guidance of between €220 million-€230 million and adjusted EBITDA of €10 million-€15 million. 

The company’s NGR in Mexico was €26.8 million, a 0.4% year-on-year rise. Codere Online CEO Aviv Sher noted revenue had been flat in Mexico despite a 5% devaluation of the peso and a consistently low sports betting margin. 

However, Mexico is in the process of increasing its tax rate on gambling from 30% to 50%, as part of the government’s 2026 budget. 

The hike hasn’t yet been approved, but CFO Oscar Iglesias, who will shortly be replaced by Marcus Arildsson, expects it to come into effect from 1 January. 

“The discussions around capital allocation, I think, is a broader one, and it’s in the context of the discussions we’re having at the board level,” he told analysts during the earnings call, in response to questions on its position in the market.  

“The tax obviously factors into that in terms of our appetite and willingness to invest into the market because it has an impact on the unit economics, the flow-through of every dollar of NGR to EBITDA in the business.  

“It’s still a little bit early to say what that means in terms of our plans for next year to invest in Mexico.” 

Mexico government targeting the wrong side of legality 

Mexico continues to be Codere Online’s biggest market, with its €26.8 million in Q3 revenue ahead of the €22 million achieved in its home market of Spain. 

Its monthly active players in Mexico soared by 39% to approximately 88,300, compared to 50,200 in Spain. 

Elsewhere, Codere Online is working with the Mexican government to highlight the prevalence of the black market in the country.  

Iglesias said the government should be looking to bring illegal operators onshore as a source of additional revenue. 

“Directionally, obviously, a tax increase is not good,” Iglesias explained. “We always are looking for governments to look to increase compliance with anyone operating offshore or operating in the grey or black markets. That’s the first place we prefer for governments to look for additional revenues.  

“We are partnered with the Mexican government. We are partnered with governments in every market in which we operate, and we are going to find a way through this and continue to be confident that the Mexican market is going to be a winner for us over the short, medium and long term.” 

Tax rise might ease competitive landscape in Mexico 

Iglesias did note the incoming tax increase could dampen the competitive landscape in Mexico, perhaps benefitting well-established players such as Codere Online. 

“While it is difficult to know how other operators will react, we are expecting that this tax increase may have a chilling effect on both new market entrants in regards to their appetite for further investment in the Mexican market and on those not yet operating in Mexico, but with near or medium-term plans or ambitions to enter the market,” Iglesias said.  

“It is difficult to quantify the impact of that chilling effect, [but] we would at least directionally expect a more benign competitive landscape in Mexico going forward, which we believe will be to our and other incumbents’ benefit.” 

Codere Online five-year strategy does not include Colombia 

In the company’s Q1 results, Codere Online said it was pulling back in Colombia because of the 19% temporary VAT. Sher reiterated this strategic change on the business’ post-Q2 earnings call. 

The VAT is set to come to an end from the start of 2026, but the company is working under the assumption it will either be renewed or made permanent. 

Speaking on the Monday call, Codere Online executive vice-chairman Moshe Edree said the operator’s short to mid-term strategy “does not include Colombia”.  

“We just monetise it as it is. So we’re not going to invest any further unless the tax will change,” he said.  

Iglesias added more colour: “We continue operating under the assumption that this will continue, that this will get legislated in a more permanent way.  

“That said, that may not necessarily be the case. If it’s not the case, then we will rethink what it is we want to do. Obviously, that’s a game changer and fixes the primary problem in Colombia, which is the unit economics are not good in the context of a tax on customer deposits. It is a situation we’re monitoring. 

“As things stand today, it’s a tough market for us to find a way forward that makes sense for us.” 

Rival supplier Playtech was, in October, unmasked in US court filings as the client behind a covert campaign that had employed the Israeli intelligence firm Black Cube to produce and circulate a defamatory report accusing Evolution of trading within black markets.

The dispute has all the ingredients of a boardroom thriller: disguises, fake identities, hidden cameras and dossiers couriered to regulators. Yet beneath the surface lies a more immediate concern for investors: what do the claims and some of the report’s findings mean for Evolution’s valuation, reputation and ability to sustain shareholder confidence? 

Immediate impact

The case traces back to December 2020, when Playtech contracted Black Cube to craft a report designed to damage Evolution’s standing in the US and European markets. Black Cube’s findings came to a close in November 2021 in a complaint filed with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, which alleged that Evolution’s games had been deliberately supplied in jurisdictions under US sanctions, such as Syria and Iran.  

However, according to court filings, Black Cube’s methods were elaborate and ethically dubious as agents posed under false pretences, secretly recorded current and former employees of Evolution and cherry-picked evidence. Depositions revealed that Black Cube’s co-founder, Avi Yanus, was promised a six-figure success fee for achieving specific outcomes.

Evolution’s statement claimed that the New Jersey Superior Court deemed Black Cube’s report “objectively false”, however the court’s February 2025 ruling said, “this court is not making any dispositive finding with regard to the merits of Plaintiffs’ case.” It therefore deemed the case to still be in its infancy. 

Evolution’s public release, which broke the news on 21 October, portrayed Playtech in a particularly nefarious light. The release described Playtech’s actions as a “smear campaign” and “a defamatory scheme”. The statement also described the Playtech-commissioned report as “highly inflammatory”, intended to “substantially harm” Evolution. The immediate market impact was felt by Playtech as its share price plummeted between 25% and 38%, reflecting investor concern over its role in commissioning the investigation.

The gaming giant’s share price bounced back in the couple of days following Playtech’s public response to Evolution, also released on 21 October.

Short-term PR bruise or long-term credibility at risk?

Evolution’s share price, by contrast, held steady or even rose slightly upon the release of its statement, signalling the market’s initial support for the Swedish company.

Ben Robinson, managing partner at Corfai Capital, interprets the market response as a reflection of the companies’ different roles, as portrayed in the court filings. He also highlights Evolution’s image within the media coverage, compared to Playtech.  

“The market punished Playtech, while Evolution held steady or rose slightly. The street clearly saw Evolution as the target, not the culprit,” he notes. “The 2021 dossier probes closed in February 2024 with no action, blunting the claims and capping further downside unless new facts emerge. Headlines could still sting, but this looks priced in, a short-term PR bruise rather than a lasting rerating.” 

Reputational risk

Despite the apparent resilience of Evolution’s share price, the litigation and public disclosure of internal filings carry reputational risks. Robinson cautions that even if Evolution wins the final dispute, filings and findings could stir old concerns over grey market exposure. Evolution has said its long-standing complaint against Black Cube will be updated to include Playtech.

An affidavit made by Yanus, and shared during court proceedings, suggested Evolution was supplying games in Iran, Sudan and Syria – countries designated as state sponsors of terrorism. Evolution, in its most recent case filing disputing claims made by Black Cube, has insisted these were “material false statements”.

But court documents relating to Evolution’s case include comments that suggest Evolution does maintain some presence in black markets. The document cites a recording made by Black Cube of a conversation with Kfir Kugler, the founder and CEO of developer Ezugi, a live casino developer Evolution acquired in 2018. It quotes Kugler as saying: “[W]hat we do is that we supply products. This is, you know, unofficial. So, we do have games for Kurdistan and Iraq.”

Separately, Evolution remains embroiled in a UK Gambling Commission investigation for providing its games to black market operators. An update on this is expected before the end of the year. “I’d expect pointed questions from investors, but no break in confidence. The risk now sits in perception, not fundamentals,” Robinson says of the review.

Asia cyber attacks and RNG performance impacts Evolution valuation

Evolution claims the 2021 report has caused “multi‑billion‑dollar damage” to its business and share value. Reports have previously said that when the report first came to light, Evolution’s share price “plummeted by more than 30% over the week, wiping approximately $10 billion off its market capitalisation”.  Current data show Evolution’s market cap at around €11.6 billion (at the end of October 2025), which is a drop from about €26.9 billion in December 2021.

But beyond its long-claimed links to grey or black markets the supplier has faced increased valuation damage from continued cyber attacks across Asia and internal restructuring following a number of acquisitions. Its RNG business has been on a slow recovery journey for the last few quarters.

As the dispute progresses, the case could continue to impact share prices for both Evolution and Playtech, Robinson says. “From a share value perspective, both sides appear to have little to gain from letting this escalate.”

With regards to access to operators in unregulated jurisdictions, the complex web of aggregator networks and VPN usage makes complete prevention virtually impossible. 

“Content from major suppliers, including both Evolution and Playtech, often appears through third-party aggregators. That doesn’t prove direct involvement; it reflects the increasingly fragmented nature of distribution,” he adds.

Evolution must abide by Market Abuse Regulation

An equity analyst speaking to iGB under condition of anonymity, believes both Playtech and Evolution are aware their products seep into unregulated territories, and they should also be aware how bringing attention to this will eventually damage them both.

“It’s common knowledge that content leaks into grey or even black markets through intermediaries or cloned instances. Everyone in the sector understands this, and both sides must recognise that escalation could harm them equally,” they add.

Evolution, listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange, faces particular scrutiny under the EU Market Abuse Regulation (MAR). When court proceedings reveal information that could affect a company’s valuation, that data may qualify as inside information – requiring prompt public disclosure. Failure to do so can invite regulatory investigation or sanctions. 

A Nasdaq spokesperson declined to comment on the specific case but told iGB: “It is the company’s responsibility to assess whether information constitutes inside information and to indicate this in the press release with reference to MAR.

“We continuously review that issuers comply with the Exchange’s rules and may initiate an investigation against an issuer if there are suspicions of rule violations.” 

Evolution’s balance sheet looks strong 

The saga underscores the growing struggles of corporate rivalry in the online gambling industry. Black Cube, known for its work in geopolitical and corporate espionage, was contracted to explore potential misconduct against a competitor.

Yet the path to accountability has been slow, with Black Cube repeatedly resisting court orders and Playtech striving to remain anonymous for some time. The litigation comes at a moment when the regulatory environment for B2B gaming suppliers is tightening, particularly in Europe.

Richard Williams, a lawyer at Keystone Law, notes that the issues raised in Evolution’s case are far from isolated. “The CEO of the Gambling Commission [Andrew Rhodes] said at his briefing in London on 7 November, that there will be a lot more to come in relation to games suppliers providing games to black market operators serving the UK,” he notes.

“I do not therefore think that Evolution is a special case. We are likely to see a lot more enforcement activity against licensed B2B software developers over the course of the next 12 months.” 

Broader implications on competitive ethics?

Investors will be watching not only the legal outcomes but also the broader implications for governance, compliance and competition ethics. Robinson suggests that the case may reshape investor thinking around reputation and ethics within the sector. “The case paints Playtech as the instigator and that plays in Evolution’s favour.

“The market split confirms it, positioning Evolution as the one smeared, not at fault. Regulators are likely to stay on the sidelines, but sentiment clearly leans against Playtech. In the B2B igaming space, investors may start scoring ethics and rivalry conduct alongside compliance, raising scrutiny on intel tactics.” 

Financially, the litigation and reputational fallout have not materially destabilised Evolution, which has historically had a strong balance sheet and substantial liquidity. “I’d expect a small risk premium to linger until the case closes, probably into 2026. Evolution’s balance sheet looks strong enough to support ongoing dividends and buybacks, and legal costs appear contained. Unless those costs escalate meaningfully, there’s no clear reason for capital policy to change,” Robinson observes. 

Nonetheless, the firm’s leadership is conscious of the need to maintain investor trust and demonstrate transparency. Adrian Westman, Evolution’s head of communications, underscores the company’s ongoing commitment to compliance and responsibility.

“Compliance is everyone’s responsibility and Evolution takes it with the utmost seriousness. Evolution invests significantly in systems and technology and uses all tools at our disposal to ensure compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and industry standards,” he tells iGB.

Playtech has also indicated it is committed to overall sector compliance and, in its 21 October statement, said it was “confident that these proceedings will confirm the credibility and legitimacy of the investigation and the importance of the issues it seeks to address”.

“Playtech welcomes court examination of the report and its findings,” it added.

More than a legal scuffle

The case illustrates the tangible costs of reputational warfare. The initial report did not only provoke regulatory scrutiny but resulted in significant financial damage to Evolution. Despite the eventual vindication, being targeted by a well-known competitor using private investigators can quietly hurt the company’s reputation and make investors less confident. 

Robinson reflects: “This dispute highlights ‘reputational warfare’ as a tangible cost of doing business. It echoes Evolution’s 2022 short-seller hit and other recent intelligence skirmishes across the sector. Boards will now tighten oversight of vendor conduct and due diligence, while ESG investors scrutinise governance around reputation management.” 

In January 2022 the company was hit by a short report that claimed the company’s unregulated revenue should have been valued differently from its regulated revenue.

Playtech, meanwhile, is left to contend with the fallout from being publicly identified as the orchestrator of the campaign against Evolution. The £1.8 million paid to Black Cube, while significant, pales in comparison to the reputational and financial costs of a collapsed share price and regulatory attention. For a publicly traded company, a shock of this scale can translate into lasting scrutiny from investors, regulators and analysts, even after the immediate financial penalties are absorbed. 

The Evolution saga is therefore more than a legal scuffle: it is a reminder that in the digital, highly regulated world of online gaming, the boundaries between competition and deception can blur, and the consequences are measured not only in pounds or euros, but in trust and market confidence. 

Evolution continuously denies black market links

As the case progresses through 2026, it will continue to command attention from investors, competitors and regulators alike. However, Evolution is confident in its legal footing. Westman insists the company’s focus is on accountability rather than damage control. “Evolution’s current defamation litigation is the company’s effort to hold Playtech and Black Cube accountable for its wrongdoing and protect shareholder value,” he said. 

But Playtech is also confident of its position. In its public statement it said its subsidiary approached Black Cube as an independent investigator to look into “credible and repeated concerns” from operators, suppliers and regulators about Evolution’s activities in prohibited and sanctioned markets. 

When asked by iGB, Westman insists the findings in the Playtech-commissioned report were false. Indeed, Evolution has for several years firmly denied it has had any involvement in illegal activities.

The next legal steps for Evolution will be to prepare its defamation case against Playtech and Black Cube case for trial, which is expected to run through 2026. “We are confident that the law and facts are on our side and look forward to presenting our case,” Westman adds. 

Revenue for the three months to the end of September was marginally higher than SEK6.68 billion in Q3 2024. However, the monthly total fell 4.4% short of the SEK7.02 billion posted in Q2 of this year.

Figures from regulator Spelinspektionen showed commercial online gambling remained the primary source of gambling revenue by some margin. Total revenue from the sector, which includes online casino, topped SEK4.51 billion in Q3, up 3.5% year-on-year.

This segment also covers online sports betting, with the increase coming despite a tough comparable period last year. Q3 of 2024 included the latter stages of football’s Euro 2024 tournament, as well as the 2024 summer Olympic Games.

Mixed news from the land-based sector in Sweden

Turning to land-based gambling, revenue from the state lottery and physical slot machines was 7.2% lower year-on-year at SEK1.26 billion.

Revenue from lotteries classified as “gaming for public benefit” edged up 0.5% to SEK822 million. Meanwhile, bingo games under the public benefit umbrella generated SEK48 million, which was level year-on-year.

Elsewhere, land-based commercial gaming, including restaurant casinos, drew SEK67 million in revenue, a rise of 3.1%.

Finally, Q3 was the first quarter in which the former Casino Cosmopol land-based operations did not generate any gambling revenue. Svenska Spel closed its final physical casino in April, just weeks after Sweden’s government voted to abolish land-based casinos. 

Land-based casinos will officially be banned in Sweden from 1 January 2026.

Extended credit gambling ban edges closer in Sweden

Also soon to be banned in Sweden will be gambling with credit. The Swedish Gambling Act already prevents players from using credit to gamble with licensed operators. However, a change in regulation will take this further.

From 1 April 2026, both licensees and gambling agents will be banned from processing transactions that involve any form of credit. This will extend to credit agreements with other actors, such as loan agreements and bank overdrafts, where they may be misappropriated for the purpose of gambling.

Licensees and agents must also take measures to counteract gambling with credit. This could include blocking credit card payments and not promoting third-party lenders to customers.

However, the government said Spelinspektionen could make certain exceptions to the ban. This may cover licensed operators running gambling for public benefit, like charity lotteries.

The deal represents a significant shift for locals-focused Golden and allows VICI to penetrate further into the Las Vegas locals market, which has seen great success since the start of 2024. Under the terms of the deal, publicly traded Golden will now be taken private by chairman and CEO Blake Sartini.

Golden shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.9 shares of VICI stock and a cash distribution of $2.75 per share held at closing from Sartini. The overall consideration of $30 per share represents a 40% premium to its 5 November closing price, the day before the the deal was announced.

The company will continue its quarterly $0.25 per share dividends through closing, which is set for mid-2026. VICI agreed to pay up to $426 million of the operator’s current debt. Notably, the deal includes a “go-shop” clause that allows Golden to solicit “alternative acquisition proposals from third parties” through 5 December, the company said.

“We are pleased to combine our high-quality Nevada casino real estate with one of the most attractive experiential real estate platforms in the country and partner together to unlock value in our company and explore future opportunities,” Sartini said in a staetment.

VICI President John Payne added that his firm has “sought exposure to the attractive Las Vegas Locals gaming market since our inception”. He described the market as having “sticky, durable customer bases”.

Downtown and locals market increasingly attractive

The health and long-term prospects of Las Vegas’ economy have generated much debate in 2025. After multiple record years post-Covid, the city is feeling the effects of declining visitation and volatile gaming revenue. From a business perspective, perhaps the most notable trend to arise from these conditions has been a resurgence of the downtown and locals markets as consumers seek more value-oriented options.

According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, downtown Las Vegas finished +2% year-over-year in revenue for fiscal year 2025, and the locals market was +5%. The Strip, by contrast, was -3%. Even when the Strip had its best year ever in FY24, downtown was still +2% and the locals market was +7%. Locals revenue in particular is nearing $2 billion per year, easily the second-biggest total in Nevada behind the Strip.

REITs like VICI and Gaming and Leisure Properties have amassed a large portion of Las Vegas’ casino assets through sale-leaseback deals in recent years. But as such assets become increasingly scarce, firms have had to devise new growth avenues and funding mechanisms. VICI’s portfolio features more than 50 casinos in 15 states, but in Vegas it had notably lacked a downtown or locals property.

“This transaction diversifies VICI’s real estate ownership in Nevada, an attractive gaming jurisdiction due to its stable regulatory environment and low tax rate,” the company said in a release. “The transaction also provides VICI with exposure to the Las Vegas locals market, which was the second largest gaming market in the US in 2024 by gross gaming revenue. The locals market has long been targeted by VICI due to its key characteristics of consistent and stable growth, strong demographic and demand tailwinds driven by population trends, and high barriers to entry.”

Will private ownership help Golden Entertainment?

VICI acquired the land assets for the following properties from the following markets:

• The STRAT Hotel, Casino & Tower, north Las Vegas Strip
• Arizona Charlie’s Decatur, locals market
• Arizona Charlie’s Boulder, locals market
• Aquarius Casino Resort, Laughlin
• Edgewater Casino Resort, Laughlin
• Pahrump Nugget Hotel & Casino, Pahrump
• Lakeside RV Park & Casino, Pahrump

In total, the properties include 6,000 hotel rooms, 4,306 slots and 78 tables. VICI is charging Sartini an overall master lease of $87 million per year, with a 30-year term and four five-year renewal options. The rent will increase by an annual rate of 2% starting in year three.

The STRAT is the highest-profile asset among them, though it has had something of a snake-bitten history. Since opening in 1996, the property’s famous tower has become a staple of the Las Vegas skyline. The 1,149-foot tower is the tallest free-standing observation tower in the US and the tallest structure in Nevada. But its location on the far north end of the Strip has always been its biggest hurdle, as it is essentially between the Strip and downtown.

Consultant and former regulator Richard Schuetz was brought in as president of the STRAT in its first year to help stabilise operations after a rocky opening. He told iGB that the tower is an “unbelievable” asset and tourist attraction, but that appeal might have a shorter lifespan than a typical resort that can remodel and reinvent itself more over time. Further, its location apart from the rest of the Strip means it “just doesn’t get that walking traffic” that feeds other properties.

“It’s kind of in no-man’s land,” Schuetz said.

Sartini will now try to maximise the properties’ value under private ownership. Golden’s casino-resort segment saw revenue and EBITDA declines in Q3 and its locals casino segment was flat.

Most locals operators have steered clear of REITs

By diving into the sale-leaseback trend, Golden Entertainment is breaking from its contemporaries. The other two main locals operators in the region, Red Rock Resorts and Boyd Gaming, have so far abstained from selling their real estate. Both companies have enjoyed massive success in the last two years with a notable lack of rent escalators.

Sale-leaseback transactions give operators a huge cash infusion that helps in the short to medium term, especially when multiple projects are in need of financing. But once that money is spent, the future expenses only go up. And most locals operators are inherently conservative, meaning their finances are not as stretched as might be the case for international firms.

“With the strength of our balance sheet, the strength of our cash flows and our ability to access other forms of financing, we just don’t have a need [for REITs],” Boyd CEO Keith Smith told the Nevada Independent in 2023.

Red Rock is even more opposed to REITs, as the company has long deployed the strategy of acquiring and holding real estate for future projects. According to its Q3 investor presentation, the company holds 461 acres of undeveloped land in Nevada worth an estimated $950 million.

Sartini and Red Rock are closely connected – the Golden CEO is the brother-in-law of Red Rock bosses Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta. Earlier this year, there was some intrigue about the fact that Red Rock launched a new tavern brand, called Seventy Six, which now directly competes with Golden’s tavern business.

When asked on an earnings call about the added layer of competition, Sartini said Golden’s “size and our brand is a significant competitive advantage”.

Addressing analysts on a third-quarter earnings call, Flutter CEO Peter Jackson noted that the company will launch a prediction market, FanDuel Predicts, at some point next month. Just about five minutes before the call began, Nevada regulators issued a statement that the company had agreed to surrender its gaming licence due to the leap into prediction markets.

FanDuel has only one retail sportsbook in Nevada, a small book in partnership with Boyd Gaming at the Fremont Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. The company does not have any online sportsbook offerings in the state.  

As with DraftKings, FanDuel intends to accept trading on sports event contracts in states that have yet to legalise sports wagering. That covers just 11 states, but they represent a large portion of the US population.

While Jackson acknowledged that Nevada regulators needed to “protect their interests”, he emphasised that FanDuel must also do so. He said that FanDuel Predicts will allow the company to go after “half the market”, which has previously been untapped. Without mentioning the names of any states, Jackson hinted that FanDuel will target California and Texas as primary markets for event contracts on sports.

Quarterly earnings

For the three-month period that ended 30 September, Flutter generated revenue of $3.79 billion, a decline of 5% from the year-ago quarter. Flutter failed to meet analysts’ estimates of $3.9 billion. The company blamed a series of customer-friendly sportsbook outcomes at the start of the NFL season for the decline in revenue.

However, Flutter still reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.64, far above per share estimates of $0.79. In the US, a metric for FanDuel’s volume of sportsbook customers per month rose by 5% on average for the quarter.

Despite the revenue decline, FanDuel still maintained a 38% share of the US sportsbook market by gross gaming revenue and remains the top company in the US by market share, according to Flutter. In terms of net gaming revenue, FanDuel’s share ticked slightly higher at 41%.

By 2030, Flutter projects that the total addressable market for US gambling will balloon to $63 billion. An analyst from Third Bridge finds the projection credible, supported by new state openings and further expansion throughout the market.

Elevated spending abroad

With the launch of FanDuel Predicts, Flutter anticipates an EBITDA cost of $40 million to $50 million for the fourth quarter, said Flutter Chief Financial Officer Rob Coldrake. Flutter is also allocating about $200 million to $300 million in investments into the prediction market for full-year 2026.

In August, Flutter bought back a 5% stake in FanDuel from Boyd Entertainment for $1.8 billion. Outside of the US, the company has also invested heavily in Brazil and Italy in recent months, Citizens JMP analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a research note. The spending spree has dampened available resources, with free cash flow down 43% year-to-date, according to Bender. In response, Citizens has lowered its 2026 EBITDA model for Flutter by 7%.

Jackson also expressed disappointment with the enactment of the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act in India. The act led to the shutdown of real-money operations at Junglee, an Indian subsidiary. Flutter acquired Junglee in 2021 for approximately $200 million.

FanDuel Predicts launch

During an earnings call on 7 November, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins noted that he sees prediction markets as a significant incremental opportunity for the company. While DraftKings has not set an exact launch date, Robins indicated that it will occur in the coming months.

Flutter predated DraftKings’ entry into prediction markets with the announcement of a partnership with the CME Group over the summer. However, at the time, Flutter did not indicate if it planned to offer event contracts on sports.

Under the terms of the deal, the CME Group will receive 50% of gross revenue from FanDuel Predicts, Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas wrote in a research note. FanDuel will be responsible for 100% of costs to support the FanDuel Predicts app while CME will be responsible for all exchange-related costs, according to Jonas.

Over the last year, prediction markets have generated considerable buzz throughout the gambling industry amid concerns that sports event contracts could threaten the commercial interests of legal sportsbooks. Bender, the analyst from Citizens JMP, wrote Wednesday that he views prediction markets as a meaningful earnings driver for Flutter in 2027.

Lower guidance

Jackson indicated that Flutter will not have a parlay offering for FanDuel Predicts upon the initial launch. Instead, he anticipates that a pre-packaged offering will be available by early 2026. With the added investment in FanDuel Predicts, Flutter now expects full-year 2025 EBITDA in the range of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion.

Flutter also lowered its full-year revenue in part due to the unfavourable sports outcomes. The company now expects full-year 2025 revenue to fall within the range of $16.4 billion to $17.3 billion.

In pre-market trading on Thursday, Flutter fell 3.4% to $226 per share. Since clearing $300 a share in July, Flutter has dropped by nearly 25%.

Data from the Gambling Commission on Wednesday reported GGY was up 8% from £1.32 billion in Q3 2024 but 5% behind £1.49 billion in Q2 of this year.

Total bets and spins for the quarter increased 3% year-on-year to 26.1 billion. However, the commission noted a 7% decline in the average monthly active accounts for the three-month period.

Online slots remain king although monthly actives drop

Breaking down the market, online slots remained the main source of GGY by some distance in Q3. Total GGY for the segment was £747 million, marginally ahead of the existing record – £745 million – in Q2 and 9% higher than last year.

Total spins were up 4% year-on-year, and on par with Q2’s record, at 24.4 billion. However, average monthly active accounts fell 0.4% from last year to 4.4 million per month.

Average session times were slightly shorter than the previous year at 16 minutes. The number of slot sessions over an hour dropped 15% to 8.6 million, although total sessions were 13% higher at 188.8 million for Q2.

Growth within the sector came despite the introduction of new measures for online slots in Britain. Refreshed online slot stake limits came in at the start of Q2, with players aged 25 or over now only able to wager a maximum of £5 per spin. Players below the age of 25 face a lower limit of £2 per spin.

Improvement in real event betting GGY

Elsewhere, the real event betting segment recovered from a year-on-year decline during Q2 to report growth. GGY for this sector increased 12% to £508 million, although this was 11% less than Q2.

The total number of real event bets was down 3% from last year, while the average monthly active accounts dropped 14%.

Meanwhile, other online gaming GGY, including table games, dipped 4% from Q2 of 2024 to £141 million. Internet poker GGY fell 15% to £11 million, while virtual betting GGY was down 17% to £8 million.

A further £4 million of GGY came from esports betting, a drop of 5%, although GGY from other activities climbed 35% to £2 million.

Betting shop GGY drops 5% in Q3

Turning to the land-based sector, betting premises GGY for the quarter was 5% lower at £508 million. Bets and spins in this segment were also down 2% year-on-year to 3.1 billion.

Machines again generated the most GGY at £272 million, although this was 3% less than the previous year. Over-the-counter GGY dropped 10% to £137 million, but self-service betting terminal GGY climbed 14% to £115 million.

Focusing on machines, sessions total dipped 1% to 22 million but the number of sessions that lasted more than an hour increased 4% to 575,063.

The e-games sector rose 17%, generating PHP41.95 billion versus PHP35.71 billion in the third quarter of 2024. However, that growth was mostly attributable to volume in July, prior to the mandatory delinking of e-wallets from licensed iGaming platforms.

Revenue from land-based casinos in the Philippines dropped 10.2% to PHP45.56 billion. Pagcor-branded casinos saw an 11.6% decline to PHP3.22 billion. Bingo revenue was down 16.2% to PHP3.79 billion.

In total, the take from licensed casinos accounted for 48.2% of revenue. E-games, consisting of e-bingo, e-casino, sports betting and online poker, contributed 44.4%.

First-half surge sparked addiction concerns

In the first half of 2025, the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp (Pagcor) posted GGR of PHP214.75 billion, up 26% over last year. Although land-based casinos were down almost 6% from 2024, e-games rose 82.67% year-on-year.

That surge sparked concerns among anti-gaming activists including the clergy and some Philippine legislators. They criticised the industry for stoking addictive behaviour, especially among the young and the poor. Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri introduced Senate Bill 142, the Anti-Online Gambling Act, which would shut down all online gambling websites and apps and bar e-wallets and payment service providers from processing e-games transactions.

“The taxes earned are not worth the social cost,” Zubiri said.

Erwin Tulfo of the Senate Committee on Games and Amusement agreed, saying, “As long as online gambling exists, we are breeding the next generation of addicts, debtors and broken families. No amount of tax revenue can justify this human cost.”

Pagcor chief Alejandro Tengco called for stricter regulation, rather than a total ban. “As the country’s gaming regulator, our foremost responsibility is to ensure that growth comes with accountability,” he said. “We are committed to always strike a balance between enabling industry expansion and ensuring it aligns with responsible gaming standards.”

E-wallets blocked for gambling

In August, the Philippines Central Bank ordered e-wallets like GCash and Maya to immediately remove in-app links that direct users to gambling sites. That order suppressed electronic games’ performance through September.

“The delinking … resulted in a short-term decline in activity toward the latter part of the quarter,” Tengco acknowledged. “However, these measures are vital to protect players and ensure secure, transparent transactions. The figures reflect an industry that is adjusting to necessary safeguards.”

Tulfo applauded e-wallet firms for complying with the new restriction. “This is a sign that the business sector is willing to work with the government in addressing the problem of online gambling addiction.” But he warned that some online gambling operators would shift to other mobile apps like Viber, Telegram and Lazada.

Tengco advised Filipinos to avoid unauthorised platforms. “They do not follow responsible gaming standards, do not pay taxes and put players at risk of data theft and fraud,” he said.

The company indicated in an SEC 10-Q filing on Friday that Matt Kalish will depart from his role effective 31 March 2026. Kalish will remain as a director on the DraftKings board after the transition date. Kalish and DraftKings mutually agreed on the transition earlier this month, according to the filing, and financial terms of his agreement were referenced but not disclosed.

DraftKings prepares to enter 2026 in something of a transition phase. Kalish’s departure comes a few months after DraftKings announced a $10 million settlement around its Reignmakers NFT product. The company also expects the launch of a new prediction market offering following the acquisition of Railbird and it has several new media partnerships

Perhaps most notably, ahead of its third-quarter earnings release this week, DraftKings signed a multi-year partnership with ESPN in a deal that designates the company as the official sportsbook and odds provider of the network.

Robins bullish on DraftKings future

Despite a partnership that links two of the largest sports media and entertainment companies across the nation, the ESPN deal took a back seat to prediction markets on Friday’s earnings call.

Wall Street analysts spent the majority of the call discussing the offering, in light of DraftKings’ acquisition of Railbird Technologies last month. The purchase of Railbird Exchange, a federally licensed exchange designated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, enables DraftKings to make its highly anticipated entry into prediction markets.

On Friday’s call, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins noted that he sees the offering as a significant incremental opportunity for the company. In spite of a down quarter due to a series of unfavourable sports outcomes, Robins told analysts that he has never been more bullish about the future of the company.

“That may sound surprising given we are revising our fiscal year 2025 guidance ranges today. However, underlying growth in our business is accelerating,” Robins said. “Overall, I believe that our long-term financial potential has never been brighter.”

Launch of DraftKings Predict upcoming

Robins said that the company will launch DraftKings Predict in the coming months, but he did not specify an exact date.

Over the last 10 months, prediction markets have created significant buzz as traditional sportsbooks grapple with a new competitor. The markets offer sports event contracts that mirror financial derivatives such as oil and grain futures. Kalshi, a leading prediction market, has faced a wave of litigation across numerous jurisdictions, which claim that the site is violating various state laws by offering an illegal product.

Robins told analysts that DraftKings has had numerous conversations with state regulators as trends on prediction markets evolve. He stressed that the company treats its relationships with those regulators with the utmost respect. As such, DraftKings only plans to offer sports event contracts in states without legal sports betting.

DraftKings disclosed in the 10-Q filing that it paid $48.6 million for the Railbird acquisition, consisting of approximately $19.9 million in cash and 0.9 million shares of the Company’s Class A common stock valued at $28.7 million. The acquisition contains additional considerations of up to $200 million, according to the filing.

Other highlights from DraftKings Q3 earnings

• DraftKings’ metric known as “monthly unique payers” (MUPs) came in at 3.6 million average customers in the third quarter, remaining unchanged from the same period in 2024. When excluding Jackpocket, the metric on monthly unique players increased by 6% year-over-year to 3.1 million.
• Another metric with the abbreviation “ARPMUPS” came in at $106, representing a slight increase from the same period in 2024. The abbreviation stands for “average revenue per monthly unique player”. DraftKings reported average revenue of $103 per monthly unique player in last year’s third quarter.
• DraftKings’ NBA handle is up 19% season-to-date, while its season-to-date handle for NFL wagering has increased by 13%. Overall, DraftKings’ sportsbook handle for October jumped 17%. For the NFL season-to-date, DraftKings’ parlay mix is up 800 basis points.
• DraftKings’ announcement of the ESPN deal coincided with news that it would mutually terminate a multi-year partnership with Penn Entertainment. DraftKings will begin its marketing partnership with ESPN effective 1 December. “Our betting approach has focused on offering an integrated experience within our products,” ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro said. “Working with DraftKings will allow us to build on that foundation.”
• DraftKings’ board authorised an increase in the company’s repurchase programme from $1 billion to $2 billion. Since the inception of the programme, DraftKings has bought back 9.3 million shares, the company announced.

DKNG Q3 earnings miss

In a letter to shareholders, Robins wrote that a series of “customer friendly” outcomes negatively impacted company revenues by more than $300 million in the most recent quarter. DraftKings indicated that a handful of NFL outcomes had a “pronounced effect” on its revenue. Throughout the industry, sportsbooks have felt a pinch as favourites opened the season covering at a high rate.

While DraftKings increased revenue by 4.4% to $1.14 billion, the company still missed analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.21 billion on the quarter. DraftKings also reported adjusted EBITDA of -$126.5 million, below expectations of -$68.8 million. DraftKings’ adjusted earnings per share of -$0.26 fell in line with estimates.

As a result, DraftKings lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance at the midpoint by nearly 5% to $6 billion. DraftKings’ full-year EBITDA guidance of $500 million at the midpoint falls below analysts’ estimates of $746.3 million. The guidance includes the launch of DraftKings Predict, Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas wrote in a research note. The impending launch was not factored into the guidance in the second quarter, he noted.

More than $1B in media obligations

Under the marketing partnership with ESPN, DraftKings will integrate its product across numerous channels, including its online sportsbook, fantasy and DraftKings Pick6 products. An integration through ESPN’s mobile app will link to DraftKings Sportsbook.

According to the filing, DraftKings has about $1.3 billion of expected contractual obligations over the next five years with three media counterparties. Terms of the ESPN partnership were not disclosed. DraftKings also entered into a multi-year advertising partnership with NBCUniversal in September.

As of noon ET on Friday, DraftKings traded around $28 a share, up fractionally on the session. DraftKings is down approximately 27% over the last 12 months.

Fileding questions from analysts during the operator’s Q3 earnings call on Thursday, Riahi said the group had no plans to dispose of its content division as there were still opportunities for growth within the sector.

“We are very happy with our development in sports betting and gaming,” he said on the call. “The Tipico acquisition was a very major event for us and we stick to our strategy here for growth in gaming.

“However, we also believe that we have very positive opportunities on the content side. So no, we don’t have any plans to sell this division.”

Banijay’s Entertainment content business exists outside the gaming industry, as a developer and producer of global media, including television and film. Within the business sits a creative marketing agency called Banijay Media Germany and a branded content arm called Banijay Branded Entertainment.

In October the group announced it would acquire a majority stake in German operator Tipico in an agreement including Tipico’s Admiral business, acquired from Novomatic in January. Banijay will take a 65% stake in Tipico in a deal that will complete in mid-2026.

After completion, Banijay will merge Tipico with its Betclic brand. Betclic has been part of Banijay for several years. In May 2022, Betclic merged with Banijay to create a new listed entity, FL Entertainment. Last May, the company rebranded to Banijay Group, with the Banijay Gaming sub-division regrouping online sports betting and gaming activities.

9M revenue hits €3.22 million at Banijay

Switching attention to Banijay’s financial performance in the nine months to 30 September and the results read positively for the group. Revenue for the period reached €3.22 billion, an increase of 3.2% from the previous year.

Content- and production-focused Banijay Entertainment and Banijay Live drew the largest portion of revenue at €2.09 billion, an increase of 0.4%. However, it was gaming where the group saw the most growth.

Banijay Gaming revenue increased 8.7% to €1.13 billion, with increases across all areas of this business. The number of unique active players within this segment also jumped 23% year-on-year.

Sportsbook drew the most gaming revenue at €857 million, up 5.3% year-on-year. The group said this was despite a tough comparable period in 2024, which included the latter stages of Euro 2024, and unfavourable sports in September.

Online casino delivered double-digit growth of 16.4%, with revenue reaching €179.1 million for the period. Banijay put this down to continued momentum in Portugal and launching in Ivory Coast. It also noted the impact of cross-selling from the sportsbook and a strengthened content offering.

As for other gaming-related revenue, poker revenue increased 32.7%, more than any other segment in the business, to €76.2 million. The remaining €17.8 million was drawn from turf activities, up 17.8%.

Adjusted net profit rises to €271.2 million

In terms of group spending, external and personnel expenses were 2.2% higher for the nine-month period. However, such was the impact of revenue growth that adjusted EBITDA was up 9.3% to €597.1 million.

Operating profit hiked 38.6% to €381.1 million while pre-tax profit jumped 76.4% to €189 million, despite higher finance-related costs. Banijay paid €60.1 million in income tax, with this leaving a net profit of €128.9 million, up 132.2%.

However, certain other factors were also accounted for. This included taking off €17.4 million in restructuring costs and other on-recurring items, €87.8 million in long-term incentive plan and employment related earn-out and option expenses, as well as €37.0 million in other costs. Banijay was left with an adjusted net income of €271.2 million some 9.3% above last year.

“Banijay delivered solid growth and strong performance during the first nine months of 2025 across all activities, underscoring the strength of our diversified model,” Riahi said of the results,

ESPN and Penn mutually agreed to the early termination of their partnership, which initially was a 10-year deal set to go through 2033, according to Penn’s third quarter report on Thursday. Penn paid $150 million per year for ESPN’s media, marketing and the exclusive right to ESPN Bet. The deal gave either company the option to end the partnership after the third year if market share performances were not met. The companies had aimed to secure 10%-20% market share after three years.

“When we first announced our partnership with ESPN, both sides made it clear that we expected to compete for a podium position in the space,” Penn President and CEO Jay Snowden said in a statement. “Although we made significant progress in improving our product offering and building a cohesive ecosystem with ESPN, we have mutually and amicably agreed to wind down our collaboration. We plan to realign our digital focus on our growing iCasino business, while continuing to capitalise on our omnichannel advantage as the nation’s leading regional retail casino operator.”

Penn readies theScore Bet for US relaunch

In ESPN Bet’s place, Penn will relaunch its theScore Bet product in the United States, with a goal of having it ready by 1 December to coincide with the start of Missouri sports betting. The ESPN Bet app will be automatically updated to theScore Bet when opened on the date of transition, according to Snowden.

Snowden said theScore Bet will “leverage connectivity with theScore media app”. He said the media app has four million monthly users in North America.

Penn purchased theScore in 2021 for $2 billion. The sportsbook then ended its US operations in 2022 to focus on the Canadian market.

In a previous sportsbook partnership that proved costly, Penn purchased Barstool Sports to use that company’s brand before giving it up – after similarly dismal performance – to restart in the new relationship with ESPN.

Penn shelves ESPN Bet

Penn will pay $38.1 million in the fourth quarter to Disney-owned ESPN, as well as an additional $5 million for marketing of theScore Bet and Hollywood Casino, according to the company’s 8-K filing.

The company must stop using the ESPN brand by 15 December. Disney, meanwhile, cannot license the ESPN Bet brand for at least 15 months after 1 December.

“Together, ESPN and Penn created a truly unique offering with unparalleled integrations across our various media assets,” ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro said. “ESPN drove over 2.9 million new users into the Penn ecosystem, with a strong uptick in first time bettors this fall. We appreciate the collaboration we had with Penn and are now pursuing other media and marketing opportunities within this space.”

Penn retains the 2.9 million users acquired during the ESPN relationship. ESPN retains vested warrants to purchase nearly eight million shares with a strike price of $28.95.

The release said the two companies will continue to work together in marketing and media. ESPN also announced a new marketing agreement with DraftKings on Thursday morning.

Penn refocuses on iCasino

Snowden said theScore will continue to act as a funnel to Penn’s Hollywood Casino iCasino app and the company will continue to focus on cross-selling its 33 million Penn Play programme members.

“Our OSB offerings will continue to provide top of funnel acquisition and cross-sell opportunities for our Hollywood-branded iCasino, which will remain integrated into our OSB product in states where legal, in addition to serving as a standalone iCasino app,” he said.

“We will operate with a more efficient cost structure, including replacing fixed media spending with performance based and regionally targeted marketing that complement our casino footprint. The realignment will free up resources to strategically invest in the North American markets with strong return potential which we expect will drive enhanced unit economics and profitability.”

In the third quarter, the land-based business was stable with $1.4 billion in revenue, according to the company’s earnings report.

Online struggled, with revenues of $297.7 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $76.6 million, which were below expectations. Snowden said the loss was because of “customer-friendly hold” and lower than anticipated online sports betting volumes.

Still, he highlighted the strength of Penn’s iCasino products, including a 40% year-over-year boost in quarterly revenue.

“The momentum in our iCasino business continues to benefit from growing average MAUs, which experienced the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases,” Snowden said.

Second failed media partnership

It is the second partnership Penn has ended based on poor performance in the sports betting space despite strong potential and goals.

In 2023, the company ended its partnership with Barstool Sports, which it initially purchased a share of in 2020. The company later acquired the remaining shares in 2022 for a total of $551 million.

Penn sold Barstool back to founder Dave Portnoy for $1 in 2023, following disappointing conversion of the media company’s audience into meaningful sports betting market share.

DraftKings snaps up ESPN partnership

Shortly after Penn and ESPN announced the ESPN Bet termination, ESPN and DraftKings announced a new partnership. The deal makes DraftKings the official sportsbook and odds provider of ESPN, beginning 1 December.

“Our betting approach has focused on offering an integrated experience within our products,” Pitaro said. “Working with DraftKings, a leader in the space, will allow us to build upon that foundation, continue to super-serve passionate sports fans and grow our ESPN direct-to-consumer business. We are excited about this new collaboration with DraftKings.”

DraftKings products will be integrated across the ESPN ecosystem, including access to sportsbook, daily fantasy and DraftKings Pick6 products. That includes a betting tab within the ESPN app.

“ESPN’s unmatched visibility across the world of sports make this collaboration a natural fit,” DraftKings co-founder and CEO Jason Robins said. “As an innovative leader in digital sports entertainment, DraftKings is uniquely positioned to integrate our technology and products with ESPN’s iconic brand and storytelling power. Together, we’re delivering a seamless, engaging, and responsible experience that elevates how fans connect with live sports.”

ESPN Bet will turn to a sports betting content brand with DraftKings Sportsbook integrations, including “ESPN Bet Live”, the network’s sports betting show.

After its authorisation to operate in the newly regulated Brazil online gambling market was formalised in July, Caixa set a November date for the launch of its betting offering.

However, the plans received political criticism, as Senator Damaras Alves launched a scathing attack on Caixa in October, describing its plans as a “contradictory, dangerous and profoundly irresponsible move”.

This attracted the ire of Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who then met with Caixa President Carlos Vieira to discuss the matter.

According to local news outlet O Globo, Caixa has now decided to delay its planned November launch, with no new date given.

Vieira previously estimated Caixa’s betting business would achieve revenues of between BRL2 billion (£371.8 million) and BRL2.5 billion in 2026, in its first full year of operation.

The licence covers three brands: BetCaixa, Megabet and Xbet Caixa. The company did not respond to iGB’s request for comment on the delay.

What does this mean for Caixa and the market?

Caixa’s plans to launch betting also raised questions around competition, with concerns over whether a state-owned entity should be involved in the market considering the potential for government influence.

As an example, Vieira had previously described a potential rise in the gambling tax rate from 12% to 18% as “reasonable”, going against the opinions of the majority of the regulated sector.

Fabio Ferreira Kujawski, partner at Brazilian law firm Matthos Filho, expects this comment stems from Caixa’s difficult position, in which it “cannot publicly oppose what the federal government is saying”.

Atucha has warned Caixa’s delayed launch highlights various “contradictions” within Brazil’s regulatory landscape, with the government seemingly halting Caixa’s entrance into what is now a legal activity.

“With rising taxes, political debate and public backlash, the move risks undermining the regulated market itself,” the LatAm iGaming expert tells iGB.

“Instead of fostering a sustainable, competitive environment, these actions may end up strengthening the position of unlicensed, offshore operators, precisely the opposite of what regulation is meant to achieve.”

Questions over Caixa’s potential

Vieira has voiced his hopes Caixa will become a “major player” in the regulated Brazil betting market.

Caixa holds a legacy federal lottery monopoly, and its status as a state-owned bank means it should have strong brand recognition as a trusted entity in Brazil.

However, H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin doesn’t expect Caixa to be at the very top of the market, despite its existing lottery player base.

“I do not believe that they will be one of the number one operators,” Birkin told iGB earlier this month. “Lotteries have never done particularly well against commercial operators in the online betting and iGaming market.”

Birkin describes Vieira’s estimate of 2026 revenues between BRL2 billion and BRL2.5 billion as “highly ambitious”, with the upper band of that prediction placing Caixa at a market share of 7.5%, according to H2 data.

“It would be completely unheard of for a lottery operator to get to a podium position, or even a top five position in a commercial market,” Birkin explained.

However, Caixa may not need to invest as heavily in marketing as other operators entering the Brazilian market, since it can leverage its established lottery brand and possibly its existing player database.

This advantage, Birkin suggests, is one reason Caixa is likely to run a profitable betting operation.

“In terms of the financials, they can be profitable with a much lower market share than other people in the market,” Birkin said.

“They already have all the land-based network there, they already do have online operations. So it financially makes sense for them. It should very much be additive to their earnings. The financials are more compelling than they would be for commercial operators.”

For Q3, covering the three months to 30 September, revenue hit $166.3 million, up 38.2% from last year. This, Genius said, came following growth across each of its three core operating segments.

Betting technology, content and services remained the primary source of revenue for the group. However, it was media technology, content and services that stole the show, with revenue rocketing 88.9% year-on-year.

It was not all smooth sailing for Genius which, despite growth, ended the quarter at a net loss. This was primarily due to a negative foreign currency, while the group also saw certain operating expenses increase.

On the whole though, co-founder and CEO Mark Locke was upbeat about the quarter, with the hike in revenue his main focus. This, he said, was enough to make the group increase its full-year guidance with less than two months until the year ends.

“Our growth this quarter reflects our unique ability to combine sports data with audience intelligence to deliver personalised fan experiences at scale,” he said. “We’re extending our leadership in online sports betting and sports advertising through richer content, rapid product adoption and strong commercial momentum, driving continued growth and long-term value for our partners.”

Genius considers expansion into predictions

Locke also touched on one of the key talking points in the US sports betting market in recent months: the prediction markets.

Rather than make any commitment about whether Genius will into this sector, Locke said on an earnings call that the group will continue to observe developments before making a decision.

“As they evolve and mature, prediction markets may provide a meaningful new opportunity for us in expanding the addressable market,” he said. “While these products are nascent, they are evolving rapidly and the need for Genius official league data, marks and logos and integrity solutions will only grow as prediction markets become more sophisticated. This means that we are extremely well placed should we decide to engage.

“With regard to timing, we are being extremely considered and deliberate in our approach. We will work closely with key stakeholders across the ecosystem, our league partners, regulators, existing customers and, indeed, the prediction markets themselves to determine the next steps, and we are confident in our ability to capitalise on this opportunity in a responsible and sustainable way if we feel all of the requirements we need to be in place to participate in this market are met.

“Given the early and evolving nature of this market, we won’t be providing additional detail on this call, but I want to be clear, if we are confident that prediction markets will meet our robust regulatory and commercial thresholds, these developments could result in positive developments for Genius Sports and our future growth.”

What drove revenue growth?

Switching focus back to Q3, and beginning with the core betting segment, revenue jumped 38.3% to $110 million.

Genius attributed this to growth among existing customers after price increases on contract renewals and renegotiations. It also noted the positive impact of the expansion of value-add services, growth and expansion in existing markets, new service offerings, as well as new customer acquisitions.

As for the media business, revenue almost doubled from $22.1 million to $41.8 million. The group said this was mainly driven by higher programmatic advertising services during Q3.

The remaining $14.5 million came from the sports technology and services business, a rise of 16.4%. This was primarily attributed to an increase in sales of products built on GeniusIQ technology.

In terms of stand-put developments in Q3, Genius noted its acquisition of Sports Innovation Lab, strengthening its fan activation platform. It also expanded its partnerships with Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and ESPN Bet, launched the BetVision product for global basketball competitions, and secured exclusive official data and streaming rights with Italy’s Serie A.

Genius in the red in Q3

However, looking towards the bottom line, this is where the results did not read as positively for Genius.

Gross profit edged up year-on-year in Q3 but higher operating expenses meant the group posted an operating loss of $25.6 million, compared to $6.1 million in 2024. Spending was higher in almost all areas, with general and administrative expenditures amounting to $45.7 million, some 50.3% higher.

There was also a $7.5 million loss on foreign currency, in contrast to last year’s $21.1 million gain. As such, pre-tax loss stood at $33.2 million, compared to a $15 million profit in Q3 of 2024.

Genius received $2.6 million in income tax benefit and gained $1.8 million from equity method investment. This meant it ended Q3 with a net loss of $28.8 million, versus a $12.5 million profit last year. However, adjusted EBITDA was 32.3% higher at $34 million, at a margin of 20.4%.

In terms of the year-to-date, results made for similar reading. For the nine months through 30 September, group revenue was 27.9% higher at $429 million. Gross profit was higher but higher expenses offset revenue growth, leaving a net operating loss of $126.7 million, wider than last year’s $51.3 million loss.

Genius did note a $32.6 million foreign currency gain but still posted a pre-tax loss of $94.1 million, almost three times the $33.2 million loss at the same point in 2024.

The group took $302,000 in tax benefit and $2.9 million in equity method investment gain, with this resulting in a net loss of $91 million for the period, compared to the $34.8 million loss last year.

Adjusted EBITDA, on the other hand, climbed 64.7% to $87.9 million, at a margin of 20.5%.

Firm on improved full-year guidance

While net loss widened in Q3 and the year-to-date, Genius was steadfast in its confidence in raising full-year guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

For 2025, revenue is now expected to reach $655 million. This would surpass the restated target of $645 million after H1 and would beat last year’s actual revenue haul by 28%.

As for adjusted EBITDA, this is forecast to amount to approximately $136 million for the full year. Again, this is up from refreshed guidance of $135 million in the summer and would beat the previous year by 59%. Genius added that it also expects to generate positive annual cash flow in the full year.

“We are continuously proving the value of our platform – both in betting and in media – and this success is reflected in the results we’ve delivered to date,” Locke said. “We’re gaining significant momentum with brands and agencies and remain optimistic about the long-term potential of this business.”

Under the deal, the terms of which were undisclosed, Kambi will acquire source code for a PAM platform from OMEGA. Kambi said it selected OMEGA after a “rigorous” request for proposal processes.

At first, Kambi will focus on the Nevada sports betting market, where it secured licensure earlier in 2025. It has already started commercial discussions with prospective partners in the state and will now submit the platform for licensing.

Kambi also made reference to existing integrations between its sportsbook and the OMEGA platform, which is already being used by several partners and is connected to the Kambi front-end. As such, the provider expects only “minimal” resource requirements to bring it to market in Nevada, with the aim of it being product-ready in Nevada by the end of H1 2026.

Kambi to unlock commercial opportunities

Outside Nevada, Kambi said the acquisition would potentially open up opportunities in other jurisdictions where third-party PAM options are limited. This viewpoint was reflected by Kambi CEO Werner Becher in his comments on the deal.

“Kambi is already the trusted home of premium sports betting solutions, and this acquisition reinforces that leadership position,” Becher said. “While we remain platform-agnostic, the addition of an in-house PAM solution to our turnkey sportsbook ensures we can unlock commercial opportunities in Nevada and potentially in other jurisdictions as they arise.”

Jim Godsell, founder and CEO of OMEGA, said the deal would see Kambi “take control” of its PAM solution.

“Over the years, OMEGA and Kambi have provided combined solutions to operators in multiple jurisdictions,” Godsell said. “This acquisition allows Kambi to build on the OMEGA PAM architecture and enter new markets quickly.

“As is the case with other OMEGA licensees, Kambi is “Taking Control” of its PAM solution.”

Revenue and net profit down in Q3

In other news, Kambi published its results for the third quarter, revealing a decline in both revenue and net profit.

Revenue for the three months to 30 September reached €37.4 million ($42.9 million), down 13.1%. Kambi said while new partner launches had a positive impact, it was hit by a quieter sporting calendar, deposit limits in the Netherlands, increased taxes in several jurisdictions – such as in the Netherlands – and new commercial terms of certain renewed contracts.

“Since the start of Q3, Kambi has signed seven turnkey sportsbook partners, three Odds Feed+ deals and two partner renewals – a clear reflection of the commercial progress we are making,” Becher said

“Our Q3 financial performance was disciplined in a period impacted by a quieter sporting calendar, which last year included the Euros, Copa América and the Olympics, and the ongoing increased impact of gaming-related taxes.”

Operator turnover in the quarter decreased by 6% year-on-year, with performances mixed across Kambi’s active markets. Operator turnover in Americas climbed 8.9%, helped by going live in the newly regulated Brazil market. However, turnover in Europe dropped by 21.8%, again on the back of higher taxes and fewer sporting events.

In terms of costs, spending was lower on the whole, but reduced revenue meant operating profit slipped 54.6% to €1.6 million. Pre-tax profit was also down 50.9% to €1.8 million.

Kambi paid €820,000 in tax, leaving €1 million in net profit, a drop of 61.5%. In addition, adjusted EBITDA dropped 14.1% to €11.6 million.

Kambi heading for full-year decline?

As for the year-to-date, revenue in the nine months to the end of September sat 9.6% lower at €119.3 million. Gross profit was also down 11.8% to €104.3 million and operating profit 71.8% to €4 million on the back of this.

Pre-tax profit declined 70.1% to €4.3 million while after €2.3 million in tax, net profit hit €2.1 million, a drop of 79.8%. Adjusted EBITDA for the period was also 19.7% lower at €35.1 million.

However, despite the declines, Becher was upbeat on future prospects, including the new opportunities with the PAM.

“With the busy sporting calendar upon us, we continue to focus on delivering an unbeatable product and service to our partners while building the foundations for long-term growth,” he said. “The recent commercial wins, ongoing improvements to our market-leading product, the opportunities that the PAM will create, as well as the continued progress of our efficiency programme are, together, evidence of the positive momentum we are building.

“When coupled with the exciting opportunities we continue to pursue, I have growing confidence we will deliver sustainable growth and long-term returns for our shareholders.”

For the period ended 30 September, revenue amounted to €1.64 billion ($1.88 billion), the Italian-facing operator reported. This surpassed the previous year at Lottomatica by 16%.

Key to this growth, the operator said, was the SKS365 deal, which completed in April 2024. Now referred to as PWO by Lottomatica, integration by the operator has been completed sooner than anticipated.

As such, Lottomatica said synergies are being delivered ahead of schedule. Two-thirds of synergies from the acquisition are expected to be realised in 2025, with PWO now fully operational on the group’s proprietary platform.

Calm, collected approach from Lottomatica

Despite the success of the acquisition, and delivering targets earlier than expected, Lottomatica said it will not jump into another deal. Instead, as Angelozzi set out in an earnings call, the operator will retain its calculated approach to M&A.

Over the past five years, Angelozzi revealed, the group identified 57 targets for possible M&A. However, it elected to proceed with just three deals, despite having completed due diligence on 14 potential agreements.

The three that completed were all in Italy, including SKS365, now PWO. It also completed the purchase of Betflag in late 2022 and a 65% stake in Distante S.r.l earlier in 2025.

“With M&A, we are going to keep our disciplined approach, measured on value creation and benchmarked against share buybacks,” Angelozzi said. “We have a very selective approach, and we are committed to it.

“Share buyback continues to be remain the main benchmark for shareholder return with our M&A activity. Our focus is on Europe, regulated markets and B2C, within the key segments of operation at Lottomatica.”

His comments reflected similar remarks made after both Q1 and the first half. Post-Q1, Angelozzi spoke about “interesting opportunities” for the group, while at the mid-point of 2025, he refused to rule out more M&A activity in the not-too-distant future.

Double-digit online growth in 9M

Looking to performance for the nine-month period, online was the star of the show for Lottomatica. Revenue climbed 27% to €688.9 million, making it the primary revenue source for the business.

As well as the contribution from PWO, the group said other factors were in play to support the year-on-year increase. These included growth across all product segments and legacy brands, notwithstanding the unfavourable impact deriving from Euro 2024. However, this was partially offset by the FIFA World Club Cup in Q2 2025.

There was also double-digit growth in the sports betting segment, with revenue up 22% to €381.7 million. Again, the PWO purchase helped push revenue up, while Lottomatica also noted an overall favourable sport betting payout.

The group also reported growth within its gaming business, but at a much lower rate than the other segments. Gaming revenue increased 2% to €569.6 million, sandwiched between online and sports betting.

As for player activity, some 32.48 billion bets were placed during the nine-month period. Of these, 21.63 billion were online, 8.05 billion for gaming activities and 2.81 billion sports bets.

Net profit more than doubles

Looking towards the bottom line, spending was higher in almost all areas. The main outgoing was cost of services at €962.6 million, while personnel and other costs were also both higher year-on-year. However, some savings were made in terms of financial expenses.

As such, pre-tax profit for the nine-month period was €158.4 million, a 59.5% increase from last year. Lottomatica paid €60.1 million in tax and deducted €5.0 million in revenue attributable to non-controlling interests.

This meant it ended the nine months with €93.3 million in net profit, up by 102.8% year-on-year.

“Looking forward, we continue to see solid drivers of growth supported by market tailwinds in online, continued improvement in our cash flow conversion and growth and a disciplined approach to capital allocation focused on shareholder returns,” Angelozzi said.

The BRL3.7 billion figure represents 27% of the total amount granted to Bolsa Família recipients during the month of January.

Betting among social welfare recipients is a contentious issue in Brazil and a ban on gambling by those beneficiaries was formally announced in late September.

The TCU, a federal audit office, conducted the study to establish whether families were using the money from social welfare programmes to bet online, finding the amount spent was “very high”.

As part of the study, the TCU analysed data on financial transfers made from the government to Bolsa Família recipients. Additionally, the study also utilised data from the Ministry of Social Development, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank.

The TCU ordered the Ministry of Social Development, Assistance, Family and Fight against Hunger, as well as the Central Bank, to submit an action plan to identify and reduce improper inclusions in the Bolsa Família programme within 90 days.

Additionally, the department called for bank transactions that “excessively exceed” players’ declared income amounts to be used as evidence.

An investigation into the misuse of beneficiaries’ Individual Taxpayer Registration numbers by third parties for illicit purposes, especially gambling, has been called for.

Ban on betting among social welfare beneficiaries in Brazil

The discussion over betting among social welfare beneficiaries gathered real momentum last year ahead of regulation coming in on 1 January.

In November 2024, the Supreme Federal Court upheld an emergency measure to prohibit betting via social welfare proceeds.

In late September, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets published Normative Ordinance No 2,217/2025 and Normative Instruction No 22, completely banning recipients of the Bolsa Família and Continuous Benefit Payment programmes from fixed-odds betting.

A database of social welfare beneficiaries has been established and betting operators are required to consult it when verifying player registrations and logins.

Operators must also cross-check bettors’ CPF numbers in Sigap, Brazil’s betting management system, to identify any users listed as welfare recipients.

These checks must be conducted at least every 15 days for all registered users. If a user appears in the database, operators must block their registration, close their account and refund any deposited monies.

Operators were initially given 30 days to comply with the ban, although this deadline has been extended by an additional 30 days.

Does the ban go too far?

The ban has proved hugely divisive. Lawyer Luiz Felipe Maia has suggested the prohibition constitutes a civil rights issue.

Maia, founding partner of Brazilian law firm Maia Yoshiyasu Advogados, previously told iGB: “At the end of the day it becomes a civil rights issue, because what we’re saying is, ‘Okay, if I am in a situation where I need welfare, I cannot decide where I’m going to spend my money, so I have limited freedom’.

“Either you give them stamps and say, ‘Okay, these stamps are for food and you can only use those for food’, or you’re giving them money and you’re allowing them to decide what they’re going to do with that money.”

Some have warned too that the prohibition could simply lead to banned players looking to the black market to bet.

The National Association of Games and Lotteries believes the ban goes too far, with the initial ruling only prohibiting the use of social welfare money for betting.

An ANJL-commissioned study shared with BNL Data found that 45% of social welfare beneficiaries plan to turn to the black market to continue gambling once the ban takes effect.

What was once a familiar fixture of local life and working-class leisure could soon become a casualty of what the gambling industry has called a shortsighted fiscal ambition. 

Even before the threat of new levies, the retail segment was faltering as the nation’s gambling habits migrated largely online. Quarterly updates from Entain – with over 2,000 stores across its Ladbrokes and Coral brands – have repeatedly described retail as a “stable” but low-growth segment, although the group insists it “treasures” its shops as the backbone of its brand.

Major operators have issued stark warnings against a hike, insisting the impact could wipe out retail betting in the country, with thousands of jobs and hundreds of shops at stake. Aside from Flutter’s recent closures, Evoke, which operates 1,300 William Hill outlets, has also threatened to close as many as 200 shops – 15% of its estate – if taxes rise. As have Entain and Betfred.

“If [the tax rate] went up to anywhere like 40% or even 35% there is no profit in the business,” Betfred founder Fred Done said in an interview with the BBC on 19 October. “We would have to close it down … probably 7,500 job losses.”

Speaking to iGB, a spokesperson for Flutter UK & Ireland reiterates the impact a rise could have on its retail business, noting it has already had to close shops even before any tax increase. “We unfortunately had to close 57 Paddy Power shops last month – and that’s before any increase in gambling duty. Any tax increase on business isn’t a free hit, it comes with consequences,” they warn.

Tax hike will ‘devastate’ UK high street bookmaker jobs

A rise in gambling duty will have a significant effect on jobs and sports sponsorships, as well as offering a huge boost to an illegal black market that has almost tripled in size in the UK in the past three years. 

A report commissioned by the UK’s Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) in October claimed such a “tax raid” could wipe out £3.1 billion from the UK’s economic output and threaten more than 40,000 jobs.

The analysis by EY found that once lost employment, reduced corporation tax and lower National Insurance contributions are considered, the Treasury’s net gain from the proposed UK gambling tax hikes could fall below £500 million.

“Further tax hikes would devastate jobs, reduce Treasury revenues and drive billions into the hands of the black market,” the BGC tells iGB.

The impact of a possible UK gambling tax rise on the already suffering retail sector has been clearly outlined by stakeholders, but some parliamentarians appear skeptical of the sector’s warnings.

Treasury committee doubts impact of remote tax hike on retail

During a Treasury committee session held in Parliament on 28 October, committee members probed BGC CEO Grainne Hurst and the trade body’s tax policy advisor, Stephen Hodgson, on the issue, seemingly expressing doubts over the sector’s threats that retail would take a hit even if remote taxes were to increase.

Hurst confirmed that UK gambling companies operated a “circular economy” and a single profit-and-loss model, meaning any impact to one side of the business would inherently be felt across the group.

“They will be reinvesting money they make in one part of their business into another. And so if we see any additional further tax increases on any part of the sector, it is likely to have an effect on the retail side of the business,” Hurst told the panel.

“These are businesses that operate in an integrated manner. So if you were to increase remote taxes and leave land-based taxes untouched, you would still see a consequence on the overall ecosystem,” Hodgson added.

“If you look at some of the larger businesses the BGC represents, they are quite integrated. That’s how they manage to achieve economies of scale and become the large, successful businesses they are. And they will look at costs across the board.”

Could the retail sector be shielded from the impact?

Elsewhere, the panel discussed the potential of specifically shielding the retail sector from any tax increase by establishing a separate rate for online and retail betting activities.

Currently the sector pays a flat 15% General Betting Duty across profits made from bets made both online and in-person. But during the meeting Paddy Power co-founder Stewart Kenny proposed a separate lower rate for retail activities to help protect high street bookies from extinction.

“I believe there should be provisions in any taxation [model] that betting shops will be lower, because I think they can be a real social [hub] for people who don’t drink, to have fun. Betting shops do have a future, but obviously like [everything] on the high street they are going to suffer,” he said.

A social institution under threat 

Operators have equally raised concerns over the human impact of shop closures. In an interview with The Times, Entain CEO Stella David said closures would be a blow to community identity. “We don’t want to close shops,” she said. “These are part of Britain’s cultural fabric – not just places to bet, but places where people come together.” 

The sense of loss is echoed across the industry, says Bethan Lloyd, senior associate at Wiggin LLP who previously worked in William Hill’s legal team. She points to the special place the high street bookmakers hold in the lives of punters.  

“Many of these bookies serve as something of a social base for their regular customers; it is sad that this will be taken away,” she notes.

“Many of our shops play a central role in communities and we are committed to our retail estate, but clearly any duty rise in the upcoming budget could impact our plans,” the Flutter spokesperson adds.

Dan Waugh, a partner at Regulus Partners, believes the disappearance of the betting shop will have real social consequences. “Millions of people choose to bet and watch racing in shops despite the fact they can do both at home. A meaningful number of consumers will find their lives negatively impacted by the withdrawal of an activity that brings them pleasure,” he says. 

Impact on mental health 

Mark Pearson, Betfred’s head of corporate affairs and communications, stresses there is a lot more at stake than just a line on a balance sheet. “Retail is the very heartbeat of our business,” he says. “Fred [Done] started with just one shop in 1967. Betting shops are a massive part of communities and high streets.”

He also warns the knock-on effects would be profound. An impacted retail sector would mean reduced investment in horse racing and sport, and not least “a free pass for the black market that offers no protection for vulnerable players.” 

The BGC estimates that 1.5 million Britons stake up to £4.3bn annually with unlicensed operators in a growing black market.

Dan Waugh at Regulus Partners also adds a sobering warning that funding for treatment of gambling disorders, as well as harm prevention initiatives and research, is at risk of falling too. Under the new statutory levy, around 90% of funding comes from betting shops, online betting and online gaming.  

“If consumer spending in these channels falls as a result of tax increases, then we may see essential mental health treatment services collapse.”

The human cost 

The threat to the UK land-based gambling sector is not just about betting shops. The proposed UK gambling tax structures from think tanks such as the IPPR and Social Market Foundation (SMF) would hit all land-based gambling venues – from casinos and bingo clubs to seaside arcades.

Dan Waugh believes the SMF and IPPR reports which propose more than doubling current UK gambling tax rates are of “extremely poor quality”.

“Neither think tank appears to have considered the impact of shutting down large swathes of the land-based industry,” he laments. “Clearly, omnichannel incentives will be far less relevant if there are far fewer shops,” he says of crucial player retention strategies that operators have built over years.

But Lloyd acknowledges that successfully converting customers between online and retail has been a challenge for all the major operators. She says many retail clients don’t regularly bet online and stricter marketing rules have added a layer of complexity to omnichannel approaches.

Behind UK high street bookmakers lie thousands of British employees, many of whom have spent decades in the same communities and companies. Lloyd notes the personal cost is that these staffers will unlikely be redeployed as the industry is tightening its belt across the board.  

UK high street bookmaker employees won’t be redeployed

This will also negatively impact the consumer experience, Lloyd says: “This route will be minimised or removed, and with it, the grassroots knowledge of the punter and the product.”  

Waugh agrees that political advocates of the tax hike underestimate this disruption. “It is easy for people in Westminster think tanks to say that betting shop employees can easily find work elsewhere,” he says. “This ignores the fact that unemployment is rising, that in some parts of the country jobs simply aren’t there.”  

The industry’s geography aggravates the issue. “Online gambling – as with ecommerce in general – tends to concentrate employment in a small number of locations,” Waugh notes. “There might be some opportunities for shop workers in places like Stoke-on-Trent and Leeds, but these are exceptions.” 

The end of an era? 

Retail betting shop closures could have a ripple effect across British racing and related industries. A quarter of racing turnover occurs in betting shops, meaning their disappearance would erode media rights revenues and levy receipts.

“Racing will be the most impacted,” says Lloyd. “Given the demographic of the shops’ customers and their betting patterns.” 

As the chancellor’s autumn budget approaches, the industry’s lobbying has reached fever pitch. Entain’s David has urged policymakers to look beyond short-term revenue. “When you start damaging the regulated market, you don’t get less gambling, you just get less safe gambling,” she has told the media.

The image of the British bookmaker has endured for decades. But it now stands at a crossroads. Taxation that aims to boost public finances could instead hollow out the very communities it is meant to serve and, if the environment becomes unsustainable for the operators, policymakers may soon witness the disappearance of one of Britain’s last surviving high street institutions.  

The 2025 shutdown is the 15th by the US government since 1980. However, most of those lasted a week or less. On Tuesday, this edition became tied for the longest ever, which stretched from 22 December 2018 to 22 January 2019 during President Donald Trump’s first term. With the US Senate rejecting a stopgap funding bill for the 14th time, this shutdown will now officially become the longest.

For the gaming industry, a prolonged shutdown puts pressure on both retail and digital stakeholders. Fears related to sluggish tourism and air travel, especially for Las Vegas, will continue to mount, as will uncertainty regarding prediction markets and federal financial regulators.

The American Gaming Association, the industry’s lobbying arm, has not commented directly on the shutdown but referred iGB to a letter from the US Travel Association dated Monday, which the AGA co-signed. The letter was addressed to Senate and House leaders. Other gaming co-signers included Delaware North, Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts.

“As a broad coalition of organisations and companies representing every sector of the US travel industry, we urge Congress to immediately pass a clean continuing resolution to reopen the federal government,” the letter reads in part. “With Thanksgiving, the busiest travel period of the year, imminently approaching, the consequences of a continued shutdown will be immediate, deeply felt by millions of American travellers and economically devastating to communities in every state.”

Las Vegas most likely to feel air travel strain

For consumers and travellers, disruption to air travel is one of the most noticeable aspects of a shutdown. Air traffic controllers for the Federal Aviation Administration have missed one paycheck and are on track to miss another in the coming days. This strain has led to staffing shortages and subsequent traffic delays in airports around the country.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said at a press conference on Tuesday that if the shutdown extends for another week, the nation “will see mass chaos”.

“You will see mass flight delays,” he warned, per Politico. “You will see mass cancellations. And you may see us close certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have the air traffic controllers.”

That is a worrying development for Las Vegas, America’s premier gambling destination. Monthly visitation has not seen a meaningful year-over-year increase since September 2024, and Trump’s aggressive tariff and trade policies had already been impacting international traffic, especially from top feeder markets Canada and Mexico. International traffic to Harry Reid International Airport was down more than 13% YoY in September.

Despite these trends, gaming revenue had been increasing for three consecutive months, but that too slipped back in September. The stage is now set for a pressure-packed Q4, which features the annual Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix in November as well as the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday breaks.

It is hard to pinpoint the exact economic impact the government shutdown is having or will have on Las Vegas. But the US Travel Association in September estimated that the travel industry as a whole would lose $1 billion per week.

Prediction markets abound during government shutdown

Unfortunately for digital stakeholders, they too are seeing the effects of a strained federal workforce. The rise of prediction markets in late 2024 and early 2025 has captivated the gaming industry, and their rise has been attributed in part to federal law and regulations.

Prediction markets operate as financial exchanges through which users can place contracts on wide-ranging events that relate to economics, politics, pop culture and, most recently, sports. By venturing into sporting events, they are now direct competitors to state-licensed commercial bookmakers. They are regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. As a result of the lapse in federal funding, the CFTC has curtailed operations.

The CFTC was already stretched incredibly thin before the shutdown. Acting Chairwoman Caroline Pham is currently serving as the sole commissioner amid several resignations. There are typically five commissioners at any given time, all of whom must be nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate.

Pham has indicated she too will step down when a new chairperson is confirmed. Trump’s first nominee, Brian Quintenz, had his nomination pulled, and Securities and Exchange Commission crypto chief Michael Selig is the new nominee. Thus, Selig or whoever else is confirmed would still be the lone commissioner until other nominations are advanced.

Less regulation, more valuation

Prediction markets have seen an influx of legal challenges from a number of states in 2025. So far, they have clung to the argument that the CFTC is their lone regulator, not state agencies. The gaming industry, in response, has questioned the commission’s ability to effectively serve as a national gambling watchdog.

Forty-eight of 50 US states have some form of legal gambling, and a regulatory body is staffed to oversee each jurisdiction. Some states, like Nevada and New Jersey, allow considerable gaming operations and therefore allocate abundant resources to policing the legal gambling industry. Even with these frameworks in place, scandals and controversies still arise.

The CFTC has less than 700 full-time staff total, with a national scope overseeing trillions of dollars in commodities, futures and, now, prediction markets.

The longer the shutdown continues, the more uncertainty the CFTC faces. Many federal workers from various agencies are potentially facing layoffs, although legal battles on this issue have already begun. Other financial bodies like the Federal Trade Commission, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Treasury Department have seen staff reductions this year.

Prediction markets, in the meantime, have flourished under the current environment. Platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have fetched multibillion-dollar valuations and both are now partners of the National Hockey League. Meanwhile, the stocks of sports betting market leaders Flutter (FanDuel parent) and DraftKings have dropped by nearly 30% and 40%, respectively, since 1 September.

At a time when talk of a Las Vegas slowdown swirls as visitation dips, Stevens isn’t interested in writing Sin City’s obituary. The numbers tell a different story. Even with fewer visitors, Las Vegas gaming revenue continues to rise. The Las Vegas casino market is evolving, not dying, he says.

With properties such as The D and Circa Resort & Casino – the first new hotel-casino development on Fremont Street since 1980 – Stevens is credited as one of the pioneers revitalising Downtown Las Vegas. And others are following his lead. “We’ve got nine construction cranes over downtown,” he notes, proof that development there is booming, not busting.

Listen to the World Series of Politics on Apple Podcasts

Do taxing times for sports betting worry Derek Stevens?

Stevens has also redefined the sportsbook model with Circa Sports, championing a low-hold, value-odds sportsbook that prioritises fair pricing over gimmicks. Circa’s success has been powered by expansion into multiple states. It offers something different, and it even secured one of Missouri’s two untethered sportsbook licences, beating out larger rivals in the process.

But Stevens warns that rising sports betting tax rates, especially like what Illinois has implemented, threaten the industry’s sustainability. In his words, these levies amount to “illegal bookmaker preservation taxes”. These measures hurt legal operators and risk driving bettors to offshore sportsbooks.

For Stevens, smart policy is key. Kentucky’s sports betting framework is “best in class”. Over-taxed markets like Illinois show how governments can “win the short term but lose the long game”.

All this and more in the latest World Series of Politics podcast!

The Betway and Spin owner reported strong performances in the UK and Africa, with the revenues in these markets increasing by 71% and 36% respectively.

The growth in Africa was driven by “solid gains” in Malawi and Tanzania, as well as a 23% revenue rise in South Africa, the operator said. Africa and the Middle East accounted for up to 40% of Super Group’s total revenue in Q3, up from 38% in the same period last year.

In the UK, meanwhile, sports betting revenue shot up 89%, while online casino also increased by 67%.

Analysts at Regulus Partners said the group was “continuing a very strong run which suggests run-rate market share in the UK has grown by 1.6pts to 3.8%”.

Total monthly active customers across all brands reached an all-time high monthly average of 5.5 million in Q3, marking an 18% increase year-on-year. in September alone Super Group reached a record of around six million monthly actives.

Super Group CEO Neal Menashe believes the company’s Q3 performance demonstrates the continued strength of its platform and execution across its core markets.

“Despite customer-friendly outcomes in September, we delivered record-level customer engagement, strong revenue growth and margin expansion,” Menashe said.

“Hitting six million monthly active customers was another significant milestone, a reflection of our product innovation and local execution.”

Canada also a Q3 success story, although LatAm declines

LatAm revenue for Super Group in Q3 dropped from $6 million to $4 million, although growth in Africa and the UK offset that decline.

Canada was another success story for Super Group in the period, with the market increasing its revenue by 15% when excluding Ontario, which grew just 3% year-on-year.

Growth in Canada led Super Group to a 12.4% hike in North America revenue. This will likely be the last full quarter in which US revenue is included in the earnings as the company is set to close its US business in Q4.

Super Group has been offering iGaming in Pennsylvania and New Jersey for some time, although it announced in June it would pull out of the US due to “regulatory shifts impacting long-term US expected profitability”.

Super Group again increases guidance

Strong results left Super Group with an adjusted EBITDA of $152 million (up 65.2%) and a Q3 profit of $95.8 million, a mammoth 830% increase from the $10.3 million reported last year.

Notably, the operator said it had adopted a change in presentation currency from euros to USD as of January. Accordingly, the comparative table has been re-presented retrospectively in line with the change.

As a result of its strong results, Super Group has raised its full-year revenue forecast by 3% to $2.17 billon-$2.27 billion from its previous target of $2.125 billion-$2.2 billion.

The operator also raised its full year adjusted EBITDA forecast slightly to $555 million-$565 million from $550 million-$560 million.

Super Group CFO Alinda van Wyk said of its Q3 results: “Our disciplined investment in high-return markets, combined with operational efficiencies and improved marketing ROI, continues to translate into expanding margins.

“Our balance sheet remains robust with $462 million in cash, giving us both flexibility and confidence as we look ahead to 2026.”

Super Group previously raised its guidance in September at an investor day after a stronger-than-expected start to the quarter.

Previously, Super Group was anticipating ex-US group revenue of at least $2.04 billion, with a forecast of between $470 million and $480 million for adjusted EBITDA.

Analysts suggest path for future Super Group growth

In its note, Regulus Partners highlighted the company’s decision to not enter “expensive new markets with the vigour of many of its competitors”, claiming many of those businesses are now potential M&A targets.

After a strong Q3, Regulus believes Super Group should alter its strategy slightly to continue its growth.

“Super Group’s regulatory risk profile remains relatively ‘spicy’, our view, but while macro growth in mature markets has consistently saved the day in the past, Super Group must now pivot into emerging markets to maintain momentum,” Regulus said.

According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, the state generated gross gaming revenue of $1.28 billion for the month, a 2.2% decrease year-over-year. The Las Vegas Strip see-sawed from a 5% gain in August to a 5% decrease in September, posting GGR of $687. 8 million. For the fiscal year-to-date, the state is up 2% over last year’s pace while the Strip is up 1.5%.

Baccarat performance on the Strip plummeted 42% YoY to $50.6 million, continuing an extremely volatile stretch for the game. The Strip is +22% for baccarat over the past three months but is -2% over the last 12. For September, the Strip was down 17.5% on table games as a whole.

Nevada set three consecutive fiscal year gaming revenue records from 2022-2024. FY25 broke that streak, but the state is again trending upward, at least for now. September was the first red month of FY26 and all eyes now are on Q4, historically the busiest season of the year for Las Vegas.

But while gaming revenue has been up and down, visitation has only been down, with few signs it will turn around soon.

Troubling visitation, air traffic numbers in September

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported September visitor volume of 3.09 million, a 9% decrease YoY. It has now been a full calendar year since the city posted a YoY visitor gain of more than 1%, which last occurred in September 2024.

As a whole, the LVCVA’s database is rather grim. Convention attendance was down more than 18% and all occupancy, room rate and revenue metrics were in the red. The lone exceptions were car travel on all highways (+2.5%) and travel on Interstate 15 near the California border (+3.4%).

Air travel fared no better, as September traffic at Harry Reid International Airport fell 6% to 4.4 million passengers. Total traffic is now down 5% year-to-date.

The most glaring statistic was a 13.5% skid in international travel, which has been a particularly sore spot for Las Vegas tourism this year. Traffic from Canada and Mexico, the city’s top international markets, has been markedly down this year in response to several factors, including the aggressive tariff and trade policies of US President Donald Trump.

All of the following Canadian and Mexican airlines were down significantly YoY in September:

• Air Canada (-18%)
• WestJet (-44%)
• Volaris (-9%)
• Aeromexico (-11%)

Big Strip operators reeling?

The strain on the Strip and the resulting influx of customers to smaller operators has been shown thus far in third-quarter earnings results.

Caesars and MGM, the two biggest operators to report so far, were both down markedly in Las Vegas, which was also the case in Q2. Wynn managed to buck that trend and post gains in Q2 but has yet to report for the most recent quarter. While Caesars CEO Tom Reeg and MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle had long downplayed concerns for the market, both were more cautious on their Q3 calls.

Hornbuckle said he and his contemporaries deserved “shame” for their high prices and vowed to correct that trend. He told analysts his company is ” proactively working to create initiatives and draw incremental visitation”.

Reeg, for his part, said the market is “four months into this step-down in leisure demand for Vegas”, adding that his company is “still not back to where we were on a year-over-year basis”.

Locals and regionals surge amid Las Vegas tourism woes

Meanwhile, locals operators and ancillary markets are seeing positive results amid the Strip malaise.

Red Rock Resorts saw its net revenue for the quarter increase 1.5% while its net profit surged more than 38%. Boyd Gaming saw overall revenue and profit increase while its Las Vegas locals segment “achieved its strongest quarterly growth in more than two years with year-over-year growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDAR, while segment margins were nearly 50%”, the company said.

In an investor note last week, Macquarie gaming analyst Chad Beynon wrote he was worried “softness from the leisure/international customer” in Las Vegas will “last through year-end” after a strong post-Covid run.

“Conversely, trends in US Regionals remain strong, and we expect this segment to continue outperforming Vegas for the remainder of the year,” Beynon wrote.

All eyes will now be on the fourth quarter, which is typically a big driver for Las Vegas tourism. The Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday breaks mixed with a busy sports, entertainment and conference schedule tend to buoy the slower spring and summer months.

Hopes pinned on F1 to jumpstart new growth

The third edition of the Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix is also set for 20-22 November, and stakeholders are hopeful that can return to growth as well.

During the record-setting days of 2023, the race generated an estimated $1.5 billion in economic impact, the most ever for a single event. The 2024 race, by comparison, was pegged to have generated $934 million. As mentioned, that point (November 2024) was right around the beginning of the downward trend.

Leading the charge for promoting the race is the LVCVA and its CEO, Steve Hill. Hill and company have had their work cut out for them in 2025 to combat the city’s visitation drop. The agency this year has travelled to Canada, rolled out a new ad campaign and organised a city-wide Las Vegas sale in September. F1 is now the next key event on the calendar.

“We’ve refined access and mobility plans, strengthened communication with residents and employees, and expanded transportation options,” Hill told iGB recently. “The Las Vegas Grand Prix team also listened closely to feedback from the community, resorts and fans, resulting in a more collaborative and responsive approach to hosting the race.”

Analysing the factors at play

From a market-wide perspective, stakeholders will be taking a close look at many headwinds that could be a drag on Q4 performance. Some fears might be easier to explain away than others, and this may well be a disappointing overall year for the sector.

Josh Swissman, managing director for GMA Consulting, told iGB his outlook will be shaped by specific factors at play. He suggested that tough YoY comparisons due to changing entertainment or conference schedules, or just poorer operating performance, are easier to stomach than overall visitation trends.

“If [poor performance] is due more systemically to decreased planing and deplaning numbers or vehicles crossing the California border, and it’s like that for, say, 89 out of the 90 days in the quarter, well shoot, that’s indicative of a bigger problem and something that would perhaps be a little more concerning,” he said.

Apprehension started to mount in February over the possibility of Ohio Republican Brian Quintenz becoming the next chair of the CFTC. Quintenz, a former CFTC commissioner nominated that month by US President Donald Trump, had direct ties to prediction markets as a sitting board member for Kalshi. Additionally, Quintenz publicly advocated for another exchange, ErisX, in its failed attempt to offer sports contracts in 2021.

Now, Quintenz’s nomination has been pulled after multiple hiccups, and Trump this week announced a new nominee: Michael Selig. Selig’s expertise is cryptocurrency, from both a regulatory and legal perspective.

While the gaming industry has been focused primarily on prediction markets, the Quintenz-Selig shuffle could signify that crypto is the real prize at stake. Yet with Quintenz also heavily involved in crypto himself, it could also just be more of the same.

Who is Michael Selig, the new CFTC chair nominee?

Selig currently serves as chief counsel of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Crypto Task Force and as a senior advisor to SEC Chair Paul Atkins. Back in 2014-15, Selig also worked in the office of former CFTC commissioner J Christopher Giancarlo, per LinkedIn.

Giancarlo was a commissioner at the time Selig worked for him, but he went on to become CFTC chair in 2017 during Trump’s first term. He has since adopted the nickname “Crypto Dad” for his support of digital assets and published a book under that title in 2021.

David Sacks, Trump’s so-called “AI and Crypto Czar”, said in an X post that Selig has “been instrumental in driving forward the President’s crypto agenda” at the SEC, adding that he and Selig will “deliver on President Trump’s promise to make the US the crypto capital of the planet”.

In response, Selig posted that he would “work tirelessly to facilitate Well-Functioning Commodity Markets, promote Freedom, Competition and Innovation and help the President make the United States the Crypto Capital of the World”.

Quintenz nomination lost early momentum

Quintenz’s candidacy, if charted on a prediction market, might look like something of a bad beat. It started strong, but the longer his nomination dragged on without confirmation, the more things started to unravel.

Quintenz faced questioning during a Senate hearing in June and his confirmation vote was twice delayed afterward, both times abruptly and at the last minute. In July, the release of internal CFTC emails through a FOIA request from The Closing Line newsletter suggested undue access for the yet-unconfirmed Quintenz.

Then, billionaire crypto twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss got involved, leading Quintenz to distance himself in September by posting threatening messages he had received from Tyler. The messages claimed the CFTC “abused” its power in previous legal action against Gemini, the twins’ crypto trading platform.

“It’s my understanding that after this exchange they contacted the president and asked that my confirmation be paused for reasons other than what is reflected in these texts,” Quintenz posted on X.

The White House pulled his nomination on 30 September before nominating Selig weeks later.

CFTC chair candidates share multiple similarities

Between the two nominees, Selig has fewer direct connections to prediction markets than Quintenz. But there are some connections, and Quintenz’s crypto experience ultimately could make the two more similar than not.

According to InGame, Selig’s name appears on a July 2024 letter submitted by venture capital firm Paradigm Operations to the CFTC in support of Kalshi’s legitimacy as a prediction market.

Kalshi had not begun offering sports contracts at the time, but Paradigm argued that “the CFTC’s characterisation of political contests, awards contests and sporting events as forms of ‘gaming’ is arbitrary and capricious”. Selig was among three attorneys from the firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP representing Paradigm. The VC firm would go on to invest in Kalshi this year.

Quintenz, for his part, is also heavily involved in crypto. He became an advisor to Crypto.com months after leaving the CFTC in late 2021, and he spent the past four years at Andressen Horowitz (or a16z), a crypto-focused VC firm. Since late 2022, Quintenz has served as its head of policy for crypto. His tenure as a CFTC commissioner also aligned with Giancarlo’s tenure as chair.

Based on these points, it remains to be seen whether gaming stakeholders would view Selig as a more favourable candidate by comparison.

Regulatory questions at play for CFTC, SEC

Since Trump took office for his second term in January, crypto advancement has been a key goal for the administration. The GENIUS Act, the most significant regulatory bill for digital assets introduced in the US to date, was signed into law in July. Another similar bill, the CLARITY Act, passed the House in July but has been sitting in the Senate since September.

Prediction markets have not seen the same level of legislative or regulatory clarity. Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham hosted a meeting with tribal gaming stakeholders earlier this year but did little to assuage their concerns. In an advisory issued in late September, the CFTC gave no concrete guidance and essentially said it has yet to determine the validity of sports contracts.

In the meantime, the influx of new crypto rules could put the SEC and CFTC in tough spots with regard to oversight and delineation. The agencies have historically been independent of one another. As their names suggest, the SEC primarily oversees securities like stocks and bonds, while the CFTC oversees commodities and derivatives.

Various forms of digital assets like crypto might not fall neatly within one box or another. Notably, Selig has had intimate dealings with both agencies in his career thus far.

The two agencies in September held a unique roundtable discussing possible regulatory synergies. Among the panellists were Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour and Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan, although neither participated much. Crypto interests were also well-represented by officials from Crypto.com, Robinhood and Kraken.

Before Selig’s nomination, a sense emerged among observers that the SEC’s Atkins was gaining momentum as a potential CFTC chair candidate as well. Such a consolidation would have been unprecedented, but the subsequent roundtable was perhaps an indication that their relationship is aligning closer.

Crypto interests dwarf prediction markets

The true breadth of the CFTC’s remit was perhaps best shown in Quintenz’s Senate hearing. For almost two hours, lawmakers presented questions about agriculture, ranching, commodities, crypto and, to a much lesser degree, event contracts on prediction markets.

That divide in priorities seems to be more apparent as the saga plays out. It was the crypto-focused Winklevosses, not the collective furor of the regulated gaming industry, that proved to be Quintenz’s downfall, and perhaps for good reason: the crypto market this summer eclipsed a total market value of $4 trillion.

By comparison, nationwide gross revenue this year from casinos, sports betting and iGaming combined was $51.1 billion through August, per the American Gaming Association. Sports betting, the vertical most closely associated with prediction markets, accounted for $10 billion of that.

Prediction markets are also small in scope when compared to crypto’s trillions. Leading exchanges Kalshi and Polymarket are garnering multibillion-dollar valuations but there are few other significant players as of yet. Additionally, gaming companies like FanDuel, DraftKings and Robinhood have already launched or are planning to launch prediction markets, which could saturate the market.

Prediction markets make money off trading commissions and other transaction fees. As such, the exchanges often see billions in weekly trading volume (not directly equivalent to sportsbook handle) but their revenue is only a small fraction of that.

Notably, though, prediction markets do not have to pay state gaming or federal excise taxes, nor do they have responsible gaming obligations to answer for.

Trump administration connected to both sides

The connections to both crypto and prediction markets are everywhere in Trump’s administration. Donald Trump Jr is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket, having endorsed them after they correctly predicted his father’s election victory last November. 1789 Capital, a firm backed by Trump Jr, invested in Polymarket this year.

Things went a step further this month with the announcement that Trump’s media arm will offer prediction markets through a partnership with Crypto.com. The contracts will be available to users directly through Trump’s Truth Social platform.

Trump is constructing a $300 million ballroom at the White House that was privately funded by 37 donors. The donor list featured some traditional gaming stakeholders but is littered with crypto connections, including:

• The Winklevoss twins
• Coinbase, a crypto exchange platform
• Ripple, a blockchain payments network
• Tether America, a blockchain payments network
• Charles Cascarilla, co-founder of blockchain payments network Paxos

If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em?

An ironic part of the prediction market-crypto discussion is that the regulated industry would likely pursue both verticals if their licences would not be at risk by doing so. The push by some companies to enter the prediction market space is evidence of that, and those that have not have largely blamed regulatory uncertainty.

Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg said this week his company won’t put “any licences” at risk to pursue prediction market deals. He also asserted Caesars “is preparing and would be prepared to go down that path” if clarity comes.

Mike Dreitzer, chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Board, indicated earlier this month he would be open to bringing prediction market technology under state law if able.

There are similar feelings for crypto, which is a popular payment method for younger players. At the ICE Barcelona conference in January, a panel of three international CEOs – Per Widerstrom (Evoke), Gavin Isaacs (Entain) and Fabio Schiavolin (Snaitech) – all lamented that unregulated platforms can utilise crypto while they cannot.

“All three of us would dream to be in the unregulated market just for a day,” Schiavolin joked at the time.

FanDuel founder now leaning into crypto

Those who are venturing into crypto despite the regulatory gruff are seeing the benefits. Nigel Eccles, co-founder and former CEO of FanDuel, has started a new crypto-based iGaming venture called BetHog.

The platform is not licensed or available in the US, but Eccles has embraced crypto as the new frontier, much like he did with daily fantasy sports in the early-to-mid 2010s. DFS is where FanDuel and DraftKings got their start, which at the time was also unregulated. Both have since grown to become the biggest regulated sports betting and iGaming companies in the US.

“We’ve got a very clear signal from the federal government that [crypto] is a technology we should embrace,” Eccles told iGB. “We’ve got really clear operator interest. And so I do feel at a state level, a state regulator level, it is only a matter of time” before the benefits outweigh the risks.

Eccles said security and anti-money laundering risks are the biggest barriers holding crypto back from gaming. But he argued the traceability of crypto makes it more secure than fiat currency, and individualised wallets help protect against fraud and chargebacks.

From a functional standpoint, Eccles contends that operators would save tremendously on money-moving fees, which eat away at margins. This, in turn, could allow for more bonusing to players or other similar benefits.

“Instead of giving 15% of our revenue straight out the door to Visa and MasterCard, we can actually give a chunk of that back to the player and say, ‘Look, you can have a better experience’,” Eccles said.

The policy, rolled out by the government in July, allows for a 5% tax rate on every withdrawal made on any betting wallet, scrapping the previous 20% levy on net winnings. An additional 5% excise duty on deposits also came into effect, which does away with the previous duty of 15%.  

Legal advisors David Sarinke of McKay Advocates and Allan Mzungu of MMS Advocates both believe the new policy could bring about a financial boom for the government.  

Yet, it has also shifted a higher cost burden onto casual bettors and has introduced new behavioral and ethical challenges that gambling regulators must monitor closely.  

“Business Daily [recently] reported government betting tax revenues are projected to nearly double after the rate cuts.” Sarinke tells iGB. “That strongly implies increased betting activity has already started to pick up following the Finance Act 2025 changes.”  

“This change simplifies enforcement because tax is now collected digitally at the wallet gateway rather than at the level of individual bets,” Mzungu explains further.  

“It broadens the tax base, since even people who deposit and later withdraw without [actively] betting are taxed, capturing far more users than before. It will surely ensure continuous cash flow to the Kenyan revenue authorities, as deposits and withdrawals occur daily.” 

‘Wallet-flow’ taxation system  

According to the Parliamentary Budget Office, this “wallet-flow” system could see a doubling of gambling tax revenue. With collection now automatic and seemingly “tamper-proof”, it could mean a projected rise from about KSh5.4 billion to KSh11.4 billion in the 2025-26 financial year. 

“Under the old regime, it was the winners who paid the most – 15% to 20% of their winnings,” explains Mzungu. “Now, all bettors will pay 5% on deposits and withdrawals, regardless of whether they win or lose.” 

Mzungu says Kenya’s new gambling tax policy will stabilise revenue and close loopholes for the government. However, casual bettors will end up paying more as they are taxed even without winning.  

As Sarinke puts it: “This shift has created a cash-flow based tax model rather than a bet-outcome model.” 

The impact on betting behaviour 

SportPesa, Kenya’s largest operator, reported in an August 2025 update that the average wallet balance per active user rose by KSh285 within the first month of the new regulation. This indicated that bettors were now retaining funds for longer periods. 

“In terms of the behavioural impact on bettors, I’d say it is still too early to determine as the regulator has not yet released any official data,” Sarinke notes.  

“But you [expect] the lower effective tax burden [on winnings] would naturally incentivise higher betting frequency and wallet liquidity.” 

Mzungu goes on to clarify the metrics behind Kenya’s new gambling tax system: “Before the reform, a bettor who won KSh10,000 would lose between KSh1,500 and KSh2,000 to the withholding tax on winnings. Now, under the new law, withdrawing that same KSh10,000 attracts only KSh500 in tax, which is a 70% reduction in effective tax liability.” 

The Finance Act 2025 has turned Kenya’s betting ecosystem into a real-time, wallet-based tax network. It simplifies enforcement for government, has boosted revenues and incentivizes continuous betting for experienced punters. 

Mzungu is quietly optimistic in the long term: “If properly enforced and supported by responsible gambling frameworks, the reform could stand as a model for digital tax policy in Africa, balancing fiscal innovation with behavioral insight.”

In July, the gambling regulator in Kenya announced a shakeup of its licensing process, including a significant licensing fee hike.

During a third-quarter earnings call marked by similarly soft Las Vegas results seen by other operators , Hornbuckle cited MGM’s decision this month to withdraw from New York’s casino bidding war as one indicative of the strategy.  A presumed frontrunner for a hotly contested downstate New York casino licence, MGM pulled out in a move unforeseen by many industry insiders. With New York in the rear view mirror, MGM is squarely focused on its new integrated resorts abroad, namely in Japan.

Hornbuckle made the comments on Wednesday evening in a call with Wall Street analysts. The CEO of MGM Resorts tried to remain optimistic after MGM shares fell sharply in the after-hours session amid continued struggles in Las Vegas. Hornbuckle pointed to several factors for the slowdown, including a dip in international visitation, Spirit Airlines’ bankruptcy and customer frustration over traffic from Southern California.

“While we don’t expect the dynamic to be changed overnight, we are proactively working to create initiatives and draw incremental visitation,” Hornbuckle told analysts.

Softness in Vegas drags MGM earnings

The sub-par Nevada figures did not surprise analysts, given similar trends on the Las Vegas Strip over the previous quarter. Las Vegas has seen declines in tourism for the majority of 2025, as macroeconomic uncertainty has led to a tightness in discretionary spending among customers.

In September, Strip visitation declined 8.8% year-over-year to approximately 3.1 million, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority said on Wednesday. It marked the ninth consecutive month that volume on the boulevard declined.

Earlier this week, Caesars expressed concerns on occupancy, which fell about 5% on the quarter to 92%. Caesars CEO Tom Reeg attributed the decline primarily to weakness in city-wide visitation. At the same time, Reeg cited the company’s poor table handle across the Strip for the depressed results. Hold percentage at Caesars’ Vegas properties sank to its lowest in more than three years, he said.

MGM experienced similar challenges throughout The Strip.

MGM Q3 by the numbers

• Across the Strip, MGM generated revenue of $2 billion, down from $2.1 billion in the year-ago quarter. MGM attributed the decline mostly to a room remodelling programme at the MGM Grand that concluded this month. MGM cited the renovations in July as a factor for reduced EBITDA in Las Vegas.
• MGM also attributed the lower third-quarter figures to a decline in food and beverage revenues, lower table hold and lower revenue per available room (RevPAR), a key industry metric. MGM’s table win percentage on The Strip fell from to 22.6%, down from 23.7% in the third quarter of 2024.
• As a result, the segment’s adjusted EBITDAR fell to $601 million, compared with $731 million in the same quarter in 2024.
• MGM also referenced a decrease in business interruption proceeds that amounted to $14 million, along with an an increase in general liability and workers’ compensation insurance expense of $13 million.

A New York state of mind no more

Predictably, analysts opened the question-and-answer portion of Wednesday’s call on MGM’s decision to exit the New York bidding process. Hornbuckle noted that MGM Empire City reached a tentative agreement with the City of Yonkers that would have resulted in a minimum tax contribution of at least $400 million. While MGM did not disclose its proposed tax rates, applicants were required to set a minimum rate of 25% for slot machines and 10% for table games.

Fellow bidder Resorts World NYC established floors of 56% for slots and 30% for table gambling. Hornbuckle indicated that newly issued state guidance on the duration of the licence prompted MGM to reconsider its bid. Based on the proposed tax rate submitted per applicant, the policy gave the New York Gaming Facility Location Board the latitude to award a bidder with a 15-year licence rather than the 30-year version that MGM originally expected.

“While we initially liked the return, it got tighter and tighter so much so that given overall market conditions, we think it’s capital best spent in some other location and some other opportunity.” – MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle

The decision to withdraw its New York contributed to a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $256 million, MGM said. The withdrawal also led to an expense of approximately $93 million in non-cash write-offs related to MGM Empire City, according to the company.

Company moves on to Japan project

MGM is turning to other endeavours, specifically its MGM Osaka resort, projected to open in 2030. The $8.9 billion project served as a hot topic at Expo 2025, a renowned conference that just concluded on the prefecture.

MGM noted that it has entered into a US$300 million denominated credit facility to support its funding of the resort. The facility, which has an interest rate of 2.5%, can be upsized to $450 million, said chief financial officer Jonathan Halkyard. MGM has already received incremental interest, he added.

MGM stock moves after earnings report

For the three-month period ended 30 September, MGM generated net revenue of $4.3 billion, slightly topping forecasts of $4.2 billion. MGM has eclipsed revenue estimates in each of its last four quarters. However, MGM reported earnings per share of $0.24, down considerably from $0.54 in the year-ago quarter. MGM fell short of per-share targets from Zack’s Consensus Estimate of $0.37.

In Wednesday’s after-hours session, MGM fell sharply by 8% to $28.70 per share. MGM pared some of the losses on Thursday, trading near $31 a share. However, MGM is down more than 10% year-to-date.

A popular subject on the call centred on a potential buying opportunity for investors since several MGM executives view its stock as undervalued. Hornbuckle pointed to BetMGM as a lever to unlock value, while Halkyard alluded to conditions in Las Vegas.

“We have a better cost structure than we’ve ever had in Las Vegas,” Hornbuckle said. “With the dynamism in this market, I think that that’s an unlock for the stock.”

Barry Jonas, an analyst with Truist Securities, lowered his price target on MGM slightly to $47 per share. Despite the hit from Las Vegas, MGM’s diversification from its digital, regional and China segments offer “support” to the stock, according to Jonas, who sees room for “material upside” should the Vegas segment inflect.

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon reiterated an “outperform” rating on MGM in part because of its balance-sheet strength. Beynon also lowered his MGM price target on revised estimates, cutting to $45 a share.

Caesars stock was down about 2% at close Tuesday to $22.09 but continued sliding to $19 in trading Wednesday. Its shares are now down more than 40% year-to-date.

Caesars Las Vegas performance has been down for much of 2025 and analysts had several questions for CEO Tom Reeg about the market’s outlook for next quarter and beyond. The city has seen marked tourism declines this year and macroeconomic uncertainty related to inflation, tariffs and now a government shutdown is putting pressure on consumers.

Reeg was largely dismissive of these concerns in Q1 but shifted his tenor for the last two quarters. In both Q2 and Q3, Reeg acknowledged the softness in the market while asserting future optimism. His analogy in July was that a leaking tire had been patched, but his comments on Tuesday indicated that the leak is not fully stemmed.

“We’re now four months into this step-down in leisure demand for Vegas, and while we’re better than we were in July, we’re still not back to where we were on a year-over-year basis,” Reeg told analysts.

Abnormally poor table-game hold in Las Vegas also cost the company about $30 million in Q3, Reeg estimated. He said the third instalment of the Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix, set for 20-22 November, is trending “considerably better” than 2024 but “not as good” as 2023. Las Vegas saw economic impact of $1.5 billion from the race in 2023, compared to $934 million last year.

The possibility of selling Las Vegas assets was not ruled out but Reeg confirmed Caesars is not “actively exploring” it.

Caesars Q3 earnings by the numbers

Las Vegas net revenue fell 10% YoY to $952 million, while net profit slid 40% to $132 million. Revenue and profit for the segment are now down 5% and 28% year-to-date, respectively. Regional revenue of $1.5 billion was a 6% YoY increase but profit fell by more than half (-55%) to $56 million. Year-to-date regional profit for Caesars stands at $65 million, down 43% from last year.

Caesars Digital, which buoyed the company’s performance for several quarters with huge growth, saw a slight revenue uptick ($311 million, +2.5%) but profit slipped to a $21 million loss, as opposed to an $11 million gain the previous year period. The segment’s strong performance for the year overall is perhaps best shown by its year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $151 million, up 55% YoY.

Las Vegas adjusted EBITDA of $379 million in Q3 represented a 19% decrease from last year, while regional was more stable at $506 million (+1.5%).

From a balance sheet perspective, Caesars ended the quarter with total cash and equivalents of $836 million compared to total debt of $11.9 billion. The company redeemed $546 million of debt during the quarter and repurchased $100 million worth of shares.

Reeg encouraged by regional trends

Concerns about regional performance moving forward after a tough Q3 were largely attributed to the push and pull of spending allocations. Reeg said the balance of investing versus cutting back in regional markets “doesn’t happen neatly in 90-day periods” and is in constant flux.

“This stuff happens over a longer period of time, but we are particularly encouraged by the trends that we’re seeing, that suggest that what we’re doing is working and driving more aggregate cash flow, which is the goal of this whole enterprise,” Reeg said.

He acknowledged that often, in any given regional market, Caesars is likely spending less than its competitors. The company has emerged as perhaps the leader in cost-cutting since the Covid pandemic.

In responses to analysts’ questions on the topic, Reeg admitted “that gap, in hindsight, might’ve gotten too wide”, but also seemed to push back at other times on the idea that the company is not spending enough.

“If you look at the regional capital investment across us and our peers, we’ve outpaced everybody in the last five years,” he said. “Let’s harvest those investments, give people a reason to come and see [regional properties]”.

Digital not center of attention in Caesars Q3 earnings

Caesars Digital, which had been the focal point of recent calls, was largely quiet this time around. Analysts have long asked the company whether it would consider spinning off its high-growth digital arm. Caesars has never denied the possibility but remained steadfast on reaching its goal of $500 million in annual EBITDA for the business by 2026.

Both Reeg and digital president Eric Hession noted multiple headwinds that dragged on the sector’s Q3 performance. One was the sale of the World Series of Poker franchise, which closed last October, meaning the YoY comparisons have now phased out. Another was increased gaming tax burdens in multiple states. In the last year, rates have gone up in several key markets, including Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland and Louisiana.

The third, and perhaps least controllable, aspect was player-friendly sports outcomes in September. Particularly during football season, these outcomes have become a central topic for bookmakers in recent years. While overall player focus has shifted to parlays and other volatile bets with higher hold, particularly adverse game results can still drag on performance.

“With game outcomes, obviously we had a third quarter that wasn’t great,” Reeg said. “We’re four of 13 weekends into the fourth quarter, those outcomes have not gotten substantially better … so that will have an impact on where the fourth quarter comes in.”

Prediction markets unavoidable but Caesars licences at risk

No gaming earnings call in 2025 would be complete without mention of prediction markets. Federally licensed financial exchanges such as Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com have evolved to offer contracts on sporting events. Their meteoric growth has started to have real impacts on commercial bookmaking; to wit, Caesars was removed from the S&P 500 stock index in September, displaced by Robinhood.

Caesars is perhaps in a tougher spot than others when it comes to navigating prediction markets. Nevada casinos, between Las Vegas and its home base in Reno, are a huge piece of the company’s operations.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board recently warned its licensees that offering sports prediction markets either in the state or elsewhere could jeopardise their suitability. That risk would seem too big to stomach, even as others like FanDuel and DraftKings – who are absent from mobile wagering in Nevada – are making splashy deals. BetMGM, which is connected to fellow Nevada licencee MGM Resorts, faces a similar conundrum.

“As we’ve said before, we can’t be out in the lead on this one,” Hession told analysts Tuesday. “We’re going to monitor it, make sure we’re not left behind if there’s regulatory clarity…Our best approach at this point is to monitor it, put our plans in place, make sure we’re adequately resourced and be ready to move if there’s a legalisation or definition in either direction.”

Reeg followed with the assertion that Caesars “will not put any” licences at risk for prediction markets. But if there is “a path that develops” to participate, he said Caesars is “preparing and would be prepared to go down that path”.

During the committee session MPs heard from two panels of experts; the first included Jung who is acting interim associate director for economic policy and AI for the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). 

The IPPR in August advised the government to increase remote gaming duty from 21% to 50%, and machine games duty from 20% to 50% of operator profit, to raise an additional £3 billion ($4 billion) in tax revenue per year. 

“Gaming machines and remote betting are fairly sort of sticky. You can raise the tax more and raise more money, but it also means not everyone will be deterred by higher rates or poorer odds,” he told the committee.  

“And therefore, on its own, I would argue it’s not a sufficient policy to address problem gambling.”  

Jung’s points were made in response to comments from ex-industry stalwart and co-founder of Paddy Power Stewart Kenny. He told the committee that “higher-risk” gambling offerings should be taxed more “to disincentivise bookmakers from sucking [players] from sportsbook into the online casino”.  

Netherlands not a fair example in black market tax hike argument 

Responding to a question on the impact of gambling tax hikes on the black markets, Jung said the Netherlands was not a viable example for gambling tax increases contributing to black market growth.  

The market increased its gambling tax in January as part of a staggered hike and, in August, reports suggested the rise would leave a €200 million black hole in the budget as less tax revenue was being made overall in the market.  

In its most recent report on market activity, the market regulator (KSA) said that this year, for the first time, black market spending had outpaced regulated gambling spending.  

“That is an example that [the industry] will use, but it’s the only example they will use,” Jung said. “In the Netherlands, not only did they introduce tax, they did a whole load of other regulatory changes as well, which we are not proposing.” 

Jung also pointed to very complex legal processes which would hinder black market enforcement in the market.  

“Fortunately, we don’t have that in this country. We are much better and we’re seen as world leaders when it comes to tackling this sort of black-market site,” he added.  

He also used Estonia as an example to show there “is no such correlation between the level of tax and the level of the black market”.  

“Estonia, lower tax, lower share of legal market. One of the problems we have in this area is that it’s very hard to measure, because you’re trying to measure something that’s a criminal activity, so notoriously, it’s always hard to measure,” Jung added.  

Retail connected to online businesses  

In a second panel session, Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) CEO Grainne Hurst and BGC tax committee chair Stephen Hodgson answered the panel’s questions on how a remote gambling tax hike would impact retail operations.  

In recent weeks several operators in the UK have warned they would close high-street betting shops in response to a potential tax hike in the UK.  

Hurst said companies operate as a single profit-and-loss model and therefore any impact to the online sector through increase remote gaming duty would inevitably impact their retail businesses.  

Operators would likely have to pull back investment from other parts of their business, she said.  

Elvis Lourenço, a Brazilian iGaming expert and managing partner at EX7 Partners warns doubling the current gambling tax rate could have catastrophic consequences for the sector.

However, he suggests there may be room to negotiate the newly proposed 24% rate. He believes with intervention from the sector the rate could edge closer to 18%.

The tax 18% rate was previously proposed in Brazil’s initial sports betting bill which was passed into legislation in December 2023. However it was later brought down to 12% of operator GGR.

“The first bill that they proposed back in the day was 18%,” Lourenço tells iGB. “We all know that.

“So if you look for the best worst scenario, it is 15% at least, 18% maximum because that was on the first agenda.

“But 24% is insane. It’s insane and it will collapse the market.”

Where does Brazil’s gambling tax rate stand today?

Discussions over taxation on gambling in Brazil continue to plague the market, with the government determined to increase the rate amid concerns over the social and financial impacts of betting on the population since regulation launched on 1 January.

A provisional measure to increase the rate from 12% to 18% failed to pass through Parliament earlier this month, as did plans to introduce retrospective taxes for pre-regulation gambling activities.

Just a day after the provisional measure was withdrawn, a new bill (PL 5,076/2025) was presented by Lindbergh Farias, leader of the Workers’ Party in Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies, which seeks to double the tax rate to 24% of GGR.

PL 5,076/2025 received urgent status last week and, while it is still unclear when exactly the Chamber of Deputies president Hugo Motta will put the bill to a vote, the industry is once again left nervously awaiting developments.

Gambling being used for political motivations

The Brazil government seems dead set on increasing the tax burden on gambling, with a policy of introducing new taxes on the three Bs – billionaires, banks and betting.

With an election coming up next year, Lourenço suggests President Lula’s government is trying to appease the significant conservative section of the population by increasing taxes on betting operators.

This, according to Lourenço, has been expedited by the humiliation for the government of its failed provisional measure to increase the rate from 12% to 18%, with the gambling sector being used as a “currency of trade” by politicians.

“That’s the main reason that they struck back so fast, because it was embarrassing for them,” Lourenço explains.

“This becomes an election agenda, because this is good for the audience and the public to get votes because we are a conservative country in some ways. So, to put this on their agenda, ‘we increase the taxes of the billionaires, of the gambling world’, it is good for the speech of the actual government.”

Gambling industry the target

Brazil’s regulated sector has endured a mixed start, with hesitant optimism weighed down by lingering concerns over tax rises and new ad restrictions.

Many are frustrated by the threat of tightening regulations so early into the regulated market. Lourenço argues the fact that the licensed sector is still so new is in fact the reason it’s being targeted for tax increases.

“They [the Brazil government] need to collect [taxes] with some industry, and unfortunately we are the industry at target,” Lourenço says. “If they choose retail, commodities, banking, the lobby is too strong.

“So unfortunately, we are the target because we are new, with new regulation, and the conservative country says, ‘they can pay more’.”

Unfair comparisons to other markets

Lourenço also highlights the comparisons some are making to other jurisdictions, with such comparisons ignoring the other taxes that operators in Brazil are mandated to pay.

At present, in addition to a 12% tax on GGR, operators are subject to a 9.25% PIS/Cofins levy and municipal taxes that can reach up to 5%.

They are also taxed on approximately 34% of their profits, comprising 25% corporate income tax and a 9% social contribution tax.

Brazil is also transitioning to a new tax system, with PIS/Cofins being replaced with a dual tax system that Lourenço predicts could raise the total burden on operators to an excess of 50%, if further GGR-based taxes are also added.

Government targeting the wrong side of legality

Another point of frustration for Lourenço and much of the licensed sector is the government’s emphasis on targeting legal operators, rather than their black market alternatives.

Somestakeholders have estimated over half of the Brazilian gambling market’s revenue is generated by the black market, claiming the government’s focus on restricting licensed operators is hugely benefitting operators that act outside of regulation.

With the government seemingly desperate to generate more tax revenue from gambling, Lourenço suggests it should instead focus on bringing more betting onshore rather than simply raising the burden on licensed operators.

If the government can effectively reduce the black market, Lourenço says operators would be more inclined to reluctantly accept lesser tax increases.

“They are targeting to increase the taxes but they are not targeting to combat illegal gambling,” Lourenço adds. “So you have more than 50% in the black market and they’re doing nothing to get this money that is circling through.

“Guys, let’s try to get some money from here [illegal gambling]. If we can lower 50% to 30%, well it’s done.

“And the distribution of the money is too low for the security, for the enforcement. So we know that most of the money must go to health and to health programmes in Brazil and education as well. But you need to fight against the illegal market and you need to get the enforcement strong. But, it’s not happening.”

In a short trading update released on Monday it said proceeds from Term Loan B will be used to fund the acquisition and associated fees and expenses. Allwyn agreed to acquire the stake in September, in a deal marking its entrance into US daily fantasy sports market.

Should the acquisition proceed as expected, Allwyn will take a 62.3% majority holding in the business, paying an initial cash consideration of $1.6 billion for the stake.

This implies an enterprise value of $2.5 billion for PrizePicks. However, should it hit certain performance metrics over the next three years, this could increase to $4.15 billion.

PrizePicks’ current CEO Mike Ybarra and the existing leadership team will continue to run the brand as a standalone within Allwyn. They will also retain the majority of their ownership interest in the business.

Subject to certain closing conditions, the deal will complete in the first quarter of next year.

Allwyn talks up ‘positive’ Q3 performance

Meanwhile, Allwyn has issued a short trading update on its performance in Q3, ahead of the group publishing results the quarter on 30 October.

Allwyn noted a somewhat challenging September for its sports betting operations. It said its business was affected by “exceptionally” customer-friendly sports results during the month, with this impacting sports betting margins.

However, it said this was an industry-wide phenomenon and not limited to its business. The group also played down any long-term impact, saying variation in sports margins due to customer or operator-friendly sports results “average out over time”.

On this, it noted its diversification, particularly with lottery and other verticals, also reduced the impact of these resultd. As such, it said other underlying trends remain “positive”.

Acquisitions aplenty for Allwyn

The PrizePicks acquisition is one of just major developments announced by Allwyn in recent months. In October, Allwyn International and OPAP agreed to merge and create a lottery and gaming business worth an estimated €16 billion. The deal also includes plans to list on another global international exchange such as London or New York.

In addition, in July, Allwyn International announced the sale of its land-based casino assets in Germany and Australia. It also acquired the remaining minority stake in Greece- and Cyprus-facing online operator Stoiximan.

The group also recently established the new Allwyn Digital division. Headed by ex-Betfred US CEO Kresimir Spajic, the business aims to evolve Allwyn digitally, providing bettors with engaging experiences.

Group revenue for the three months to 30 September reached £435.4 million ($580.7 million), Evoke said in a trading update on Tuesday. This surpassed the £416.6 million posted in Q3 last year.

The group noted that it was the fifth consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth for the business, with revenue increases across all three of its core operating divisions. In contrast, only international revenue grew during the first six months of the year.

“During Q3 we continued to execute against our strategy which is transforming our long-term competitive capabilities and building a more efficient and profitable business,” Evoke CEO Per Widerström said.

Evoke back in black in the UK

Its UK and Ireland online business remained the primary source of revenue during the quarter, generating £163.3 million in Q3. Revenue was up 1% on the previous year.

UK online revenue was driven by higher betting revenue, which increased by 8% year-on-year to £50.7 million, helped by weaker prior-year win margins. Meanwhile gaming reported a 2% decline in revenue to £112.6 million.

Evoke said 888’s performance “continued to be a drag on growth” as it reduced marketing spend while targeting higher marketing returns.

UK retail revenue was also up 6% year-on-year to £121.7 million. Growth was consistent across betting and gaming.

The operator said retail sports betting growth was helped by weaker prior year win margins. Meanwhile, gaming revenue continued to increase during Q3 following the rollout of new gaming cabinets earlier in 2025.

“With retail continuing the improving trend from Q2, all three divisions were in growth during the quarter,” Widerström said. “Whilst our refined approach to UK online marketing to drive improved profitability slightly held back our top-line performance, we are pleased to have recorded our fifth consecutive quarter of profitable growth.”

International love for Evoke

However, as was the case in H1, the international segment experienced the most growth across the group, with revenue up 8% to £150.4 million. Growth was offset by a 26% drop in betting revenue.

Gaming revenue jumped 13% to £137 million, accounting for 91% of total revenue for the international segment.

Digging into the international business’ numbers, Evoke noted double-digit growth in Italy, Denmark and Romania. In Denmark, it completed migration to the in-house platform and subsequent product upgrades,, while it made further gains in Italy, helped by a focus on localised product features on 888.

As for Romania, Evoke completed the migration of 888 Romania onto the localised Winner.ro platform. While there was an initial slowdown in 888 experienced during the migration, the group said the platform is “unlocking significant product improvements and localisation” for customers.

While these developments were positive for the international business, there were some declines. Evoke referenced a slowdown in Spain and non-core markets, with these preventing further growth for the segment.

Evoke reiterates 5-9% annual growth target

In terms of Evoke’s performance in the year-to-date, group revenue for the first nine months of 2025 hit £1.32 billion. This was 3% more than the £1.28 billion reported at the same point in 2024.

UK and Ireland online revenue for the period remained flat at £499.5 million, with UK retail revenue also holding steady at £373.9 million. However, following the same trend seen in recent quarter, it was the international business that drove growth, with revenue up 11% to £449.9 million.

Looking to the remainder of 2025 and full-year expectations, Evoke reiterated its guidance of posting an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 20%. This, it said, gave it confidence to report adjusted EBITDA “ahead of current market expectations”.

Further ahead, Evoke also reiterated certain medium-term financial targets. These included between 5% and 9% annual revenue growth and approximately 1% of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion per year by the end of 2027.

“We have clear plans in place to support an improvement in revenue during Q4 through continued acceleration in product enhancements, including retail sports and our recently launched new William Hill Vegas app,” Widerström said. “We are also making ongoing improvements to our customer lifecycle management capabilities.

“Alongside this, the improvements we have made to the operating model and efficiencies in our cost base mean we remain confident of achieving our implied adjusted EBITDA guidance, which would outperform market expectations.

“We continue to execute our turnaround with vigour and are making good progress against our plans to position evoke for long-term success and significant value creation.”

No further comment on UK tax changes

While the trading update offered some insight into the latest goings-on at Evoke, there was no reference to one of the main issues engulfing the UK market at present: a mooted rise in gambling tax.

The government is expected to set out new gambling tax plans during the upcoming budget on 26 November. Reports suggest several approaches are being considered, with all seeing some sort of increase.

Earlier in October, a Sunday Times report said Evoke is considering closing up to 15% of its William Hill shops across the UK in response to the proposed tax hike. Several sources at Evoke were said to have confirmed closures could take place if taxes rise.

One source said 120 shops could shut, while another suggested as many as 200 could close. This could lead to up to 1,500 job losses across the William Hill network.

“As part of our ongoing planning, we are assessing the potential impact of different overall tax scenarios on our UK operations,” an Evoke spokesperson said at the time. “This includes the difficult but necessary consideration for shop closures.”

Another recent development out of Evoke was confirmation of Mark Summerfield as its new non-executive chairman. He replaced Lord Jonathan Mendelsohn, who stepped down mid-way through October.

Lord Mendelsohn joined Evoke’s board in September 2020 and was appointed non-executive chair in March 2021. He also had a spell as interim executive chair from January to October of 2023.

At stake is whether Estonia – already one of the world’s most digitised economies – can convert its technological advantage and forward-thinking tax policies into a credible and sustainable hub for online gaming. 

“Estonia is indeed moving toward positioning itself as a more attractive and competitive jurisdiction for gambling operators,” says Margus Reiland, partner and head of regulation, gambling and tax at Tallinn-based Law Firm Widen. 

Reiland explains that Estonia’s new gambling bill currently being debated in Parliament represents the most significant update to Estonia’s gambling framework in more than 15 years.  

New measures being considered

Among its key measures are: 

• Updated definitions of remote and additional gambling. 

• Broader scope for licensed operators to offer support services such as IT and accounting within the same group. 

• Mandatory audits of annual financial reports. 

• Clearer anti-money laundering data requirements for licence applications. 

• The Tax and Customs Board becoming the single point of contact for licences. 

• Tighter rules on gambling venues located near youth facilities. 

• Tenfold increases in fines and penalties. 

• Perhaps most importantly, a reduction in the remote gambling tax rate. 

According to the bill’s explanatory memorandum, its aim is to “modernise rules that have remained largely unchanged for over 15 years, strengthen supervision and improve the reliability and transparency of the gambling sector”. 

“In other words,” Reiland adds, “the reforms aim to encourage licensed operators to base their operations in Estonia instead of elsewhere in the world.”  

The timeline for reforms remains uncertain but Reiland says the bill is currently under parliamentary discussion and has not yet been adopted. “That being said, if the government coalition remains stable and continues to support the proposal, it is likely that the amendments will eventually pass,” he adds.  

Estonia new gambling bill’s tax reform 

One of the headline changes is the proposed lowering of Estonia’s gambling tax. For Reiland, this sends a clear strategic signal. The proposed bill by MPs from the Eesti 200 and the Reform Party would gradually reduce the remote gambling tax rate by 0.5 percentage points per year, aiming to reach 4% by around 2029.  

“From a regulatory standpoint, the intent appears to be to strengthen Estonia’s position in the gambling sector,” Reiland says. “And that intent is without a doubt positive.” 

Operators have largely welcomed the move, viewing it as recognition that “their long-standing concerns and challenges are being acknowledged by policymakers,” says Reiland. Although he also points out that the wider political debate “has been more divided”.  

The main question seems to be whether lowering the gambling tax truly benefits the wider economy or primarily favours the operators. 

The most prominent opponents are members of the centre-left opposition party Keskerakond The underlining sentiment is that the proposed gambling regulation is a lobby project, with no real positive effect. Industry insiders, however, are cheering the direction of travel.  

In an October blog post, Tim Heath, founder of crypto-driven gaming giant Yolo Group, praised Estonia’s new gambling bill, noting: “Only a year ago, the plan was to raise taxes. Proposing a different course took serious courage, and it shows the Estonian government understands how our industry really works.” 

Yolo has been headquartered in Estonia for years. Lower tax friction, Heath argued, would attract more operators, which in turn could bring “more investment, more jobs and, ultimately, more tax revenue. By going down this path, Estonia is choosing to grow its share of the pie rather than fight over the crumbs.” 

Digital credibility as a competitive edge 

Reiland believes Estonia’s strengths go beyond gambling taxation. “Obtaining and maintaining a licence in Estonia is already relatively fast, cost-efficient and administratively straightforward,” he explains. 

On top of that, “Estonia has strong IT infrastructure, robust cyber security standards and a well-developed anti-money-laundering framework. This raises the regulatory credibility to a high level.” 

In his view: “Estonia has always been a solid and effective choice for getting a licence – it just hasn’t received the same level of international attention as some other jurisdictions.” That could soon change. Estonia’s X-Road data-exchange system – a secure interoperability platform connecting public and private databases – underpins much of the nation’s digital governance and has become a unique asset for regulators. 

“It’s not just used in gambling supervision,” Reiland notes. “It’s also in data exchange across government agencies, health service providers and many private sector stakeholders. I wouldn’t go as far as to say it is a branding exercise but a widely used system that does actually support regulatory efficiency.” 

Yolo Group’s Heath agrees that this technological backbone gives Estonia an advantage few others can match. The market’s use of crypto as a payment method for gambling is a huge benefit to the group. “Estonia’s embrace of crypto in this new regulation helps cement its reputation as the world’s most digital country,” he wrote. “It encourages operator transparency and turns it into a national advantage.” 

Crypto and compliance in the EU  

Unlike many European jurisdictions tightening their stance on digital assets, Estonia is keeping cryptocurrency as an approved payment method – albeit under strict AML and KYC rules. 

“The Estonian approach allows crypto as a payment method for Estonian licensed operators,” Reiland explains. But he cautions that since MiCA – the European Union’s comprehensive legal framework for crypto-assets, designed to bring consistency, consumer protection and financial stability to the crypto sector – it is still a novel regulation and national practices differ.  

“It should be analysed under other target market jurisdictions whether all necessary requirements have been met,” says Reiland. In practice, he says, “the key question isn’t whether to use crypto but whether the operators know how to apply the highest standards of AML, KYC, enhanced due diligence etc under self-regulation principles”. 

In his blog post Heath echoed this pragmatism, arguing that Estonia’s openness “aligns with MiCA and EU best practice”. The integration of blockchain analytics tools such as Chainalysis, he suggests, allows for “real-time tracing and risk-scoring of crypto transactions,” thus enhancing transparency rather than undermining it. 

Crypto casinos, which are largely unlicensed or illegal across most European markets, are gaining rapid popularity among younger players. Last month Yolo announced it would be leaning entirely into regulated markets, and in another blog post Heath said he believed crypto was becoming “mainstream”.

Predictability and digital expertise 

Some in the industry remain cautious of Estonia’s new gambling bill and point to last year’s short-lived proposal to raise gambling taxes as a sign of political volatility. But Reiland dismisses this concern. 

“Estonia has had a very stable regulatory framework for a long time,” he insists. “The only real changes have come in the past couple of years, largely because different interests were competing over how to modernise the system. Right now if the bill is passed, the expectation is that the framework will remain generally stable for many years and the likelihood of a reversed course is very low in my eyes.” 

That sense of predictability – combined with Estonia’s digital expertise – could be decisive in drawing operators who are increasingly weary of the administrative burdens in older licensing hubs. The draft bill also introduces modest reforms to responsible-gambling measures, including expansion of the Estonia´s self-exclusion register, HAMPI. 

“There were different ideas floating on the self-exclusion list amendments but right now the latest parliamentary bill seems to be quite conservative,” Reiland notes. “It is my view still that probably the HAMPI regulation will be overhauled pretty soon since the existing system has been in place for quite some time.” 

Heath, meanwhile, highlighted this as one of the most important improvements, arguing that the reforms “lay the foundation for a safer, fairer environment – one where players can simply enjoy the thrill of the game, confident that they’re spinning in a trusted, regulated space”. 

Estonia’s new gambling bill a blueprint for Europe? 

If Estonia succeeds, could its model influence EU-wide discussions on digital gambling regulation? Reiland is cautiously optimistic. “Hopefully, if Estonia’s system proves effective, it could serve as a model for EU discussions rather than an outlier,” he says.  

“The underlying logic is not to prohibit or overregulate, but to use IT systems and secure information exchange to support legitimate business while maintaining continuous oversight.” 

Marriage of innovation and integrity could pay off 

For now, Estonia’s new gambling bill’s parliamentary journey continues. “It might be expected that after this bill has been adopted, the Ministry of Finance might also present a bill covering the remaining issues,” Reiland says – mentioning future clarification on crypto and the HAMPI system as likely priorities. “No seismic changes are to be expected.” 

As Heath of Yolo Group put it: “What Estonia is proposing right now could become a blueprint for how small, smart countries lead global industries – by marrying innovation with integrity.” And with legal experts like Reiland pointing to stability, efficiency and credibility as the cornerstones of the new framework, Estonia’s gamble on innovation might just pay off. 

These claims were made in a new report commissioned by the BGC and carried out by consultancy EY-Parthenon. Titled ‘Impacts of changes to betting and gaming regulation’, it considered several of the proposals submitted for an amended gambling tax.

The government is expected to set out new gambling tax plans during its upcoming budget on 26 November. Several approaches have been mooted but the government is yet to confirm which approach it will take.

The report considers four proposals, covering the current three core gambling tax rates in the UK. These comprise general betting duty (GBD), currently at 15% of net stake receipts, remote gambling duty (RGD) of 21% of profit and machines gaming duty (MGD) at 20% of profit.

It also took into consideration the impact of ‘elasticity’ when analysing each approach to new tax rules. Elasticity measures the responsiveness of one economic variable to a change in another.

This is based on estimates of ‘central’ price elasticity of demand, produced in 2014 by Frontier Economics for HMRC, and ‘higher’ elasticity, estimated by EY to account for a greater possible impact.

Aligning rates could cost almost 5,000 jobs

In the first instance, the report looked at how aligning rates would impact the industry. This approach would see betting duty rates rise to 21%, remote duty remain at 21% and machine duty stay at 20%.

Based on central elasticity, this measure would raise an additional £250 million in betting duty but also lead to a £400 million increase in black market stakes. As such, the government would forgo £10 million in duties. In addition, 800 direct jobs could be lost and 2,000 indirect jobs.

However, on a higher elasticity basis, this approach could favour the black market more heavily. Betting duty would rise £180 million, whereas black market stakes could increase by £1.2 billion. This could lead to a £420 million drop in gross value added (GVA), the measurement used to estimate the size of the industry and its supply chain, and 4,700 direct and indirect job losses.

SMF tax proposal could pump £8.1 million into black market

Secondly, the BGC’s report considered a proposal made by the Social Market Foundation (SMF). In July, the SMF suggested raising RGD from 21% to 50%, GBD to 25% – but cutting horse racing bets to 5% – and keeping MGD level at 20%.

In a best, central-based elasticity scenario, an additional £1 billion would be drawn from the industry in tax in this scenario. However, the report said black market stakes would rocket $5.8 billion and cut regulated industry GVA by £2.2 billion. In addition, some 22,000 jobs could be lost as a result of the changes.

As for higher impact, research suggested tax revenue would rise, but only by £470 million. This would be due to more players turning to the black market, with illegal stakes forecasted to rise £8.1 billion. GVA would drop by £2.5 billion and more than 30,00 jobs would be lost.

IPPR approach puts 40,000 jobs at risk

The third proposal addressed was from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a progressive think tank. It suggested increasing all three rates: GBD from 15% to 25%, RGD from 21% to 50% and MGD from 20% to 50%.

Should this be the case, central elasticity basis suggests a £1.8 billion increase in tax, given that all three rates would rise. However, black market stakes are anticipated to rise £6 billion, wiping $2.5 billion off industry GVA. On top of this, the report said 29,100 jobs would be cut from the sector.

However, if there were a stronger, higher response from consumers, the impact of changes would worsen. Tax revenue would rise £1.1 billion but black market stakes would also jump £8.4 billion, leading to £290 million in foregone duty.

As such industry GVA would slump £3.1 billion, while some 40,000 jobs could be lost. This would include 14,100 direct jobs and 26,000 indirect positions.

Fixed increases would still hit jobs

Finally, the report looked at whether a fixed increase should be applied to each rate. In this case, referred to as a ‘ready reckoner’, GBD, RGD and MGD would all increase by 5%.

Based on central elasticity, excise revenue would be higher across all three rates, but other tax revenue would decline. GVA would be lower across each segment, while hundreds of jobs would be lost in the process. RGD would likely be hardest hit, losing an estimated £359 million in GVA and approximately 3,700 jobs.

In terms of high elasticity, again excise tax revenue would increase in each area, but other tax revenue would decline, with an estimated £210 million to be lost in total. GVA as a whole would drop £860 million, while up to 10,000 jobs would go.

Again, RGD would see the worst impact, losing £420 million in GVA and almost 5,000 jobs.

Tax rises a ’threat’ to UK economy

Commenting on the report, BGC CEO Grainne Hurst said it was clear further tax rises would be a “direct threat” to UK jobs and economic growth. She urged the government to tread carefully before committing to higher tax.

Any increases would be in addition to the new statutory levy, which came into effect on 6 April this year.

“Figures speak for themselves,” Hurst said. “Tens of thousands of jobs lost, billions diverted to the black market and a possible £3 billion hit to the economy.

“Tax raids like those proposed would mean fewer betting shops, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs and a huge boost to the growing, unsafe gambling black market, while not raising anywhere near the tax claimed.”

With this, Hurst called for “balanced’ regulations and a “stable” tax regime to help support a growing, regulated sector.

“These proposals would achieve the absolute opposite of that and undermine the very consumer protections that keep people safe by pushing customers towards the unregulated black market, where there are no safeguards, no tax receipts, no jobs and no support for the sports we all love,” Hurst said.

“Britain’s betting and gaming sector is a world leader – employing thousands, paying billions in tax, and investing in British sport. The choice is clear: back a successful, sustainable, regulated British industry – or risk losing jobs, investment and growth.”

High street bookmakers echo tax concerns

The report comes after several major operators warned they could close retail locations if the mooted tax rises go ahead.

A Sunday Times report suggested William Hill shop closures could take place if taxes rise. The sources, who were not named, said these closures could range between 120 and 200 – up to 15% of the entire William Hill UK estate.

Flutter Entertainment also set out plans to close 57 Paddy Power betting shops across the UK and Ireland. This, it said, was amid increasing cost pressures with almost 250 staff facing redundancy.

Stella David, CEO of Entain, has also said UK retail shops could close to help save on costs.

US President Donald Trump is undertaking a massive construction project at the White House, demolishing the East Wing to clear the way for a new $300 million ballroom. The administration previously said the funding would come from private donors rather than public funds.

On Thursday, the White House made public a list of 37 donors. The Seminole-owned operator Hard Rock International and the Adelson Family Foundation of late Las Vegas Sands founder Sheldon Adelson were among those with direct ties to gaming.

Neither Hard Rock or the Seminole Tribe, nor the foundation responded to a request for comment on the donations. The administration did not disclose donation amounts.

Hard Rock was the only gambling company featured on the list. Tech, defense and oil firms like Meta, Lockheed Martin and Booz Allen made up most of the donors.

Hard Rock at work in multiple states

Florida-based Hard Rock is in the middle of multiple expansion projects, including a Las Vegas Strip resort and a potential $8 billion integrated resort project next to Citi Field stadium in Queens.

Hard Rock is one of three finalists for three available downstate licences in New York. It is partnered with billionaire New York Mets owner Steve Cohen for the project, dubbed Metropolitan Park. State regulators have until year’s end to decide whether the company will be chosen for one of the coveted licences.

The Adelson donation is not surprising given the family’s longstanding history of supporting Republican causes, including Trump’s campaigns. However, Sands has had increasingly few business dealings in the US after Adelson’s death in 2021. It withdrew casino proposals in both New York and Texas this year, and also shut down its digital gaming arm to focus solely on its Singapore and Macau resorts.

Previous connections between Hard Rock, Trump

Hard Rock’s donation could be notable for two reasons. Broadly speaking, the second Trump administration has been somewhat at odds with Indian Country, and Hard Rock is among the biggest tribal-owned companies in the US. Multiple tribal casino developments have been stymied since Trump took office and his policies have affected several facets of life for tribal members.

The Indian Gaming Association, a national lobbying group for tribal gaming, has been critical of Trump’s second term. IGA did not respond for a request for comment on the donation.

Both Hard Rock and longtime CEO Jim Allen have also had direct dealings with Trump in previous years. Allen previously served as vice president of operations for the Trump Organization, the president’s business conglomerate.

The company purchased the former Trump Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City in 2017 for $50 million. That property is now Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Atlantic City. When the purchase was announced, Allen seemed eager to remove Trump’s legacy from the building.

“It’s everywhere,” Allen told the Associated Press at the time, referencing Trump’s influence on the property. “The amount of money we’re going to have to spend to remove all those minarets and all that purple. Jesus! What were we thinking?”

Two sides at odds over Florida law?

Trump was connected to Hard Rock indirectly earlier this year because of a signature-gathering law passed in Florida (HB 1205). In that case, the two sides are essentially at odds; the law places several restrictions on how petitions and signatures can be circulated and by whom.

Florida state law requires any gambling expansion to come via constitutional amendment, which must be approved through a voter referendum with a 60% approval threshold. This is made more difficult by the bill’s restrictions, which ostensibly strengthens the Seminoles’ position.

The tribe has a statewide monopoly on Class III gaming, which includes both casino gaming and online sports betting. Hard Rock launched Florida’s only available OSB platform, Hard Rock Bet, in late 2023 after a lengthy legal battle that went to the Supreme Court. It operates a total of six casinos in the state.

Trump has never directly signalled interest in pursuing gaming ventures in Florida, but there have been indirect allusions. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush in 2015 accused Trump of trying to bribe his way to a state gaming licence in the 1990s.

“Totally false,” Trump said in response. “I promise if I wanted it, I would have gotten it.”

Additionally, the president owns a golf course in the state, in Doral. Trump’s middle son, Eric, told the Washington Post in 2021 that the location is “unmatched from a gaming perspective”. The site is just more than 15 miles from Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Hollywood.

The gambling tech giant first mooted the move in February and then in August, when it said the switch would be completed before the end of November.

Light & Wonder provided notice to the Nasdaq to delist its common stock in October, while its Form 25 (with respect to common stock with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)) will be submitted on 3 November.

Nasdaq is expected to suspend trading in common stock once trading closes on 12 November, then Light & Wonder’s delisting would become effective the following day.

Its share price on the Nasdaq was down 0.68% at $75.85 at the close of play on 23 October, the day of the delisting announcement.

Strategic focus for Light & Wonder

When confirming the news earlier in the year, Light & Wonder said the switch to ASX fit in with the group’s wider “strategic focus”. It stopped short of saying when exactly it would begin trading on the ASX.

“Consistent with our previous announcements, our decision to transition to a sole primary listing on the ASX reflects our strategic focus on aligning our capital markets presence with our long-term growth plans and shareholder base,” the company said in its Friday update.

“We are seeking to consolidate trading liquidity onto the ASX, a deep and liquid market that has a robust understanding of the gaming sector.”

Light & Wonder set for ASX top 50

The group has said transitioning to the ASX will help to consolidate liquidity in a market that has deep understanding of gaming. It added that the pivot could unlock greater shareholder value and align with its wider growth plans.

Since launching its secondary ASX listing in May 2023, equity traded on the exchange has accounted for approximately 37% of the company’s total equity.

In an update during its Q2 2025 results presentation, the group said sit market cap could go from circa AU$4.5 billion to AU$12.2 billion. It is also expected to ascend from circa #90 in the ASX 100 into the ASX 50 and into the index.

More light could be shed on the switch when Light & Wonder publishes its Q3 results on 5 November.

On Friday, Betsson announced its Q3 results for the period ending 30 September. Group revenue was up 5.6% to €295.8 million ($343.5 million), while EBITDA (€82.5 million) and operating income (€66.9 million) also increased by 2.7% and 3.7% respectively.

Q3 revenue from locally regulated markets shot up by 16% in Q3, accounting for 64% of Betsson’s total revenue, compared to 58% last year.

Overall growth was powered by performance in Western Europe, particularly Italy which achieved all-time high revenue across the quarter.

This was largely driven by growth in Betsson’s online casino product in Italy, which recorded trecord revenue for the period. The group did not break down its numbers by specific market.

Revenue for the whole of Western Europe’s in Q3 stood at €56.9 million, accounting for 19% of Betsson’s total group revenue for the quarter, up from 16% in Q3 2024. Broken down by vertical, iGaming revenue in the region came in at €45.7 million during the period, while sportsbook was €11.1 milion.

Betsson balance sheet supporting continued investment

In the press release announcing the results, Betsson CEO Pontus Lindwall said Betsson was continuing to “drive the digitalisation” of the global gaming market, with a geographically diversified offering protecting the company from potential headwinds in some markets.

“We have a proven, successful product portfolio consisting of both casino and sports betting, as well as a well-diversified mix of revenues from different geographical regions, which lowers the risks of periodically weaker developments in individual products or markets,” Lindwall said.

“I look forward with confidence to the end of the year and ahead to 2026 with the upcoming World Cup in football. Our strong balance sheet enables continued investments in product development and strengthened market positions to support continued stable profit growth and dividends to our shareholders.”

Record LatAm casino revenue for Betsson in Q3

A key area of focus for Betsson this year has been the LatAm region, as it launched in both Brazil and Paraguay in 2025, while also maintaining a presence in Colombia and Peru.

It’s proving a fruitful market, too, with LatAm revenue growing 10.2% year-on-year in Q3.

Casino revenue in the region was at record levels, increasing to €56.6 million from the €46.1 million generated in the same quarter last year.

This offset a year-on-year decline in sportsbook revenue from €23.1 million to €19.8 million.

Betsson attributed the sportsbook decline to seasonally lower activity and a lower sportsbook margin, with Q3 last year featuring the European Championship and Copa America football tournaments.

LatAm revenue accounted for 26% of Betsson’s revenue in Q3 compared to 28% in Q2.

However, Betsson noted continued underlying growth in Argentina in terms of customer deposits and turnover, while Peru and Colombia’s revenue also grew year-on-year.

Betsson plans to sustainably outgrow the market

For the nine months ending 30 September, Betsson reported an 11.7% increase in group revenue to €893.1 million.

EBITDA increased 6.5% to €244.4 million, while operating income also rose by 7.2% to €199.9 million.

Looking ahead, Betsson said its long-term plan was to sustainably “outgrow the market”, highlighting growth in existing markets, expansion into new markets and development of its B2B offering as growth areas.

Betsson initiates share buyback programme

Alongside its Q3 results, Betsson also announced it will initiate a share buyback programme with a maximum purchase amount of €40 million.

The buybacks will take place on the Nasdaq Stockholm stock exchange, with the process of repurchasing class B shares in Betsson to be managed by Arctic Securities AS.

The buyback programme starts on Friday and will last until 30 April next year.

Gross revenue for the month reached $302.7 million, the Michigan Gaming Control Board reported. This was 16% more than September 2024 and only 3.1% behind the state’s record haul in August this year.

Gross receipts from iGaming, covering online casino activity, were 27.9% higher than last year. However, gross sports betting receipts dipped 25.3% to $43.6 million for the month.

Total adjusted gross receipts, which accounts for promotional spend, was also higher year-on-year. The $256.6 million reported surpassed last year by 22.3%, with iGaming rising 33.5% to $243.4 million but sports betting falling 52% to $13.2 million.

In terms of spending, monthly handle for sports betting was $524.3 million, an increase of 4.5% from last year. As such, this resulted in a hold of 12.87% based on gross revenue and 3.89% for adjusted revenue.

FanDuel and MotorCity retain iGaming top spot in Michigan

Looking to operators, FanDuel and MotorCity again led the state’s iGaming market. The duo posted $69.8 million in gross revenue and $65.6 million in adjusted revenue.

MGM and BetMGM were not far off with $65.6 million and $61.9 million in gross and adjusted revenue, respectively. DraftKings and the Bay Mills Indian Community remained third with $40.4 million and $38 million.

As for sports betting, FanDuel and MotorCity also retained a healthy lead in this market. The partnership generated $18.3 million in gross revenue and $6.4 million adjusted revenue from $180.5 million in bets. Based on gross receipts, hold for the month was 10.14%.

DraftKings ranked second in terms of gross revenue at $10.6 million, though adjusted revenue was much lower at $462,507. Hold based on gross receipts and a $165.6 million handle was 6.40%.

BetMGM took third, posting $6.8 million in gross revenue and $3.5 million in adjusted revenue off a $66.7 million handle, resulting in a hold of 10.19%.

Monthly state tax hit $51.6 million, with $50.8 million from iGaming and $768,038 sports betting. City of Detroit tax totalled $13.4 million, including $13 million from iGaming and $375,738 sports betting. Tribal operators paid $6.1 million to governing bodies.

Detroit casino revenue falls again

The MGCB also published figures for the three commercial casinos in Detroit. Revenue for September reached $98.9 million, down 3% from last year and 7.5% behind August this year.

Table games and slots revenue fell 3% to $98.2 million during the month, while qualified adjusted gross receipts from sports betting revenue were also down, dipping 1.1% to $775,903.

MGM Grand Detroit remained the city leader with a 47% market share. MotorCity Casino followed at 30%, then Hollywood Casino at Greektown with 23%.

Speaking to analysts during the group’s Q3 earnings call on Thursday, Evolution CEO Martin Carlesund hinted at the December deadline, although he said the Gambling Commission had not specified a timeline for the review.  

Evolution Gambling Commission review stems from supplier crackdown

The GC commenced its review in December, after discovering the supplier’s games were being provided to unlicensed operators in the country. The case indicated a wider crackdown on supplier compliance in the UK, as the commission stepped up enforcement against the growing black market.  

Gambling Commission CEO Andrew Rhodes had previously warned operators to step up their monitoring of business relationships, to ensure partners were not facilitating illegal gambling. 

“When it comes to the UK Gambling Commission timeline, unfortunately I don’t have any other information. It’s in the hands of the regulator and our estimation is that it will be by the end of this year,” Carlesund told analysts.  

Q3 revenue dips on troubles in Asia  

In what has been a pivotal week for the group, as it unveiled that Playtech had commissioned a secret investigation against it, Evolution reported its net revenue for Q3 had decreased by 2.4% to €507.1 million. 

Carlesund blamed Asia for its continued impact on the group’s earnings, as it continued to fight targeted cyber-attacks during the period.  

He also looked to the Philippines iGaming market, noting it had been “very volatile” during its early stages.  

“Other markets such as India, which in our view show signs of moving towards regulation, create a higher level of uncertainty than before,” he said in a statement.  

However, the group reported quarter-on-quarter growth in Europe after a couple of challenging quarters during which the market had been impacted by ring-fencing actions to prevent Evolution’s games from being used in grey markets.  

Europe revenue hit €182.2 million in Q3, up from €180.2 million in Q2. But in a year-on-year comparison, Europe was down 6.5%. The ring-fencing exercise commenced after the commission’s review was launched. The supplier initiated the project to ensure it was meeting compliance requirements across Europe and not contributing to the growing back market.  

EBITDA for the period was down 18.9% to €337 million, while EBITDA margin hit 66.4%, down from 71.7% last year. Profit landed at €252.3 million, down 23.2%.  

Starting with Svenska Spel, the group saw net gaming revenue reach SEK1.87 billion ($199.4 million) in the quarter ended 30 September. This beat the previous year by 7%, the operator said in its Q3 financial report.

Svenska Spel noted growth across two of its three core businesses: Tur lottery and Sport & Casino. However, it saw a decline in the Vegas gaming machine segment, while the group was also slightly impacted by the discontinuation of its Casino Cosmopol land-based casino business.

Its final Casino Cosmopol location, in Stockholm, was shuttered in mid-H1. Several locations closed in January 2024, as well as another venue in Sundsvall in 2020.

However, growth across Tur lottery and Sport & Casino was more than enough to offset any impact of the closures, and indeed the Vegas declines, with top-line revenue clearing last year by a comfortable margin.

“Svenska Spel reports a third quarter with increased net gaming revenue, driven by strong product brands such as Eurojackpot and Oddset,” President and CEO Anna Johnson said. “Two out of three business areas show growth, which has a positive impact on the result, which increases compared to the same quarter last year.”

Lottery revenue exceeds SEK1.3 billion at Svenska Spel

Breaking down Q3, the Tur lottery remained Svenska Spel’s primary source of revenue by some margin. Revenue in this segment climbed by 7% to SEK1.31 billion. The operator put this down to a strong performance by Eurojackpot, where high jackpots contributed to increased customer interest, as well as a successful relaunch of Lotto.

Elsewhere, revenue from Sport & Casino jumped 9% year-on-year to SEK489 million. This, the group said, was helped by continued positive development for both online casino and sports betting under the Oddset brand, noting an increase in customers.

The only segment to go against the growth trend was Vegas, with machine revenue falling 10% to SEK78 million. Svenska Spel put this down to a fall in partners and a challenging economic situation affecting the restaurant industry.

Svenska Spel also noted that online accounted for SEK1.22 billion of total revenue, up 15% from last year. This meant online drew 65% of all revenue in Q3, compared to 60% in the same quarter of 2024.

Net profit rises to SEK584 million

Looking towards the bottom line, costs were relatively stable, although a drop in staffing costs following the Casino Cosmopol closures was posted.

Operating profit increased 18% to SEK718 million, on the back of revenue growth and stable expenses. Pre-tax profit also climbed 22.8% year-on-year to SEK739 million, helped by interest and other financial income.

Svenska Spel paid SEK155 million in tax, leaving a net profit of SEK584 million, up 18.5%.

“During the quarter, we delivered both increased revenue and progress within all of our strategic goals – a result of the joint work of the entire Svenska Spel,” Johnson said.

As for the year-to-date, net gaming revenue at the group for the nine months to the end of September was SEK5.56 billion, up 2%. Operating profit also increased on the back of this – by 8% to SEK1.90 billion for the period.

Pre-tax profit climbed 7% to SEK1.95 billion while, after SEK409 million in tax, net profit hit SEK1.54 billion, a rise of 8.3%.

ATG bounces back in Q3

Looking to ATG, the group saw net gaming revenue in Q3 rise 1% year-on-year to SEK1.30 billion. This was in contrast to the first two quarters of 2024, during which the operator posted a decline in revenue.

CEO Hasse Lord Skarplöth put the improved performance down to growth across horse and sports betting in Q3. He also noted a “continued focus on efficiency improvements”, with optimism about Q4 and beyond.

“It has been a challenging first half of the year for us, but the third quarter marks a small turnaround for ATG,” Skarplöth said. “The group’s net gaming revenue increased by 1% compared to the same quarter last year.

“To meet a changing market, we work consistently with efficiency improvements to reduce costs and strengthen profitability. We are already seeing clear results from an even more focused use of resources.”

Sports growth offsets casino decline

Analysing the quarterly performance, ATG said horse racing accounted for 77% of revenue in the period. However, the SEK958 million generated was only marginally more than in Q3 of last year.

In terms of sports betting, the performance here was more positive at SEK171 million, a rise of 6%. This pushed its total contribution to group revenue up from 12% to 13%.

However, in contrast, casino revenue dipped 1% to SEK167 million, or 10% of all revenue in the quarter. ATG noted that this year’s Q3 had four fewer jackpots than in the same period last year.

Digital and online channels generated SEK1.19 billion of all revenue, a rise of 2%. However, retail revenue dipped 8% year-on-year to SEK109 million.

Reduced spending pushes profit up at ATG

Looking at spending, expenses were reduced across several areas including gambling tax and other costs. Coupled with the slight rise in revenue, this allowed operating profit to climb 9% to SEK434 million.

Pre-tax profit increased 7% to SEK441 million while net profit after tax in Q3 also climbed 7% year-on-year to SEK428 million.

“Our ambition is clear: to create sustainable growth and strengthen ATG’s long-term competitiveness – for the benefit of our customers, the sport and the entire horse industry,” Skarplöth said.

As for the year-to-date, net gaming revenue for the nine months to end of September hit SEK3.86 billion. This fell 3% short of the previous year due to declines across both Q1 and Q2 at ATG.

Coupled with higher costs in some areas, this meant that operating profit fell 11% to SEK1.11 billion for the period. Pre-tax profit was also 12% lower year-on-year at SEK1.12 billion.

ATG paid SEK39 million in tax and also accounted for SEK2 million in positive foreign currency translation impact. This meant it ended the nine-month period with SEK1.08 billion in net profit, some 12% behind last year.

For September, gross gambling revenue in Pennsylvania hit $535.8 million. This beat the $505.9 million in the same month of 2024 but was 8% short of $582.3 million in August this year.

Figures from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board revealed double-digit growth within the iGaming market. However, sports betting revenue slumped 44.5% while land-based slots revenue was also lower year-on-year.

iGaming revenue hits $233.4 million

Breaking down the monthly performance and starting with iGaming, revenue here topped $233.4 million. This was 32.1% more than in September 2024.

Online slots accounted for $181.9 million of all iGaming revenue, up 37.1%. Internet table games drew $50 million, an increase of 17.8%, with the remaining $2.3 million coming from online poker, up 4.5%.

Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course and its online gaming partners again took top spot. Total iGaming revenue for the month reached $87.7 million, some 31% more than last year.

Valley Forge Casino Resort remained in second with $66.4 million, up 40.8%. Rivers Casino Philadelphia placed third at $35.4 million, ahead of last year by 12.5%.

Sports betting revenue dips to six-month low

Turning to sports betting, the situation was much different. Revenue was down 44.5% to $29.7 million, which was the lowest monthly total since March.

Online betting generated $24.4 million of the total, while retail sportsbooks contributed $5.4 million.

As for player spending, monthly handle topped $850.5 million, up 4.8% from September last year. Customers spent $810.1 million betting on sports online and a further $40.4 million at land-based locations.

In terms of operators, FanDuel and Valley Forge Casino Resort retained top spot. They retained $15.9 million in revenue off $297.6 million in handle, for a monthly hold of 5.34%.

DraftKings and Hollywood Casino at the Meadows remained second with $4.1 million from $253.6 million for a 1.62% hold. BetMGM and Hollywood Casino Morgantown followed with $2.1 million off a $58.1 million handle for a hold of 3.61%.

Land-based slots revenue dips in Pennsylvania

Looking to the land-based market, slot machine revenue dipped 1.5% to $194 million. Retail table games revenue, however, held steady at $73.4 million.

Elsewhere, video gaming terminal revenue at truck stop locations fell 0.6% to $29.7 million in September. The PGCB also noted a 5.4% increase in sports fantasy contest revenue to $2 million.

As for tax collected by the state, the monthly total was $227.9 million. This included $106.1 million from iGaming, $10.7 million sports betting, $96.6 million land-based slots and $12.3 million table games.

Yet, the revenue being generated through the “proliferation” of betting houses in the southern African nation was not flowing directly into the treasury, as punters’ winnings were untaxed. To formalise the industry and help boost revenue collection to meet “pressing budget needs”, he introduced the 10% withholding tax on gross sports betting winnings, one of only four taxes that he announced on that day.  

The tax, which came into force on 1 January, applies to winnings at all local betting shops and via online platforms operated by land-based bookmakers.

The Herald, a local daily, reported on 13 March that Zimbabwe’s gambling industry had generated about $120 million in revenue in 2023, with the online segment contributing $45 million.  

Ncube previously projected the economy could collect up to $15 million annually via the punters’ tax, based on his forecast of $150 million gross winnings in 2025. He said about 300,000 locals engaged in online betting in 2024, up 15% on the prior year, with 60% of bettors being between 18 and 35 years old.

“This growth has been fuelled by rising internet penetration and the accessibility of smartphones, with over 5.2 million devices in use nationwide,” the paper wrote.

Zimbabwe withholding tax will prove costly for operators

To comply with the new tax collection system, Marvellous Tapera, the founder and managing partner of WTS Tax Matrix, a leading Zimbabwean tax consultancy, said bookmakers were required to set up or upgrade their transaction and reporting systems to automatically calculate and withhold the 10% levy on all winning payouts across points of sale and online wallets.

“They also had to enhance accounting and reconciliation workflows to produce accurate monthly returns for ZIMRA (Zimbabwe Revenue Authority), train staff on tax procedures and customer communications, improve cash management and banking for timely remittances, and often consult tax or legal experts to ensure full compliance,” he tells iGB.

“Although feasible, these changes were operationally demanding and particularly costly for smaller operators, requiring significant time and financial resources,” Tapera adds.

Citing an anonymous operator, The Herald’s article reported Zimbabwe’s withholding tax would require a system upgrade costing up to $50,000 per platform. This is in addition to the $20,000 the average bookmaker spends on tax reporting yearly.

Tapera observes the betting tax’s flat structure raises fairness concerns. In its current form, he argues, the tax “is socially regressive” as it affects low-income and casual bettors compared to wealthier participants. It has the potential to squeeze operators’ profit margins and cause them to adjust odds to make up the losses.

“Applying a uniform 10% withholding tax without any exemption is regressive in a low-income economy like Zimbabwe’s, as it risks burdening poorer bettors and driving gambling activity to unregulated platforms,” Tapera adds.

He advises the government to adopt a more nuanced structure like the one proposed in South Africa, which is based on the amount and frequency of players’ winnings.

What can Zimbabwe learn from other African markets?

“South Africa’s model – a 15% withholding tax applied only to winnings above R25,000 – demonstrates how such a safeguard can protect casual players, and Zimbabwe would benefit from implementing a similar threshold or accompanying social protection measures,” Tapera suggests.

“Introducing a minimum exemption threshold or adopting a more progressive structure would make the system fairer while still capturing significant revenue from larger winnings.”

In a release on 5 September, Stats SA, South Africa’s national data agency, said the gambling sector generated $3.4 billion in GGR during the 2023-24 financial year. The latest figures from the National Gambling Board (NGB) in October reported an increase to $4.3 billion for the financial year 2024-25.

South Africa’s government announced the proposal to introduce a tax on winnings in 2011, with the aim being to start collecting it in the following year. The levy targets professional or regular bettors, while seeking to exclude casual punters.  

However, according to Deloitte, the government had not yet implemented the tax in February, due to staunch opposition from the local industry. 

Withholding tax must account for inflation

“The current economic climate, characterised by high unemployment and cost of living, calls for a balance between revenue generation and social protection,” the consultancy said in a 10 February note.

“A withholding tax on individual winnings may provide this balance if carefully structured. The minimum value for taxation should be reconsidered, taking into account inflation over the last 13 years since the first proposal. This will ensure that those gambling to supplement their low income are kept out of this tax net and do not turn to illegal gambling activities, which are completely out of SARS’ (South African Revenue Service) grasp,” the note said

In October, the Kenyan government similarly introduced a 5% withdrawal tax to replace its previous 20% tax on net winnings. It expects to collect about $74 million in the 2025-26 fiscal year, more than double the $35 million it collected previously.

Rapidly growing mobile penetration leaving land-based betting behind

Commenting on the new Kenyan model, Parliament’s “The Budget Watch 2025” document said a blanket tax rate could discourage casual participants and push actors from regulated platforms to offshore ones.

An official at one of Zimbabwe’s largest land-based operators expresses a similar concern to iGB. Speaking off the record, he says the withholding tax came into effect at a time when a large number of local punters is increasingly switching to unregulated and offshore operators.

“One now needs a mobile phone, a computer and an internet connection to start betting online,” he says.

“Some workers have been disciplined by their employers for participating in online gaming and betting using their employers’ computers and internet. And this [is on] platforms not subject to local regulations, including the new tax. 

“There are some people who used to visit brick-and-mortar branches who are now not doing so as frequently. [Zimbabwe’s witholding] tax will hasten the traffic to online platforms, leaving physical betting halls empty or for the few that don’t have smartphones and mobile data, and the old, technologically less-experienced ones.”

The Postal and Regulatory Authority of Zimbabwe said in its latest quarterly report in October that the nation’s mobile penetration rose from 101.39% in the first quarter of 2025 to 102.64% in the second.  The internet penetration also jumped from 76.19% in March, to 81.83% by June.

Revenue for the month amounted to $563.7 million, according to the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement. This was marginally ahead of September 2024 but 12.2% behind August this year.

Both the online casino and land-based gambling markets reported some level of increase in September. However, further growth was prevented by a double-digit drop in sports betting revenue.

Sports betting revenue down 24.9%

Taking a closer look at sports wagering, revenue fell 24.9% year-on-year to $89.8 million. Online betting revenue dropped 19.4% to $89.8 million, while retail wagering generated a $13,173 loss for September.

Players spent 3.7% more to put statewide handle at $1.13 billion, including $1.07 billion online and $60.1 million at retail sportsbooks. This resulted in a monthly hold of 8.72% in New Jersey.

In terms of operators, FanDuel and Meadowlands remained the runaway leaders with $37.7 million in online revenue. DraftKings and Resorts World followed with $22.6 million, then BetMGM and Borgata at $7.1 million.

As for retail, Meadowlands led the way with $4.2 million for the month. Monmouth Park was the only other operator to exceed $1 million in revenue, posting $1.2 million in September.

New Jersey nears iGaming record

Turning to iGaming, online casino revenue for the month reached $243.1 million. This beat last year by 16.8% and was only just short of the $248.4 million record set in August this year.

Slots and table games drew $240.7 million of all online revenue, a rise of 16.9%. The other $2.5 million came from online poker, up 10.7% year-on-year.

FanDuel and partner Golden Nugget again took top spot with $56.6 million in total iGaming revenue. DraftKings and Resorts World were second at $48.4 million, with BetMGM and the Borgata completing the top three by earning $30.3 million.

Land-based gambling edges up despite slots dip

As for the land-based sector, total revenue was 0.1% higher in September at $230.7 million.

This came despite a 1.8% drop in slot machine revenue to $170.1 million. On the other hand, table games revenue increased 5.7% year-on-year to $60.6 million.

Looking at New Jersey’s year-to-date, total gambling revenue at the end of September stood at $5.13 billion. This was 8.7% more than at the same point in 2024.

Revenue from iGaming was 22.7% higher at $2.12 billion, though sports betting revenue was 4.4% lower at $798.5 million. Land-based gambling revenue increased 2.5% to $2.21 billion.

The session was presented to the committee by the National Gambling Board (NGB) and the National Lotteries Commission (NLC).

Overall turnover across all verticals stood at ZAR1.5 trillion. “Obviously this figure includes all of the [gambling] sectors, and also across the PLAs,” NGB acting Chairman Lungile Dukwana told members.

PLAs are Provincial Licensing Authorities that have the power to grant land-based and online licenses within their region. There are nine in South Africa today.

GGR from online betting was up 60% on the previous year, the data showed. And taxes and levies collected by regulatory bodies amounted to ZAR5.8 billion ($335 million), with the betting sector accounting for the greatest share of these taxes (59%) at ZAR3.4 billion.

This was followed by the casino industry (30%), which generated ZAR1.7 billion. Limited Payout Machines (LPM) (9% overall) generated ZAR525 million and the bingo industry accounted for 2%.

Provincially, the Western Cape was the major driver in terms of gambling revenue generation (30%), with Mpumalanga coming in second and Gauteng third. Data showed the gambling industry directly employed 33,169 people during the year.

“The [data] gives an indication of the prominence around the area of online betting specifically, which obviously has an effect on the physical casinos,” said Dukwana.

Dukwana was appointed to head the board following the resignation of former head Caroline Kongwa in July, after a forensic audit flagged “irregular spending” within the department, related to a number of bonuses she had received.

Lottery finances in South Africa

Moving on to key financial movements from the Lottery Commission between 2024 and 2025, ticket sales rose from ZAR1.8 billion to ZAR1.96 billion thanks to an increase in the number of major jackpots, digital penetration and marketing.

Operational costs increased from ZAR533 million to ZAR651 million, while grant expenses also increased from ZAR545 million to ZAR958 million. Irregular expenditures noticeably decreased from ZAR44.9 million to ZAR6.8 million.

Commissioner for the NLC Jodi Scholtz outlined the board’s activities across South Africa’s nine provinces, which included erecting new offices in each, as well as morphing into a more purpose-driven organisation.

Impact of the black market on South Africa

During the session, a number of MPs flagged how a surge in mobile phone usage was driving up illegal gambling activity among players.

The regulators told the committee that most of the offshore operators providing unlicensed gambling in the market appeared to be licensed or based in Curaçao.

Dukwana’s presentation also outlined the NGB’s upcoming strategy, which he said would involve the regulator assessing the performance of PLAs “to ensure the national norms and standards established by the NGA are applied uniformly and consistently throughout the Republic of South Africa”.

Additionally, the national regulator would assist the PLAs in detecting and targeting unlicensed gambling activities in the market.

Operators across the Netherlands were forced to shut their doors for set periods in line with national pandemic lockdowns, to help stop the spread of Covid-19.

One operator impacted by the closures raised a case with the Dutch Council of State in July this year. It argued that KSA should not have imposed a gambling tax while the venue was closed for part of 2020.

The council confirmed the unnamed operator was exempt from paying gambling tax on the days when it could not open. As such, it ruled the operator should be refunded the tax for these periods.

Following the ruling, KSA will open up similar refund options to other operators also impacted by Covid-19. Those that think they fit the criteria have until 14 November to submit a claim for the period between 2020 and 2021.

“In practice, this means a partial refund of the levies based on the periods in which the sector was forced to close due to the coronavirus,” KSA said in a statement on 17 October.

“This refund will also include the statutory interest from the payment date by the licence holder, to the repayment date of the tax.”

Tax refunds may impact Covid-19 financial support

However, while the regulator will consider all applications, it did issue a warning over the wider impact of the scheme.

It said any refund could be impacted by any financial support operators received during the pandemic. KSA also urged gambling businesses to consider whether they currently owe any tax and if a refund application is “worthwhile”.

Any adjustment would automatically be included when determining an operator’s final gambling tax for 2022.

“The coronavirus period was an exceptional situation,” KSA said. “We will review all applications for accuracy and assess each case individually to determine whether to issue a refund.

“However, we warn that a refund of the gambling tax may have consequences, for example, previously received Covid-19 support or taxes due. It is the provider’s own responsibility to determine whether a refund application is worthwhile.”

The newly combined business is valued at around €16 billion. In an era when European gambling operators are scrambling to keep pace with regulatory changes, technological disruption and the need for scale, this deal could be seen as both a defensive manoeuvre and a bold strike forward.

Although anticipated – Allwyn first invested in OPAP in 2013 – the full buyout marks a watershed moment not only for the companies involved but for the European gambling sector as a whole.

As Ben Robinson, an M&A advisor at Corfai Capital, puts it: “This is a mega-deal in a sector that has historically been sleepy. Allwyn is proving that a lottery company can act like a high-growth tech firm.”

The deal transforms Allwyn, which changed its legal status to a Swiss-based entity in October 2024, from a regional lottery operator into a vertically integrated, multi-product juggernaut with operations across Europe and ambitions to conquer the US.

It becomes the second-largest listed gaming group globally with pro forma EBITDA of €1.9 billion amid double-digit growth. It trails only Flutter Entertainment, whose 2025 EBITDA is projected at around $3.3 billion.

A decade-long courtship

Allwyn’s relationship with OPAP spans over a decade. The group, formerly known as Sazka, took an initial stake in 2013 and gradually deepened its involvement before increasing its stake in OPAP to 48.1% in 2022. This full acquisition is not a shotgun marriage but, as Robinson called it, “a decade-long courtship” during which Allwyn dissected OPAP’s business and built a shared technology roadmap.

Ed Birkin of H2 Gambling Capital frames the move as a natural evolution rather than a surprise. “They already owned 52% of OPAP, so acquiring the remaining 48% isn’t something that is overly surprising or unusual,” he says.

What matters is not the transaction itself but what it enables: a strategic leap forward. Birkin notes: “This is the logical next step in the transformation of Allwyn from a Czech lottery operator to a truly global powerhouse in the gambling sector.”

One brand, one tech, one team

At a joint presentation held between Allwyn and OPAP’s exec teams on 12 October Allwyn CEO Robert Chvátal framed the takeover as a milestone in the group’s journey.

“With this combination we will be able to grow further, faster as we deploy group-wide know-how, a unified brand and sponsorship strategy, and in-house technology and content,” he told analysts.

OPAP’s CEO Jan Karas echoed that ambition, adding the new deal was a springboard for innovation. “This exciting combination creates a leading gaming company with strong Greek heritage, as well as a continued presence and listing in Greece,” he said.

“Building the portfolio of attractive games that customers appreciate and bringing innovations is something that we leverage not only from best practices but also practical solutions.”

He also highlighted plans to adopt AI processes across multiple disciplines, noting: “Adopting AI for us is going to happen across multiple disciplines, ranging from customer solutions to platforms and internal productivity.”

The emphasis, according to both executives, is on operational integration: “one brand, one tech, one team.”

Financial appeal for OPAP investors

The detail around tech integration caught Robinson’s attention – particularly Allwyn’s plan to roll out in-house AI and data analytics platforms across OPAP’s retail operations.

This, he says, could potentially edge out longtime technology partners like Intralot and give Allwyn tighter control over its customer engagement and operational costs.

For OPAP shareholders, it’s not just a change of ownership but a change of trajectory. Robinson points to the dividend yield as a key part of the financial appeal.

“Management promised a minimum €1/share from FY 2026. With OPAP shares trading around €18.7 and a current dividend yield of ~7.6%, this implies a forward yield of about 5% – higher than many US blue-chip dividends,” he explains.

Global listing part of Allwyn‘s global transformation

Allwyn’s takeover of OPAP exemplifies a wider trend of consolidation in the gambling sector, driven by tighter regulations and challenging market economics. Across Europe and beyond, operators are seeking scale and diversification to maintain competitive advantage.

“It’s a smart piece of finance,” says Paul Richardson, an M&A specialist at Partis Solutions. “It ticks a lot of boxes for what they want, which is a listing for Allwyn and then the ability to do bigger and better things in other markets.”

A public listing in Athens gives Allwyn the liquidity and equity currency to pursue more deals, with a possible secondary listing elsewhere on the horizon. During the presentation, Allwyn said it would look to New York or London for its second listing.

Richardson estimates a six‑ to nine‑month window for a US listing, but points out that first the group must prove that the business is well-executed and actually achieving the promised benefits before attempting an IPO abroad.

Strengthening OPAP’s position

The deal also strengthens OPAP’s position, says Birkin. “With the market consolidating to a number of large, global operators, being part of this is going to position them better for the future than being a standalone single market leader.”

But he believes the actual acquisition of the remaining 48% of OPAP is “pretty irrelevant” in a European or global context.

“I wouldn’t compare this to past deals [of similar size] such as Bwin and PartyGaming, Ladbrokes and Coral, Ladbrokes Coral and GVC, Paddy Power and Betfair – all of those were pretty transformational deals for the industry at the time,” says Birkin.

“For Allwyn, the key part here is that, on the back of its acquisitions of Novibet and PrizePicks, and the other M&A it’s done in recent years, to consolidate the extra earnings from OPAP combined with the public listing, this now really puts them on the map as a global powerhouse,” he adds.

But Robinson does believe that Allwyn´s takeover of OPAP could affect the European market and may force Europe’s state lotteries to either privatise or partner up.

“The line between public lotteries and private bookmakers is blurring. Expect a more competitive, tech-driven European market.”

He compared the deal with France’s FDJ acquisition of Kindred for €2.45 billion in terms of expanding beyond its domestic market, and DraftKings’ $750 million acquisition of digital-lottery courier Jackpocket.

Legal obstacles

If the industry is moving towards scale and diversification, Allwyn wants to lead the charge. The strategy is to position itself as a 360-degree gaming and entertainment platform, combining national lottery licences with sports betting, fantasy and casino offerings.

“By controlling national lotteries, Allwyn secures a wide moat and an easy marketing journey,” says Robinson. “By adding high-growth verticals, it chases Flutter-like multiples.”

PrizePicks, Allwyn’s recent US-focused acquisition, which enters the group into fantasy sports, is part of that ambition – although is not without legal obstacles. The company ceased paid contests in New York because of regulatory issues and paid a $15 million fine. It is also facing a class-action lawsuit in Massachusetts.

Robinson notes: “While the acquisition is a catalyst, Allwyn must navigate legal headwinds before touting PrizePicks to US investors.”

But the stakes are rising. A New York listing is being explored, although the group previously stumbled in the US in an abandoned SPAC attempt to become listed on the NYSE.

That was back in 2022 when it struck a deal with Cohn Robbins Holdings Corp. The reverse merger was cancelled later that year, as both sides cited unfavourable market conditions. A traditional IPO is more likely today, particularly given the equity value of the €16 billion OPAP deal and its recent foothold in US fantasy sports.

Debt is manageble

The group’s potential global reach, vertical integration and AI capability positions it well for expansion but execution remains the hardest part. Integrating technology stacks, aligning regulatory frameworks and blending corporate cultures are all challenges that must be addressed, industry observers have said.

Debt is manageable for now: pro forma net leverage is around 2.7x EBITDA, with a target of 2.5x. CEO Chvátal reassured investors during the deal presentation that “the secondary listing in Athens will not involve new equity issuance” and that free float – the amount of stock available to the public – will stay about the same.

More takeover deals and buyouts may follow in Allwyn´s quest for domination. As Richardson admits, “I expect Allwyn to carry on doing M&A.”

With OPAP under full control, Allwyn has the scale, story and strategy to compete on the world stage. Now it must deliver.

Revenue for the month reached DKK714 million ($112 million), national gambling regulator Spillemyndigheden said. This was comfortably clear of the DKK571 million posted in August 2024 and 12.6% above DKK634 million in July this year.

Breaking this down, the regulator highlighted sports betting as the main area of growth. During the month, revenue in this segment jumped 53.4% year-on-year to DEKK225 million. This was also the highest monthly total of the year so far.

Mobile sports betting accounted for DKK160 million, or 71.3%, of all revenue. Revenue from computer betting topped DKK37 million, while retail stores generated DKK27 million.

Double-digit growth was also reported within the iGaming sector, where revenue climbed 20.7% to DKK361 million. As has been the case for some time, this segment also remained the primary source of gambling revenue in Denmark.

Online slots drew the most revenue at DKK284 million, or 78.6% of the segment total. Next was online blackjack with DKK22.5 million in revenue, ahead of roulette on DKK16.9 million, poker at DKK8.6 million and bingo DKK8.2 million. The remaining DKK21.1 million was split between other games.

Mixed news for land-based gambling in Denmark

Turning towards the land-based gambling market, revenue from slot machines dipped 0.7% year-on-year to DKK95 million. Of this, DKK76.8 million came from physical machines placed in gaming halls and DKK18.7 million terminals in restaurants.

However, land-based casino revenue edged up 4.9% to DKK31 million in August. It was the fifth consecutive month that revenue in the sector surpassed DKK30 million.

The remaining DKK2 million was drawn from land-based bingo activities, in line with the past few months.

Spillemyndigheden also published figures on self-exclusion during the month. By the end of August, a total of 63,488 had registered with the ROFUS scheme. This included 41,362 who had permanently excluded from gambling and 22,126 who opted for temporary exclusion.

Of all registrants since the scheme launched in 2012, some 65.2% permanently blocked themselves from gambling. The next highest option was six months, with 16.2% of users selecting this period.

Revenue for the three months to 30 September amounted to €864 million ($1.01 billion), FDJ United reported. This fell short of the €890 million restated amount for the corresponding period in the previous year.

Restated revenue for Q3 2024 is based on the assumption that Kindred Group was part of the FDJ business last year. FDJ United closed its €2.45 billion acquisition of Kindred in October 2024, with its results first included in the group’s Q4 2024 numbers.

However, FDJ flagged that revenue would have been stable had it not been for various gambling tax increases across Europe, primarily France. It said the impact of the higher taxes was €21 million, with €18 million of this coming from rises in France.

Tax increases in France came into effect on 1 July and spanned both land-based and iGaming activities. The largest rise was for online betting, with the rate rising to 59.3% from 54.9% of GGR. Previously, FDJ said the changes would cut €45 million from its EBITDA total for 2025.

The market also faced increases across social welfare contributions from gambling operators as of last July.

“The change in FDJ United’s revenue at the end of September reflects the prolonged decrease in our online betting and gaming business in certain markets and the impact of higher taxation on gaming, particularly in France since 1 July,” Chairwoman and CEO Stéphane Pallez said.

Some growth despite tax impact in Q3

Detailing its performance, FDJ United revealed mixed fortunes across its four business segments. French lottery and sports betting remained the primary source of revenue at €595 million, a rise of 2.1%.

However, excluding the €14 million impact of gaming tax increase on lottery, revenue here would have been 4.5% higher year-on-year.

Lottery revenue climbed 2.5% to €508 million, driven by draw games and instant games. As for sports betting, this remained level at €87 million, despite a tough comparison period in 2024 that included the latter part of the Euro 2024 football tournament.

However, revenue from online betting and gaming fell 15.6% in Q3 to €209 million, again on a restated comparison basis.

FDJ put this down to an additional tax deficit of €7 million, mainly due to the rises in France but also in Romania. It also noted tighter regulations in both the UK and the Netherlands.

As for the other two segments, international lottery revenue edged up 0.3% to €44 million for the quarter. However, revenue from payments and services dipped 1.8% to €16 million.

Year-to-date revenue tops €2.73 billion at FDJ

As to how Q3 impacted FDJ in its year-to-date, revenue for the nine months through to the end of September hit €2.73 billion. This was 2.1% short of last year’s restated €2.79 billion total.

Declines were reported in all but one of the group’s business segments. French lottery and retail sports betting revenue was up 3.1% to €1.89 billion, with a 4.8% rise in lottery revenue to €1.57 billion offsetting a 4.8% decline in sports betting revenue.

Online betting and gaming revenue fell 12.9% to €675 million on the back of higher taxes in France and tightened regulations in other markets. International lottery revenue also dipped 11.5% to €124 million – due to the sale of Sporting Group at the end of 2024 – while payments and services revenue slipped 1.6% to €47 million.

FDJ vows to step up cost cutting

Looking ahead, FDJ said it anticipated a slight drop in revenue for the fourth quarter. This will likely be due to lower revenue from French lottery and retail sports betting, as Q4 includes several “exceptional events” in draw games. However, online betting and gaming revenue is likely to be stable.

With this, FDJ said it expects full-year revenue to reach “more than €3.70 billion”. Given that last year’s restated total was €3.79 billion, this could mean a year-on-year decline in revenue for the group. Recurring EBITDA is set to hit approximately €900 million with a recurring margin above 24%.

In addition, FDJ said it will now step up its cost reduction efforts as part of its 2025-2028 performance plans.

“The group deepens its transformation and performance plan in 2025 and pursues the operational implementation of its strategy, in line with the growth objectives of its Play Forward 2028 plan,” Pallez said.

This figure includes its 50% share in the US-facing BetMGM business, although the operator did, for the second time, break its earnings down to also exclude its US figures.  

Ex-US NGR was up 4% or 5% cc, assisted by a 10% NGR uptick in the CEE region. 

UK NGR was up 8%, in line with expectations the operator said, with online (up 15%) largely driving the uptick. This was down to “growth in players’ values driving strong volumes and further market share gains”, Entain said.  

Notably NGR in Brazil was down 10% year-on-year during the period due to unfavourable sporting results which offset 14% volume growth.  

During the earnings call on Wednesday, Group CFO Rob Wood said that, despite this drop in revenue, the company is “excited” by Brazil’s potential.  

Wood dubbed the Brazil results as “genuine bad luck from sports results” as the market has a high football mix and was impacted by both Champions League and local league results.  

Wood insisted that, despite the dip, the market was “trading on the right side of expectations on a volume basis”.  

Impact of tax hike in UK  

When asked on the earnings call about mitigating the impact a possible remote gambling tax increase could have in the UK, Entain CEO Stella David warned a number of business areas would take a hit. 

“There are a number of levers we could pull which include being less generous on bonusing, odds [could] be not quite as good, a reduction in marketing. These are all things that one does to mitigate against unwelcome tax increases,” David told analysts.  

Adding to David’s point, Wood said the sports sector would take a hit as operators (including Entain) would likely pull back on sponsorship deals and the advertising around them.  

“It doesn’t matter which [market’s] tax [rate] moves, sponsorships, because there is a long pay back and they are about brand awareness, are an obvious place operators will go,” Wood added.  

“The only winner in that situation is the black market because they have less competitive disadvantage. The loser of course is [the] sports [sector].” 

“Obviously we don’t sit on our hands and not plan for those eventualities,” David added.  

The possible increase in remote gambling tax is a hot topic among the sector today and was also addressed in Rank’s Q1 2025 earnings update on Wednesday.  

In April the UK government said it was considering a new tax framework for remote gambling. It opened a consultation and is expected to provide an update on its plans in the 26 November autumn budget.  

Analysts asked Entain execs whether a hike could benefit the operator by speeding up industry consolidation and weeding out smaller competitors.  

Wood said it was certain that smaller operators would be squeezed, and up to 25% of the UK’s iGaming market was made up of tier 3 or smaller operators.  

Entain AUSTRAC proceedings update  

On the operator’s ongoing legal proceedings with Australia’s AUSTRAC, David said she was pleased with the operator’s current compliance framework in the market.  

“I think we’re probably market leading [with the system we have in place now],” David said. She noted there was no clear timeline for the proceedings and the legal process could end up being worked out in court.

It is currently working through a mediation process with the regulator, which “will take as long as it takes”, she said. Mediation started in the summer.

The operator appointed a new permanent CEO for its Australia business in August. Andrew Vouris acted as interim CEO for two months before being made permanent.

For the three months through to 30 September, revenue at BetMGM amounted to $667 million. This, the operator said in a trading update on Tuesday, was accompanied by a 13% rise in player spending to $3.16 billion.

Growth across the board in Q3

BetMGM noted double-digit net revenue growth across both its iGaming and sports betting segments.

Online sports betting saw the most growth, with revenue rising by 36% to $202 million. The operator put this down to an upgraded online sports product, which it said offers users an improved experience. However, it also noted how favourable sports results in July and August were partly offset by customer-friendly results in September.

Within the sports betting segment, NGR per active was 49% higher than in Q3 of last year. In addition, handle per active increased 23%.

As for iGaming, revenue jumped 21% to $454 million, which BetMGM said was helped by “continued strong growth” in player acquisition, retention and activity. Average monthly actives were 21% higher in Q3.

Also on iGaming, BetMGM referenced several developments as part of its ongoing plans to improve its offering. These included exclusive omnichannel title launches and cross-selling iGaming on its sports betting offering.

A further $11 million in net gaming revenue came from retail and other operations during Q3. In addition, BetMGM reported positive group EBITDA of $41 million for the period, in contrast to last year’s $16 million loss.

BetMGM raises full-year guidance again

As for its performance in the year-to-date, BetMGM said group revenue for the nine months to the end of September is set to hit $2.02 billion. This would be 31% more than last year’s total for the same period.

Revenue from iGaming is set to be 26% higher at $1.35 billion, with sports betting revenue up 52% to $624 million. In addition to this, player spending in the nine-month period is set to amount to $10.67 billion, a rise of 22%.

On top of this, EBITDA for the year-to-date was placed at $150 million, in contrast to the $139 million loss posted in the previous year. Incidentally, the $150 million figure is what BetMGM expected full-year EBITDA to reach when it increased guidance after a positive Q2 showing.

Initially, BetMGM said during its full-year 2024 results that it would be “EBITDA positive” for the year. However, having exceeded expectations in each reporting period, this is now set to rise again, with the operator issuing improved guidance.

Now, full-year EBITDA is set to reach $200 million, BetMGM said in the update. In addition, net revenue is on track to hit $2.75 billion, in line with the “at least $2.7 billion” stated after Q2.

Business ‘healthier than ever’, says CEO

“Our momentum from H1 continued into Q3, underpinned by the ongoing execution of our strategic plan,” BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt said. “The execution in operations we have described this year – improved marketing efficiency, player management, brand positioning and product and platform improvements – all contributed to our strong revenue growth and material cash flow increase from both sides of the business.

“Strong underlying metrics and margin outperformance during July and August support our confidence in raising guidance for full year 2025. Furthermore, we have reached yet another inflection point in our journey, returning operating cash flow back to Entain and MGM Resorts.

“My previous statements that BetMGM is healthier than it has ever been still ring loudly and our stronger-than-expected performance through Q3 positions us well for the rest of the year and into 2026.”

BetMGM commits to return $200 million to parents

Also noted in the update were details on returning funds to the brand’s parent companies. Entain and MGM Resorts International have run the operation as a joint venture since 2019.

In August this year, BetMGM Chief Financial Officer Gary Deutsch said the operator could be in a position to return cash to both parents by the end of the year. Deutsch was speaking after BetMGM’s positive showing in Q2.

Now, BetMGM has confirmed that it intends to return “at least $200 million” to Entain and MGM by the end of the year. After this, it still expects to end 2025 with approximately $100 million of unrestricted cash.

It added that distributions of cash to parents will be on a “quarterly cadence” going forward.

For the three months to 30 September, net gaming revenue at Rank topped £210.2 million ($280.9 million). This, the group said, surpassed the £197.5 million reported in the same period in the previous year.

While Rank reported growth across all four of its core business segments, the highest rise came in digital. Here, like-for-like revenue climbed 13% year-on-year to reach £61.6 million in Q1.

Rank noted a 31% spike in Grosvenor digital revenue as well as a 9% rise within its Mecca online segment. In Spain, however, net gaming revenue fell 1% due to previously reported platform capacity issues. Rank said such issues are being addressed, with the launch of a new bingo platform set to see the segment return to growth in Q2.

Rank sees Grosvenor venues revenue exceed £100 million

Turning to land-based operations, net gaming revenue from the Grosvenor venues business was up 8% to £102.7 million. Again, this segment drew the most revenue for the group.

Growth here was helped by a 5% increase in customer visits and a 3% increase in spend per visit. Outside London, Rank said Grosvenor’s performance grew 10%, whereas in the British capital growth was noted at 4%.

The group said a relatively quieter summer in London was offset by an improved performance of Victoria Casino. This followed a major refurbishment that was completed in July.

Breaking down this segment further, electronic table gaming revenues grew 11%, which the group said represented “return on investment” from recent upgrades to terminals. Table games revenue edged up 3% and gaming machine revenue climbed 12% following the rollout of additional B1 gaming machines across the estate.

This latter point followed a pledge from Rank to take advantage of new land-based rules in the UK implemented in August. These included allowing casinos to instal more gaming machines and potentially offer in-house sports betting. Rank said in August it was exploring plans to launch sports betting at its UK casinos.

Elsewhere, revenue from Mecca venues grew 5% despite a 1% decline in overall customer visits. Spend per customer, however, was 6% higher year-on-year. Finally, Enracha venues in Spain reported a 5% increase in revenue for the quarter.

Rank paying ‘fair share’ of tax

Chief Executive John O’Reilly spoke positively about the Q1 performance. He said the figures place the group on track to hit its full-year targets.

“We have started the year strongly,” O’Reilly said. “We’re confident of delivering group like-for-like operating profit in line with expectations, notwithstanding the significant cost increases we have incurred in employer national insurance contributions, the national living wage and the new statutory levy.

“We are pleased to be rolling out additional gaming machines in our Grosvenor venues. We’re on track with our installation programme and now expect a total of 850 incremental machines to be added to our estate before the end of H1 2025-26.”

O’Reilly also addressed ongoing speculation regarding tax changes in the upcoming budget in November. Reports suggest the government is likely to increase gambling tax in the UK. The main change could be a switch to a single rate for all remote gambling.

Speaking in August after Rank published its full-year results, O’Reilly urged the government to tread carefully in terms of implementing changes to tax. Now, he said the group is paying its fair share of tax already, given its strong UK focus.

“Speculation regarding tax changes in the upcoming budget is, inevitably, hanging over the business,” O’Reilly said. “We are engaged with the treasury on the implications of tax changes on the viability of our venues, employment levels, future investment and the customer.

“Last year the group generated £44.6 million in profit after tax, having paid HMRC and local authorities £188.0 million in taxes. Rank Group, with its strong UK focus, is certainly paying its fair share.”

Farias proposed PL 5,076/2025 on 9 October, notably just a day after the Brazil Chamber of Deputies withdrew a provisional measure that had intended to raise the gambling tax from 12% to 18%.

Under Farias’ bill, half of the revenue from the 24% tax rate would go towards social security and actions within public health, while the remainder would be split between sectors such as sports and culture.

In his justifications for the bill, Farias noted the huge volume of betting in Brazil, which the bill reported now sits behind just the US and the UK in terms of highest betting consumption, according to a 2023 Comscore study.

“This growing increase in bets and the number of bets is accompanied by several social and economic problems,” Farias’ bill read. “What often begins as a joke can eventually lead to gambling addiction.

“Gambling addiction, in addition to having a strong impact on the mental health of gamblers and their families, can have a significant impact on personal and family finances, leading to significant indebtedness.”

Workers’ Party trying again to hike gambling tax in Brazil

Farias is a member of the Workers’ Party, currently in power and led by Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

However, the failure of the Workers’ Party to pass any new rules on gambling tax last week has cast major doubt over its ability to fulfil its economic policies.

The previous tax increase bill, PM 1,303, initially intended to raise gambling taxes by 50%.

However, this was scrapped in the lead-up to last week’s vote on the provisional measure, with a retrospective tax programme on licensed operators’ pre-regulation activities also vetoed.

This new bill, PL 5,076/2025, marks a new attempt to try and increase gambling taxes and aid the government’s economic agenda.

“This proposed law increases Brazilian taxation on betting to a higher level than the average for other activities – which is justified by the fact that betting is an activity that is harmful to health and the family economy,” PL 5,076/2025 reads.

“However, it is important to emphasise that, even with the proposed increase, the Brazilian tax rate will still be below the rate of other countries, such as France and Germany.

“Therefore, to try to reduce this epidemic, in addition to all the regulations being developed by the federal government, we must increase taxes on betting so that bets become a little less attractive and so that the country obtains the resources necessary to invest in its healthcare system.”

Last week the Spanish government imposed a new policy requiring online gambling operators to present tobacco-style warnings across their products, alerting players to the dangers of gambling addiction and the likelihood of losing money.

Speaking to iGB, Hinojosa said the body had found out about the new policy in the media. It was not included in any discussions with the regulator before the announcement by Minister for Social Rights Pablo Bustinduy at a safer gambling event on 1 October.  

“The only thing we know is the Ministry for Consumer Affairs said last week ‘we are going to implement these new measures’ but said nothing about how the resolution [would be included in the law].

“They didn’t share any proposal with the sector, so we are exactly like you, reading about it in the media,” he adds.  

No clear timeline for tobacco-style warnings introduction

When asked when the tobacco–style warnings must be introduced by operators, Hinojosa says there has been no clear response from the regulator.  

“This is not really [made clear] by the regulator. We don’t know exactly what it’s about. We would like, once again, a solid impact analysis.” 

According to the government’s announcement, the rule was implemented into Spain’s gambling laws as part of the Royal Decree 958/2020, which covers marketing and gambling communications.   

It also noted the influence of recent addiction data as justification for the measure. The data was published by the Spanish Ministry for Health in 2024 and formed part of the country’s National Drug Plan.   

But Hinojosa questioned the relevance of the data, saying: “[Looking at addiction statistics] and the gambling problem across the consumer, it’s not really a bigger problem than before.”   

“The data for addiction among students is similar over the last four or five years. It is concerning for us, of course, but it’s not really a bigger or different problem than before.” 

Return of strict ad measures expected in Spain  

Policymakers in Spain are considering further player protection measures, including restoring a previously withdrawn ban on the use of celebrities in gambling advertising. 

The minister said this was currently being processed through the Spanish Congress and he did not offer a timeframe for the measure to be reinstated.    

Hinojosa tells iGB that up to five policies from the original Royal Decree 958/2020, which heavily restricted gambling marketing back in 2020, are being reconsidered by the government.  

These regulations sought to reduce minors’ exposure to gambling advertising in Spain by banning aspects such as sponsorship deals with operators. 

The decree was approved by the Supreme Court in November 2020, but a number of measures were overturned in 2024.  

Other stakeholders have speculated that the full scope of restrictions could be reinforced in the short to medium term, including watersheds for TV and radio advertising and welcome bonuses for new customers.  

“Big changes in regulation must be strongly grounded in empirical evidence and temporal sequences, rather than political decisions driven by impulse, intuition, or the partial interpretation of a single data point,” he says of the government’s overall approach to gambling reform.  

““It is [difficult] to understand why there are so many regulations to protect the player, then who protects the gambling market?”   

But Hinojosa says there is no indication of a timeline for these policies to be debated, due to the current political instability in Spain.  

In June, the organisational secretary of the Spanish Prime Minister’s Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) resigned on corruption claims and the prime minister himself has faced opposition calls to resign over the scandal which extends to others within the party.  

No threat of gambling tax increase in Spain 

One challenge that Hinojosa does not expect the Spanish sector to face is that of increasing tax rates. Governments across the UK and Netherlands and further afield to Latvia and Romania are considering or are already implementing tax increases for the sector.  

But Hinojosa says Spain has not had a budget session in the last two years and is not expected to have one in 2025, meaning any potential tax rise is not on the cards in the short term.  

“We do not expect any change to the tax system,” he tells iGB. “It would be another blow to the investments and the innovation that the sector brings to the country, whether the government likes it or not.” 

The measure was included this week in an amended version of PM 1,303, which sought to address a number of economic policies in Brazil. 

The retroactive tax would have replaced initial plans for a permanent increase in gambling tax from 12% to 18% of GGR. 

This tax rise was introduced in June as a provisional measure. But operators will return to paying the original 12% now the measure has been scrapped.  

The bill was approved by a congressional joint committee on Tuesday, with members voting in favour, 13-12.  

But as it hit its final stage on Wednesday, PM 1,303 failed to gain the required support to pass through Congress. 

The Chamber of Deputies withdrew the bill due to it not having the necessary support to pass. Members voted 251-193 in favour of the bill’s withdrawal.  

Senator Rehan Calheiros, the chair of the joint committee that analysed PM 1,303 on Tuesday, said the bill’s failure to pass could have huge ramifications for Brazil. 

In its amended form, the bill which included other economic measures was expected to generate BRL17 billion ($3.2 billion) in additional revenue over 2026. 

“This is very bad. It ends up affecting public finances. I think it’s regrettable,” Calheiros said. 

What does this mean for betting operators in Brazil? 

The retroactive tax scheme, dubbed RERCT Litígio Zero Bets, was introduced within the bill as a voluntary programme, requesting operators pay a 15% tax on gambling operations carried out between 2014 and 2024, prior to regulation on 1 January this year. 

Operators joining the programme would also pay a 15% fine, leading to an effective total tax charge of 30%.  

Udo Seckelmann, head of gambling & crypto at Brazilian law firm Bichara e Motta Advogados, told iGB this week the programme could have offered legal certainty for licensed betting operators in Brazil, helping them to avoid tax disputes in the future. 

What happens now? 

The expiry of PM 1,303 means retrospective taxes will not happen in the short term, but it is likely they will be revisited in the not-so-distant future. 

The government had expected to raise approximately BRL5 billion specifically from the retrospective tax programme.  

Notably, this would have been equivalent to three years of increased gambling tax revenue.  

With such a significant revenue stream on the table for the government, stakeholders expect the government will review similar opportunities again.  

The matter has been one of the key focuses of the GTI-Bets, a working group created in January between the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets and the Federal Revenue Service (RFB) which aims to ensure the licensed sector is meeting its tax requirements. 

Robinson Barreirinhas, special secretary of the RFB, told the parliamentary inquiry commission on betting in March that the government should seek to recover taxes that went unpaid in the grey market. 

Brazilian iGaming expert Elvis Lourenço believes retroactive tax will be revisited.

“Politically, the [failure of PM 1,303] signals limited congressional appetite for a fast-track fiscal package tying betting taxation to broader revenue measures,” he tells iGB. 

“Expect the government to reframe or refile elements in a new bill/MP, but timing is uncertain.”

Last year, the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp added PHP12.7 billion (US$219 billion) to government coffers. That made Pagcor the third largest contributor to the national budget after the Landbank of the Philippines (PHP33.5 billion) and the Philippines Central Bank (PHP18.9 billion).

On 16 September, the DOF honoured government-controlled or government-operated corporations with certificates of recognition. At a ceremony at Malacañang Palace, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto thanked the regulator for helping to “improve public services without asking ordinary Filipinos to carry the burden of new taxes. When we set a higher bar for dividend remittances, you not only responded, but exceeded expectations.”

Last year, Pagcor posted a record PHP112 billion in gaming revenue, spurred by the growth of online gambling.

Pagcor Chairman and CEO Alejandro Tengco called the award “a meaningful affirmation of Pagcor’s steadfast commitment to nation-building and fiscal responsibility. Each peso we remit to the national treasury reflects the dedication of our workforce and the trust placed in us by the Filipino people.”

He called Pagcor “a reliable partner … in strengthening our country’s fiscal position”.

Funding the fight against illegal iGaming

Pagcor has already earmarked millions of pesos to the war on illegal gaming.

On 29 September, Tengco presented a PHP25 million promissory check to the National Bureau of Investigation, which leads the fight against black-market providers including Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations. In July 2024, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr banned POGOs for fronting online scams. POGOs were also implicated in money laundering and human trafficking.

The Philippine SunStar called Tengco’s “mock check” the first tranche of an annual PHP50 million commitment to the National Bureau of Investigation. It “underscores the shared responsibility of Pagcor and the NBI in promoting lawful, fair and responsible gaming in the Philippines”, said Tengco. “Illegal gambling operators undermine our laws, exploit our people and put our communities at risk. Working hand in hand with the NBI, we are sending a strong message. We will not allow unlawful gaming practises to persist.”

NBI Director Jaime Santiago said the funds “will defray the cost of food and expenses for POGO detainees”, foreign workers still awaiting deportation. The allocation will also “support the bureau’s legitimate operations against illegal gaming activities”.

Of Pagcor’s total dividends, PHP8.45 billion represents the required 50% government share of the body’s net income. The remaining PHP4.22 billion represents a 25% advance that may be applied to future obligations. The DOF has also asked government-operated corporations to increase their dividends by 25% to increase non-tax revenues.

Before the vote took place, a previous preliminary measure to increase gambling tax to 18% of GGR was hastily removed from the bill.

The government expects to raise around BRL5 billion ($560 million) from the retroactive tax programme, the equivalent of three years of revenue if the tax rate were to increase to 18%.

Heading into this week, the regulated betting market in Brazil had been prepared for the worst as PM 1,303, which contained the proposals for the 50% tax rate increase, awaited approval.

But the bill’s rapporteur, Carlos Zarattini, presented last minute amendments to PM 1,303 ahead of the vote, including removing the tax rate increase, which some believe did not have enough support to pass through Congress.

However, Zarattini’s amendments also included the creation of the Special Regime for the Regularisation of Exchange and Tax Assets (RERCT Litígio Zero Bets), which would seek to retrospectively tax operators for their activities prior to regulation on 1 January.

Vote approved by 13 to 12

On Tuesday, the amended PM 1,303 was approved by just a single vote in 25, with the bill now headed to both houses of Congress for a second vote, which is expected on Wednesday.

The approval followed a day of political negotiations, including a meeting with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad.

If the text doesn’t receive approval by the Senate and Chamber of Deputies by the end of Wednesday, the bill will lose its validity.

This means operators would go back to paying the 12% GGR tax rate enforced before the provisional measure was introduced in June.

Alongside the changes to the tax proposal, Zarattini’s amendments also included a clampdown on illegal operators.

Under the amendments, internet service providers will have 48 business hours to suspend content flagged as illegal gambling.

Brazil retrospective gambling tax will be ‘voluntary’

Notably, the bill said the retrospective tax requirement (RERCT Litígio Zero Bets) would apply a 15% tax rate on gambling activities between 2014 and 2024. It would also include a 15% fine.

Brazilian iGaming expert Elvis Lourenço explains to iGB that this means that operators would have to pay 15% income tax on the value of any online gambling assets they owned between 2014 and 31 December 2024, the day before the licensed market was launched.

Lourenço says operators would also be subjected to a fine equal to the tax rate, for operating in the grey market. This would lead to an effective total tax charge of 30%.

However, participation in the scheme is voluntary and licensed operators will have 90 days from the publication of the text to join the programme. This must be done through a voluntary declaration of assets.

“We’ve done everything we can to ensure that the funds from bets, which weren’t paid under the previous administration, now reach the public coffers,” Zarattini said following the vote’s approval.

A working group in August estimated that the retrospective tax scheme could raise up to $2.3 billion for government coffers.

Why would Brazil betting operators join the programme?

The voluntary nature of the retrospective tax programme may raise questions over why licensed operators would choose to join.

Udo Seckelmann, head of gambling & crypto at Brazilian law firm Bichara e Motta Advogados, tells iGB it could offer legal certainty for Brazil betting operators moving forwards, helping them to avoid prolonged tax disputes with the government.

“Voluntary participation might limit future liabilities, demonstrate good faith toward regulators and stabilise relationships with authorities,” Seckelmann tells iGB.

“However, many operators may question why they should pay retroactive taxes at all, since they entered the market under different legal and fiscal rules.”

Lourenço agrees it could offer licensed operators a pathway to legitimising past undeclared assets or profits, although he believes operators who deem retrospective taxes to be unconstitutional could threaten legal challenges rather than joining the programme.

Lourenço warns the proposal is still subject to political negotiations, with the potential for approval or further amendments, as well as the lapsing of the bill altogether.

Do operators win or lose from the amendments?

While the removal of the tax rise is a positive for operators, those companies that operated prior to regulation may feel uneasy about reporting prior undeclared assets.

Seckelmann suggested the proposal could raise concerns among those that entered the market under clearly defined tax expectations, which made no mention of this policy.

“Applying retrospective taxation could undermine legal certainty and investor confidence, discouraging compliance and future investment,” Seckelmann adds.

“A fair and forward-looking approach would be far more beneficial for the development of Brazil’s regulated betting market.”

On the other hand, Lourenço feels the amendments bring “greater clarity and predictability” to the Brazilian market, which is a positive development in terms of regulatory stability.

“For operators that generated profits in the pre-regulation period, it provides a clear voluntary route to settle potential liabilities,” Lourenço says.

“For those that operated at a loss or break-even, there may be little or no taxable base to declare, making the programme less relevant.

“Separately, operators that consider any retroactive taxation unconstitutional retain the option to litigate.”

If PM 1,303 passes, Seckelmann says he hopes the industry will actively participate in public discussions to ensure the measures are fairly implemented.

“If the PM is approved with such proposal, operators should analyse the fiscal impact, engage with industry associations and prepare for regulatory or judicial developments,” Seckelmann declares.

In September, Latvia’s government announced plans to bring forward planned gambling tax increases by 12 months to 1 January 2026. The higher rates were originally set to commence on New Year’s Day 2027, under plans approved in December 2024.

The increases would see tax on interactive gambling and telephone-based betting revenue in Latvia rise from 12% to 15% of GGR and 15% to 18%, respectively.

Annual gaming machine taxes would rise from €6,204 to €7,440. In addition, contributions on roulette, card and craps tables would increase from €33,696 to €40,440 per year.

The Ministry of Finance estimated the tax increases would raise an additional €9.2 million. However, this has been called into question by the LLAB. The body said tax income in Latvia would fall as a result of the higher rates.

Concerns over gambling venues

This decline, it said, would be due to the closing of venues that would not be able to cope with increased taxes. It forecast over 20 gaming halls and 10 card or roulette tables could close in 2026. In turn, this could lead to a tax deficit of €2.5 million ($2.9 million).

The LLAB also noted how gambling tax in Latvia had already increased recently, rising 20% in early 2024. This, it said, led to the closure of 24 gambling halls, and the association warned that this number would increase should taxes rise again.

“By raising the tax rates on gaming halls and machines, the promised budget increase will not happen,” said Juris Celmārs, representative of the LLAB and chairman of SIA Olympic Casino Latvia. “On the contrary, budget revenue will decrease.”

LLAB hits at ‘misleading’ tax forecasts in Latvia

The LLAB highlighted how the gambling tax increase had been brought forward without consultation with the industry. In addition, it accused the government of making “misleading” forecasts about the expected impact of higher tax rates.

“Not only are the principles of good governance not followed, but misleading forecasts have also been made about the impact of tax changes on budget revenues,” the LLAB said.

“They were made without taking into account market rules and trends: a decrease in turnover in the land-based segment and a significant drop in the number of gambling halls.”

Going into more detail on the expected impact of tax hikes, the LLAB noted how the number of gambling halls in Latvia had fallen by more than 70% in the past 20 years. In 2005, there were 327 halls, whereas by June this year, only 168 remained.

Alongside this has been a drop in slot machine numbers, with the LLAB saying this is “consistently decreasing”.  Some 4,916 machines were active in January 2024, although this fell to 4,037 by September of this year.

Lower venue and machine numbers, the LLAB said, has also had an impact on revenue from the land-based sector. It said machine revenue fell 12% in H1 this year, to €55 million.

It was a similar story for gaming tables, the organisation said. Revenue from games such as roulette and blackjack dropped 12.5% year-on-year in H1 to €4.7 million.

The Latvian government is trying to raise €565 million in additional funds for security, family support and education in the budget for 2026. A package of draft laws relating to the budget – including the gambling tax increases – will be submitted to parliament for approval on 15 October.

Concerns over lower tax come after similar changes were implemented in the Dutch market, with data suggesting this could lead to a drop in tax income. In August, figures from the Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers (VNLOK) trade body showed gross gaming revenue in the first half of 2025 will be down 25% compared to last year.

As such, tax revenue will be at 83% of the revenue collected from the same period in 2024, despite a 4% tax increase to 34.2% of GGR from 1 January. The rate for operators is set increase further to 37.8% of GGR tax from 1 January 2026.

Back in June, the Brazil government published a provisional measure raising the tax on operators to 18% of GGR, from the previous 12%.

PM No 1,303 is set to be voted upon by the provisional measure’s committee on Tuesday, when politicians will decide whether to make the tax rise permanent.

The vote was supposed to take place last week but was twice postponed. The deadline for the tax to be approved by the committee and the Senate and Chamber of Deputies is this Wednesday.

The tax increase has caused widespread concern among the industry and, ahead of Tuesday’s vote, the IBJR has again warned that the tax rise risks boosting black market activity.

This could lead to hugely damaging consequences for players, who will not receive the same levels of protection in the black market as they do from the licensed operators who follow Brazil’s regulations.

The IBJR assesses PM 1,303 “exposes not only the sector, but also bettors to increasing risks of migration to clandestine operators”.

The association is also calling for digital platforms such as social networks and search engines to take a harder stance on illegal betting sites, with the “same rigour already applied to other illicit content”.

Tax rise risks affecting investment into Brazil’s betting sector

Additionally, the IBJR believes the 50% rise in the tax rate at such an early stage of Brazil’s regulated betting sector will lead to hesitation regarding investment into the market.

Brazil’s licensed betting sector launched on 1 January and, alongside this tax rise, the government is also weighing up whether to implement further restrictions on advertising.

“Abruptly changing taxation, increasing the contribution rate on gross revenue from 12% to 18% just eight months after the regulation was enacted, creates legal uncertainty, undermining the confidence of companies that have invested in the country,” the IBJR said.

“This instability threatens not only the continuity of operations but also the credibility of the business environment in Brazil.”

IBJR searching for new executive president

In September, the IBJR announced that its executive president Fernando Vieira was leaving his role in pursuit of a new professional opportunity.

Vieira had been in the role since March, having first joined the IBJR in October 2024.

Over his tenure, Vieira conducted important work in fighting the black market, which is often identified as the primary concern by licensed betting operators in Brazil.

The IBJR praised Vieira for his “decisive contributions” and the trade body is now searching for his successor.

André Gelfi, one of the IBJR’s founders and managing partner of Betsson Group in Brazil, is serving as interim executive president following Vieira’s departure.

National regulator l’Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) said revenue was ahead of the €5.5 billion in the same period last year. The figures did not include land-based casinos and gaming clubs as these results were published separately.  

Gambling revenue in France has grown steadily year-on-year in H1 during the past few years. This has been partly due to growth in the online gambling sector, with revenue rising again in H1, by 6% to €1.4 billion. However, the ANJ said this increase “masks” certain trends in the market.

Double-digit growth for online sports betting in France

Online sports betting revenue jumped 10% year-on-year to €961 million, helped by a 15% rise in stakes to €6 billion. Unique player accounts also climbed 10% during the half.

The ANJ noted that this was despite the lack of a major, global sports event in H1 this year. In 2024, H1 included the early stages of football’s Euro 2024 football tournament, where in the same period this year, there was no such competition.

Incidentally, football remained the most popular sport among players in France, drawing 52% of all online bets. Tennis followed with 26%, then basketball on 9% and rugby 2%. The remaining 11% of wagers were split between other sports.

However, as noted by ANJ, this growth was not apparent within other areas of the online gambling market. Internet poker revenue declined 4% to €246 million. Cash game poker revenue was 15% lower at €47 million although other formats remained steady. The overall decline also came despite a 10% rise in unique players, which ANJ said was helped by cross-selling the product.

Elsewhere, online horse racing betting revenue was level at €174 million. Stakes here were 1% higher at €795 million but grew at a slower rate than in H1 of the previous two years. It was also noted that unique online horse racing players fell 3% year-on-year.

FDJ H1 revenue tops €3.5 billion after Kindred acquisition

ANJ also published separate figures for La Française des Jeux (FDJ), which completed its acquisition of Kindred Group in October last year. This helped push revenue up 19% in H1 to €4.4 billion.

Sports betting remained its primary source of revenue at €3.5 billion, up 4% on the previous year. However, driven by the Kindred acquisition, online betting and gaming revenue hiked 458% to €703 million. International lottery revenue for the period declined by 9% to €168 million.

Finally, ANJ referenced Pari Mutuel Urbain (PMU), which, like FDJ, had its results posted separately. In H1, revenue at PMU topped €830 million, which was 2.6% behind the same period in 2024. Stakes were also down 4.2% to €3.2 billion.

PMU had a tougher time in the first quarter, during which revenue dropped 4% and stakes 5.5%. However, it saw some level of revenue in Q2, although revenue was still down 1.3% and wagers 3%.

GGR was up 6% over September 2024, missing the analyst consensus of 9%. The figure was down 17.5% from August, when casinos generated a post-pandemic high of MOP22.15 billion.

September is typically a slower month in Macau following the peak July-August vacation season – so much so that the local government kicked off a 13-week city-wide stimulus campaign to offset the expected slump. The campaign, from 1 September to 30 November, drives consumer spending by offering residents a chance to win e-vouchers when they make purchases at participating businesses.

Another inhibiting factor: Typhoon Ragasa, the super-storm that closed casinos for more than 30 hours on 24-25 September. So far this year, September ranks as the second-lowest month for GGR in 2025 behind January. Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research Partners noted the impact of the typhoon, which “likely impacted growth by ~6%-7% (12%-13% growth would have been likely)”.

But hopes are high for the Golden Week holiday, which began with National Day on Wednesday.

Macau revs up for Golden Week visitation

The Macau Government Tourism Office projects that 1.2 million people will visit the city for the eight-day celebration. Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau estimate Macau casinos could generate daily GGR of MOP1.05 billion during the holiday.

That momentum could continue beyond Golden Week on the strength of entertainment and other special events like the NBA China Games, being held 10-12 October at the Venetian Macao. The presentation games will pit the Brooklyn Nets against the Phoenix Suns, with a special appearance by hoops great Shaquille O’Neal.

“Growth should be driven by increased marketing and, importantly, continued ease of money outflows along with robust visa issuance,” Umansky wrote. “Continued entertainment events will further help support demand.”

Indicators suggest growth into 2026-27

A US-China trade deal, which reportedly could be struck by November, could have a trickle-down effect on Macau, wrote Umansky. It would “further boost consumer confidence and willingness to spend and travel to Macau. And any improvement in China consumer confidence would help drive overnight base mass recovery.”

Seaport expects a 13% GGR increase in October and full-year growth of 8.4%, with 12.4% growth in the fourth quarter compared to 8.3% in the first half. It further forecasts 7% annual growth in 2026-2027, “helped by hotel occupancy, a stronger base mass recovery, continued money flow ease and burgeoning consumer confidence”.

Singapore-based PvX Capital also contributed to the financing round. Midnite’s funding was provided via a specialised user acquisition financing strategy. This is meant to help Midnite invest in growth initiatives like talent acquisition and product development.  

The vehicle, dubbed a House Advantage Fund (HAF), is a direct lending fund managed by Discerning Capital. Midnite CEO Nick Wright said it could “triple down on performance and brand marketing campaigns, while preserving cash for innovation and expansion”.  

The use of a credit facility should remove the risk of unnecessary dilution when scaling the business at speed.  

“The flexibility of the House Advantage structure means we can pursue our long-term strategy with greater conviction and fewer trade-offs,” Wright said in a statement on Wednesday.  

“This arrangement also signifies the strength of the partnership Midnite has with Discerning Capital. The confidence the team has in what we are doing at Midnite allows us to strive for continued growth and execute our strategy to disrupt the gaming industry for good.”  

Midnite closed $10m series B in April

Midnite closed its $10 million series B round in April. This was led by Discerning Capital, the Raine Group and Play Ventures, with additional investment from Venrex and Big Bets. At the time, its total capital raised was over $35 million.  

Its UK sportsbook was launched in 2018 by former daily fantasy sports platform Dribble founders, partnered with Sky Bet. Horse race betting and iGaming were added to the product portfolio in 2023. The operator has grown its team from 60 to 150 in 12 months.  

It operates its betting and iGaming platform entirely in-house and has licences in both the UK and Ireland.  

“For too long, the growth trajectory of online wagering operators has been constrained by the limitations of traditional venture capital or credit, which is hard to obtain across the broader gaming ecosystem,” Discerning Capital managing partner Davis Catlins said of the deal.  

“By tying capital deployment to actual marketing performance, we unlock sustainable, aggressive scale without forcing operators into unnecessary equity dilution or onerous repayment structures. This credit facility sets a new benchmark for how ambitious firms in our sector can finance growth.” 

Reeves made the comments at the Labour Annual Conference after delivering a speech on the penultimate day of the event this weekend. While she did not reference gambling directly during her speech, Reeves hinted in an interview with ITV that gambling tax could be on the rise.

However, she made no indication as to what the increase may look like.

The chancellor is under pressure to raise additional funds to support wider plans, including reducing government borrowing. While she has already implemented some changes, she and the government require more funds, with gambling seemingly sounded out as a target area.

“I do think there’s a case for gambling firms paying more,” Reeves told ITV. “On a personal level, I’ve never bet in my life. They make an important contribution to the economy, but they should pay their fair share of taxes. We’ll make sure that happens.”

An update from the government is expected in the upcoming autumn budget on 26 November.

What could the rejigged gambling tax look like?

Talk of an increase in gambling tax has been rife for most of 2025. In April, the government put forward an initial proposal for a single rate for all remote gambling. This would replace the current, three-banded tax rate system.

However, the proposal has drawn criticism from various quarters. Concerns include the impact of harmonisation on wider issues such as risk and harm and the potential demise of the horse racing sector which relies heavily on the betting sector.

The sector has said increased taxes could hit smaller operators and drive black market activity as consumers seek out cheaper and more innovative options.

Meanwhile, a group of over 100 Labour MPs has also urged against grouping all remote gambling tax under one rate. Writing to the chancellor, the MPs have instead called for a “targeted” levy on online gambling operators active in the UK.

“A single, undifferentiated tax regime risks removing important fiscal levers that currently incentivise lower risk product design and behaviour. It would also weaken the broader public health goal of reducing gambling-related harm; an objective to which this government has rightly committed,” MPs said.

While the MPs said gambling in the UK is “lightly taxed” at 21% of gross gaming yield (GGY), they did not make a suggestion on how much tax should be paid. However, they did make reference to the Social Market Foundation’s (SMF) suggestion.

In July, the SMF proposed raising Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 50%. This, it said, would bring the UK more in line with other jurisdictions across Europe and the US, where online gambling tax rates reach 50% or more.

Industry bodies hit out at higher tax plans

Unsurprisingly, the industry has not responded kindly to the proposals to increase gambling tax. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) slammed the plans put forward by the MPs as “short-sighted”, highlighting the negative impact this could have on the industry.

CEO Grainne Hurst said while she sympathised with Reeves, she cautioned against what she described as a “quick fix” policy in increasing gambling tax. She also said further tax rises risk “degrading” the offer of regulated gambling to a point that customers could turn to the black market.

Increases in tax would be in addition to the new statutory levy, which came into effect on 6 April this year.

Operators currently pay varying tax rates, based on GGY. These depend on the types of gambling offered by an operator and whether they are online or land-based. Levy rates will range from 0.1%, primarily covering land-based activity, up to 1.1% for operations offering online casino.

The Gambling Commission warned operators that do not comply with rules for the statutory levy, including making payments on time, could have their licence revoked.

To kick things off, Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison have a frank exchange of views on Yolo Group’s regulated market pivot. This hinges on whether the move gives the crytpo giant an unfair advantage thanks to its scale and revenue, or simply follows an ongoing industry cycle.  

Yolo Group, Singapore integrated resorts and Golden Matrix discussed on Apple Podcasts

Singapore integrated resorts: Sands on the rise, Genting struggles 

As promised, focus then turns to Singapore integrated resorts where business is booming for Las Vegas Sands’ Marina Bay Sands.  

Genting’s Resorts World Sentosa, on the other hand, is struggling. Will a host of non-gaming amenities, including a Minions theme park, help turn things around? And does Robin look like a Minion as Ed claims? 

There’s also still time to tackle Golden Matrix’s B2C pivot through the acqusition of Meridianbet and the usual chatter about how Ed’s various sports teams continue to underperform.  

The Nevada Gaming Control Board announced on Friday that the state reaped $1.22 billion in gross gaming revenue, a 5.5% increase over last August. After a slow FY25 snapped a streak of three straight fiscal year records, Nevada is about 5% ahead of last year’s pace.

Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and surrounding areas, was up 5% YoY as a whole. However, the performance of individual sectors is indicating that the Las Vegas Strip is reclaiming its dominance over the locals market, which enjoyed massive success over the last 18 months as a value proposition to the increasingly costly Strip experience.

On the Strip, America’s gaming capital was also in the 5% growth club, jumping to GGR of $679.3 million. Its year-to-date performance is coincidentally also up 5%. Conversely, the locals market fell 1% to $142.3 million, and is down 2% for the fiscal year, the worst of the state’s major markets. For much of 2024 and early 2025, those roles had been reversed.

Baccarat performance on the Strip has become the key driver for the region and, subsequently, the state. In August, the Strip won $114.4 million on the game, a 51% upswing YoY. That is more than any state sector generated as a whole, except for the Las Vegas locals market. It has become common to see massive month-to-month swings in baccarat; for the previous three months, the Strip is up 29% on the game, but for the previous 12 it is down 3%.

Visitation numbers continue to slide in 2025

While the increasing gaming revenue is a positive sign for the industry, the continued lag in Las Vegas tourism is what has captured national headlines for months.

According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, the city’s visitor volume was down 6.7% to 3.1 million in August. Every month in 2025 has seen a YoY visitor decrease of at least 1%, with most ranging from 5%-10% or more. The last increase of more than 1% came in September 2024.

Convention attendance, which had been the lone bright spot for the region this year, was also down 8% because of rotating show schedules. However, big upcoming shows like the Global Gaming Expo in October, the Consumer Electronics Show in January and the industrial Con/Agg show in March will boost future totals.

Harry Reid International Airport announced on Wednesday that domestic and international air traffic through Las Vegas declined 6% and 3.7% in August, respectively. The latter has been the biggest point of concern for stakeholders, especially as US President Donald Trump continues to ruffle feathers with aggressive tariff hikes and foreign policy.

Historically a top feeder market, Canada has been especially affected, seemingly in part from Trump’s “51st state” comments earlier this year. Traffic from WestJet and Air Canada plummeted 33% and 40% in August, respectively. Mexican airlines like Volaris and VivaAerobus performed better by comparison, but this was offset by huge struggles domestically from bankrupt budget carrier Spirit Airlines (down 46%).

Sin City’s glass half-full or half-empty?

The confluence of business and travel factors make it increasingly difficult to analyse Las Vegas.

On one hand, gaming revenue is up and businesses are doing well, while most operators posted solid Q2 results with optimistic future outlooks. The AGEM Index, an index of stocks from 10 leading gaming suppliers, was up 5% month-over-month in August and 32% YoY.

Additionally, numerous ongoing projects are expected to contribute to future success. The former Mirage will reopen as the Hard Rock Las Vegas in 2027 and add more than 3,500 rooms back to the Strip.

Work has begun for the Las Vegas A’s new Major League Baseball stadium on the Strip, with another resort primed for the same lot. The third annual Las Vegas Grand Prix, a catalyst international Formula 1 racing event, returns in November. Off the Strip, locals-focused operators are enjoying their best stretch of performance in several years.

On the flip side, the factors that fuelled the Las Vegas tourism slide do not appear to be fading. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates one time in 2025 and cautioned against future cuts. On Friday, the personal consumption expenditures price index reported a 2.7% YoY increase in August, the highest monthly increase since February.

Operationally, casinos are paying markedly higher labour costs as new Culinary Union contracts take effect this year. Overall, union wages have gone up 10% and will increase by 32% over the life of the contracts. Most are also now leasing their real estate from REITs and are subject to annually increasing rents.

LVCVA looks to reinvigorate Las Vegas tourism

While CEOs and local officials largely downplayed these concerns earlier this year, most now acknowledge at least some uncertainty for Las Vegas. However, MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle said at a recent Bank of America conference that it is on the industry to change the narrative.

“To the idea that Las Vegas is dead, I would say this: We are putting a push on, because we let the narrative get away from us, in the context of value,” Hornbuckle said. “So we are out pushing that Las Vegas is a huge [value] and remains a huge value for consumers at all levels.”

The LVCVA launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign to mixed reviews and is rolling out new deals. This week was the agency’s first-ever city-wide promotional discount, the “Fabulous 5-Day Sale”. Under the programme, operators and businesses from around the city pledged more than 100 deals.

In recent weeks, agency reps also travelled to Canada in the hope of coaxing would-be guests to come back to Sin City. LVCVA CEO Steve Hill said at the time that a lot of Canadians “are not happy with us right now” and that “we understand they may not be ready” to return. Overall, though, Hill is leading the optimism for the region.

“I’m betting on Vegas,” Hill said in August, per CDC Gaming. “Las Vegas is still the Entertainment Capital of the World. We’re all confident in the future of this city. We’ve met over the last couple of weeks with virtually every property and we’re excited about what we’re hearing. The city is taking steps to address (the downturn).”

Revenue was comfortably higher than the DKK562 million reported in July last year. Figures from regulator Spillemyndigheden showed this return also surpassed June this year by 8.4%.

Breaking down the monthly performance, online casino drew the most revenue in July at DKK349 million. This was 20.5% more than in the same month last year.

Online slots were by far the biggest draw for users, generating DKK291.7 million in revenue. Blackjack followed with DKK22.2 million, then roulette with DKK16.8 million, with other revenue split across bingo, poker and other games.

Meanwhile, sports betting bounced back from two consecutive months of decline to post DKK159 million in revenue, beating last year by 6.0%. Some DKK114.5 million came from mobile betting, DKK28.1 million from desktop computers and DK16.8 million from retail locations.

Steady month for land-based gambling in Denmark

On the subject of land-based activity, physical slot machine revenue amounted to DKK90 million. This was only marginally lower than last year’s DKK92 million haul.

Spillemyndigheden said 80.1% of all slot machine revenue came from terminals located in gambling halls. The remaining 19.9% came from machines placed inside restaurants.

Elsewhere, land-based casino revenue increased 18.8% year-on-year to DK33 million. The remaining DKK2 million came from land-based bingo activities.

Self-exclusion rates edge up during August

In terms of self-exclusion, the regulator said that, by the end of August, 62,577 people had signed up with the country’s ROFUS scheme. This would suggest that around 170 players opted to self-exclude during the month.

Of those who have registered with ROFUS, 65.0% have opted for permanent exclusion from gambling. Men account for 78.2% of all sign-ups, compared to women at 21.3%.

Some 101 MPs – nearly half of Labour’s backbenchers – signed a letter asserting there is a “compelling” case for a “targeted levy on harmful online gambling products”. The letter, written by MPs Alex Ballinger and Beccy Cooper of the All Party Parliamentary Group for Gambling Reform, suggested that the money raised should be used to scrap the two-child benefit cap.

Ballinger and Cooper called on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to introduce changes recommended by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown made the same call last month.

What gambling tax changes does the IPPR propose?

The IPPR proposes increasing the tax rate on gross gambling yield, with Remote Gambling Duty lifted from 21% to 50%. Machine Games Duty on cash-prize slot machines would rise from 20% to 50% under its proposal, while General Betting Duty on sports betting, online or in betting shops, excluding horse racing, would rise from 15% to 30%.

The IPPR estimates these measures would together raise an extra £3.2 billion ($4.3 billion) in 2026-27 – enough to remove the cap that allows families to claim benefits only for their first two children. The think tank said this would lift 500,000 children out of poverty.

“No child should be growing up in poverty while gambling companies continue to enjoy record profits,” Ballinger wrote. “Harms from gambling place a huge burden on our public services, costing the exchequer over £1bn a year.

“It’s time to confront these excessive profits, reduce gambling-related harm, tackle poverty and ensure gambling is taxed fairly.”

The Betting and Gaming Council, which represents the industry, said increasing taxes on the licensed sector would only strengthen black market operators.

In a statement, a spokesperson said: “We strongly oppose proposals to raise taxes on the regulated betting and gaming industry. Such a move would be short-sighted, harming jobs, investment and sports funding, while failing to deliver more revenue.

“Every time the treasury squeezes the regulated sector, it strengthens the unsafe black market, which pays no tax, offers no consumer protection and puts UK jobs and growth at risk.”

Dutch rate hike has led to tax revenue decline

Supporters of the industry also point to international examples. A recent increase in gross gambling revenue rates in the Netherlands has triggered a decline in revenue collected by that nation’s exchequer. After a rise from 30.5% to 34.2% was introduced in January, regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) released a report in August revealing the measure will likely result in a €40 million drop in iGaming revenue. This was in contrast to government forecasts of a €100 million rise in GGR for 2025.

Earlier this month, Dutch State Secretary for Taxation Eugène Heijnen ruled out introducing a new policy to make up for an expected decline in online gambling revenue due to tax increases.

Speaking in parliament, he said: “It is true that the estimate for revenue has been revised downwards this year. This picture is broadly consistent with the expectations communicated by the KSA in a recent report.”

The Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers trade body suggested the revenue fall was due to several new restrictive measures enacted over the last year. These include bans on untargeted advertising and sponsorships, new deposit limits and the increased tax burden. It called for the government to act on this and revise the current tax framework.

The online betting group posted gross betting and gaming revenue of €25.3m ($27.5m) for the six months to 30 June 2025. This was almost unchanged from the prior year. Net gaming revenue of €19.7m was down slightly, by 2.5%, as higher levies took effect.

Profitability improved despite stagnant sales. EBITDA before special items rose to €3m, compared with €1.2m last year, while net profit almost tripled to €1.8m.

Management credited lower marketing costs, which fell as there wasn’t a major summer football tournament. Indeed, advertising expenses – including marketing and bonuses – were down 20.5% to €8.2m.

Bet-at-home’s European market concerns

The headline numbers mask a more complex story about the operator’s two core markets.

In Austria, a steep increase in the betting levy from 2% to 5% of stakes took effect on 1 April, triggering an immediate decline in activity.

Management responded by beginning to pass on the costs to customers in June, but this move risks eroding competitiveness since several rivals have absorbed the increase themselves.

The longer-term picture in Austria is also uncertain. Austria’s new coalition agreement includes language about a “further development of the gambling monopoly”, which could open the door to the eventual liberalisation of the online sector. For now, the state monopoly remains in place, with licensed foreign operators continuing to serve Austrian customers in a grey-market environment, but the trajectory of reform could materially alter market conditions over the coming years.

Regulatory challenges in Germany

Germany remains Bet-at-home’s largest market, but the regulatory environment there continues to generate friction. A recent report by the German Sports Betting Association (DSWV) concluded that the regulated market is facing a “serious structural problem,” with as much as a quarter of gambling activity still channelled through unlicensed operators.

The DSWV pointed to restrictive measures such as the €1,000 monthly deposit cap, limits on bet types and onerous checks on player affordability as key drivers of consumer flight to the black market.

Bet-at-home has repeatedly stressed that while regulation is necessary, overly tight rules undermine licensed operators and threaten the policy objective of keeping play within the legal framework.

The company did secure licence renewals in Germany through to 2027 and was permitted to add certain international friendlies to its sportsbook this year, but management said the broader constraints remain a drag on revenue potential.

Managing legacy risks

Beyond its core markets, Bet-at-home continues to manage legacy risks, including the liquidation of its former Maltese subsidiary. While the company expects some recovery from that process, ongoing disputes over the enforceability of customer claims and European scrutiny of Malta’s legal framework have added uncertainty. Legal challenges also persist in Germany and Austria, where customers are seeking reimbursement of historical gambling losses, although management considers the current financial exposure to be contained.

Looking ahead, the group maintained full-year guidance for gross betting and gaming revenue in the range of €46m to €54m, with EBITDA numbers before special items coming in between break-even and €4m.

The wide range reflects the unpredictability of regulatory and tax developments across its footprint. Management continues to emphasise efficiency, technology investment and brand visibility as levers for navigating the challenging landscape, but acknowledged that external pressures will remain the decisive factor in performance.

As confirmed by draft legislation, the tax increases were originally scheduled to commence on New Year’s Day 2027, under plans approved in December 2024. However, the timeline has been shortened following a broader spending review by ministers last month.

The government is also accelerating plans to close down the country’s Lottery and Gambling Supervision Inspectorate (IAUI). The regulator will be consolidated into Latvia’s State Revenue Service (SRS) on 1 April – three months earlier than initially expected.

Latvia gambling tax hiked to 18%

From 1 January, Latvia’s gambling taxes on interactive gambling and telephone-based betting revenues will increase from 12% to 15% of GGR and 15% to 18% respectively.

Annual gaming machine taxes will rise from €6,204 to €7,440. Meanwhile, contributions on roulette, card and craps tables will increase from €33,696 to €40,440 per year.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that Latvia’s gambling tax increases will raise €9.2 million. Of that total, €175,000 will be handed to municipalities, with the rest to be pumped into the state budget.

Cost savings

Meanwhile, according to Finance Minister Arvils Ašeradens, the earlier-than-planned closure of IAUA will bring several benefits, including administrative cost savings.

Until the start of April, Latvia’s gambling industry will continue to be overseen by two regulators. The IAUI focuses on regulatory compliance and oversees licensing matters, while the SRS is responsible for tax issues.

However, their responsibilities overlap in several areas. Both have the power to enforce sanctions, conduct investigations and implement anti-money laundering measures.

“The integration of gambling oversight into the SRS will allow us to establish unified management faster, make better use of our resources and deliver higher-quality services to the public,” Ašeradens said.

Spending review

The decisions on gambling taxes and regulation were taken following a government cabinet meeting in late August. Ministers at the meeting discussed the state budget and spending plans across various areas through to 2029.

The government is trying to raise €565 million in additional funds for security, family support and education in the budget for 2026.

A package of draft laws relating to the budget – including the gambling tax increases – will be submitted to Latvia’s Parliament for approval on 15 October.

Was social casino the precursor to sweepstakes?

We start with a trip down memory lane, to the hazy days of 2012 when land-based operators and suppliers snapped up free-to-play casino operators.

Right to the Source is on Apple Podcasts

Zynga was one of the early pioneers of this boom thanks to Zynga Poker, and even went as far as launching a real-money offering on Facebook. Those days are long past. While it still runs apps such as Zynga Poker and a host of slot offerings, it now sits within Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K publisher Take Two Interactive.

Are there parallels to be drawn between that social casino boom and the rise of sweepstakes today? Don’t be so sure, argues Ed Birkin.

Republic of Congo and Mauritius: Viable regulations, not enough scale?

Next there’s a handbrake turn into two of Africa’s less discussed markets. The Republic of Congo – not the Democratic Republic of Congo, Robin apologises for that error – suffers from the usual hefty tax burdens we have seen across Africa.

Mauritius, meanwhile, has a relatively well-formed market, although a country with a population of 1.26 million people offers limited scope for growth.

All this alongside the usual tangents and diversions in the latest Right to the Source!

Online revenue grew by 14% to £44.2 million ($59.7m) in the 12 months to 11 January 2025. Meanwhile, the UK operator’s retail revenues edged up by 3% to £173m. While total revenue increased from £207 million to £217.2 million, underlying earnings (EBITDA) also improved by 20% from £34.7m to £41.8m.

Buzz Bingo’s holding company, Buzz Venus Group, said that the results were “testament to the company’s omnichannel strategy, as the funnel of retail customers continues to convert to online”.

Customer admissions growth

The company highlighted “strong growth in customer admissions”, with around half of its 175,000 new players “in the last 12 months” being under the age of 35, illustrating continuing momentum in 2025.

So far this year, group revenue is up 8% on last year, with a record number of customers in person and online. Group underlying EBITDA year-to-date has increased by 7% on the previous year, and 2% on a like-for-like basis.

“With more Gen Zs and millennials taking up bingo, customer admissions are in growth and up 3% year-on-year over the last quarter and, despite a very hot summer, this is our biggest quarter on record since before Covid,” Buzz Bingo CEO Dominic Mansour said.

Younger customers influx

The growth in the number of younger customers in recent months is a positive step for a brand that has tried to counter its traditional association with older players by ramping up its omnichannel offering.

In late 2024, Buzz Bingo launched a new omnichannel bingo concept, Big Money Live, to run across its digital platforms and land-based clubs.

According to recent Department of Trust UK player transaction data, Buzz Bingo was the fourth most popular brand among over-50s in Q4 of 2024. It ranked 16th in the list of the most popular gambling brands for under-50s, while competing against iGaming and betting incumbents.

Administrative expenses rise

Additionally, the operator relocated its digital business to Gibraltar last year. At the time, Buzz said the move would bring the operator closer to key suppliers and allow it to pursue international opportunities while supporting omnichannel plans.

Buzz Bingo’s FY 2024 results said the move had led to “operational efficiencies”, although the relocation has inevitably incurred costs.  

Administrative expenses increased from £121.7m to £126.8m in the full-year results, leading to total losses widening from £30.9m to £31.7m. Other expenses in 2024 included the acquisitions of Merkur bingo clubs in Cricklewood and Northampton.

Omnichannel and youth focus

In July, the operator secured a £25 million funding commitment from Barclays and investors to support a multi-year investment plan to modernise Buzz Bingo’s clubs to appeal to younger demographics. Initial work to replace legacy club technology and install new electronic bingo terminals is taking place.

It will continue to focus on growing the customer base by “building on Buzz’s player-centric omnichannel offering”. This will include “an enhanced omnichannel customer loyalty programme”.

The operator added: “The group remains well-positioned to capture the growth opportunity in the bingo market as more and more young players seek out great value leisure experiences in their local communities and online.”

Across European markets, governments are imposing or proposing steep gambling tax hikes on operators, many of which last year contributed €3.8 billion in taxes to the European economy as a whole, according to the European Gaming & Betting Association (EGBA).

In most cases, policymakers have said they are turning to the sector to help plug budgetary holes. And gambling is a seemingly easy target for governments that can play into the public health argument against the industry.  

“Gambling has traditionally been viewed as a good source of relatively painless government revenue. Tax policies in European countries are also increasingly focusing on excise taxation, particularly environmental and public health excise duties, to raise much-needed public revenue,” explains Virve Marionneau, associate professor and tax expert, as well as director of the Centre for Research on Addictions, Control and Governance at Helsinki University. 

However, the returns from these gambling tax policies are uncertain and are likely to negatively affect the broader sector. So, what lies behind the political decision-making? 

Netherlands gambling tax hike impact already being felt

Let’s first take a look at what’s going on in the Netherlands. Lawmakers there approved a sharp increase in gambling tax, from 30.5% to 34.2% of GGR, starting in January 2025, with a further rise to 37.8% in 2026.

The Dutch Treasury had expected an additional €200 million in tax revenue annually, but figures from the licensed Dutch online gambling providers, represented by VNLOK, suggest that GGR in the first half of 2025 will be down 25% compared to the previous year, resulting in a shortfall of €200 million. 

Both VNLOK and the Dutch regulator KSA have expressed concern about the government’s plan for a further tax increase. 

When taxes increase on gambling operators, they often pass additional costs on to their customers. This could manifest in higher betting odds, higher fees or less attractive bonuses and promotions. As a result, players may turn to the more lucrative but also riskier unlicensed market. 

“The tax hike will have a negative impact on our market. Channelisation rates will decrease. We are worried about that, because we believe a strong legal market is key in combating illegal offerings,” Marloes Derks, spokesperson for KSA, tells iGB. 

Despite this, the Dutch government has stated that its tax policy will not change, even though expected revenue is falling short of expectations.

In accordance with budgetary rules, windfalls and shortfalls in tax revenue are reflected in the balance after policy is adopted. Therefore, the revenue shortfall, from this perspective, is not seen as grounds for a compensatory policy, according to State Secretary for Taxation Eugène Heijnen, who addressed the Dutch parliament earlier this month. 

A strategy doomed to fail 

The Dutch tax hike has drawn attention from other markets. 

“As I understand it, the message from Dutch politics is that they consider the concept of channelisation to be irrelevant. They simply ignore it in favour of various moral views on gambling. And then, of course, it becomes easy to raise taxes,” says Gustaf Hoffstedt, secretary general of BOS, the Swedish Trade Association for Online Gambling. 

He observes a trend across Europe of tightening conditions for licensed gambling companies, with tax increases being just one example. 

“An important component of that trend is the lack of interest in how such deteriorations affect the ability of licensed gambling companies to keep out unlicensed competitors,” Hoffstedt says. 

In his home country of Sweden, the Ministry of Finance was expected to raise €50 million a year through an increase in tax from 18% to 22% on GGR, effective from July 2024. But Hoffstedt – who calls the political reasoning behind the tax hike “profit hunger” – believes those figures are more likely to be around €20 million-$40 million. And it will come at a cost, he adds. 

“Reduced channelisation and around a thousand new gambling addicts as a result of the transition from licensed to unlicensed gambling,” he predicts. 

Trend across Europe 

Looking toward Eastern Europe and Tier 2 markets, Romania has imposed a 27% GGR tax on online operators from July 2025, up from 21%, and is also introducing higher licensing fees.

In the Czech Republic, the government increased the GGR tax for online betting, bingo and poker from 23% to 30% in 2024 to fund public spending. 

In Slovakia, where activity in the online casino market rose by almost 30% year-on-year in 2024, Environment Minister Tomáš Taraba has called the gambling industry “profiteers of human misery”. The government has proposed raising the tax rate for online gambling to 30%. 

Meanwhile, in Germany, every euro wagered on slot machines and poker faces a 5.3% levy. Because of this rule, up to 80% of online slot play now takes place with unlicensed operators, estimates the German Online Casino Association. German online casino tax revenue saw a decline of 16% in 2024 and, since 2022, there has been a 47% drop. 

France is already one of Europe’s most expensive markets to operate in, but the government is planning to expand GGR taxation and charges. It aims to generate an additional €1.6 billion in gambling-related revenue. 

“A few European jurisdictions like Malta and Estonia stand out with exceptionally low tax rates to attract onshore gambling operators. Other countries, like France, use high tax rates as a means to control entry to the market. The aim of French gambling policy has been to keep the number of licensees low,” says Marionneau, tax expert from Helsinki University. 

UK gambling tax decision will affect the whole sector 

And then there is the UK – Europe’s biggest market for online gambling – and for a long time, known in the industry as the voice of reason in Europe when it comes to a balanced approach to gambling regulation. However, for the industry, that perception may be about to change.

In April, the UK government proposed bringing the current three-level tax rate system for remote gambling under one consolidated rate. 

The industry has expressed concerns over the changes, believing it could result in all gambling verticals facing a 21% duty.

Several voices are pushing for a much bigger tax increase on the gambling sector. Among them, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). They argue that a tax increase on the sector should be used to help fight the rising child poverty in the UK.

IPPR has recommended increasing remote gaming duty from 21% to 50%, and machine games duty from 20% to 50% of operator profit. General betting duty would rise from 15% to 25%, estimating that this could generate around €1.5 billion. 

The UK government is expected to present its plans in the 2025 autumn budget on 26 November.

UK government sending mixed signals

The UK’s Betting and Gaming Council has called the proposal “reckless” because it will drive players toward the unlicensed market, a claim that IPPR has chosen to dismiss. 

“There appear to be three drivers here: the economy, policy and politics. HM Treasury keeps all taxes under review and we know that it has been looking at online gambling for a while. It may take the view that the online gambling market can sustain higher levels, which will be unresented by the population at large,” says Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus Partners. 

The government is sending mixed signals regarding its attitude toward the gambling industry, and this has raised alarm bells, he says. 

“The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) adheres to the traditional view that gambling is a legitimate pastime that can involve negative health consequences. It therefore favours a balance of freedom and protection. The Department of Health and Social Care, on the other hand, perceives gambling as the ‘new tobacco’ and wishes to do various unspeakable things to it enroute to prohibition.  

“Prudent operators will be looking at how they can mitigate the costs of any tax increases.” 

Whatever happens in the UK will affect the entire market in Europe, says Hoffstedt. 

“The UK, together with Denmark, has been able to show that it is possible to combine high channelisation with high consumer protection. If channelisation in the UK declines in the future, it will negatively affect all gambling markets in Europe.” 

Hoffstedt hopes that governments will eventually recognise the negative consequences. 

“In the end, it becomes obvious to everyone that a gambling market that lacks consumers – when they’ve gone to the unlicensed gambling market – lacks relevance and legitimacy. It is a strategy that is doomed to fail in every jurisdiction that uses it.” 

For the three months to the end of June, gross online gambling revenue amounted to €410.3 million ($484.2 million). Regulator Directorate General for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ) said this surpassed Q2 last year and was 2.8% more than Q1 2025.

Total deposits for the period increased 23.7% to €1.35 billion, with this only marginally lower than Q1. Player withdrawals were also up 28.9% year-on-year to €962.9 million and on par with Q1.

The DGOJ also noted an 11.7% rise in new accounts to 504,853, although this was 11.6% down from Q1. Marketing spend increased 37.1% from last year to €164.5 million, with this also slightly higher than Q1 of this year.

Online casino remains king in Spain

Breaking down the market, online casino was again the primary source of online gambling revenue.

In Q2, revenue from online casino reached €216.4 million, representing 52.7% of the whole market and 26% more than 2024. The DGOJ said this growth was driven by slot machines, where revenue hiked 33.6%.

There was also growth in sports betting, with revenue rising by 18.2% to €171.4 million, or 41.8% of overall revenue. This was also 2.7% more than in the opening quarter of 2025 in Spain.

A further €19.1 million was attributed to online poker, a year-on-year decline of 25.2% and 25.1% behind Q1. Bingo revenue topped €3.4 million, down 6.4% from last year and 6.9% less than Q1 of 2025.

The DGOJ also made reference to gambling defined as “contests” in Spain. However, it said only “very small figures” were reported across both revenue and player spending.

By the end of Q2, a total of 77 operators held licences in Spain. Of these, 64 had at least one active single licence during the period. These included 52 that offered online casino gaming, 42 sports betting, nine poker, four bingo and two contests.

Regulatory issues had caused Betway Africa to reduce its operating business in Nigeria, but the company is now “very excited” about the market’s potential.

This is partly down to increased clarity on regulatory issues, with a November 2024 Supreme Court ruling seemingly ending the conflict between states and the federal government on who should regulate gaming, in favour of the states.

Nigeria’s population of over 235 million is the largest in Africa and sixth largest globally, with a total addressable market of $2.6 billion.

Speaking at Super Group’s investor day last Thursday, Betway Africa CEO Laurence Michel said Nigeria is now ready for “super investment”.

“We’ve been in Nigeria for a while, we do have a profitable business there,” Michel said. “However, we have been a little bit gunshy given some of the regulations.

“We kind of are seeing that the regulatory environment has now improved. Federal versus state has now been cleaned up, and we’re ready to now give it a go.

“We think that we can make a big difference. We think that online, we have the smarts and the wherewithal to give it a full go now, which we’re going to do.”

Super Group looking to consolidate in Africa

Already in podium positions in seven of its eight markets, Betway Africa is setting its sights on future growth in the region.

Betway Africa launched in 2015 and has since enjoyed impressive growth.

This was evidenced by Super Group’s Q2 earnings, where the company announced its Africa and Middle East segment’s revenue grew 38.8% year-on-year to $229 million, accounting for 40% of the group’s total revenue.

But Betway Africa is still eyeing further expansion, beyond its existing markets of South Africa, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Botswana, Tanzania, Ghana and Nigeria.

The company holds a podium position in all of those, bar Nigeria.

 “The upside is enormous,” Michel said. “When Africa thrives, so does our business.

“Africa is a massive opportunity with a total addressable market of $12 billion in locally licensed markets, over 1.5 billion people and some of the fastest-growing populations and economies in the world.

“Our deep local knowledge and expertise and operations are our competitive edge. Our portfolio currently stands in eight countries and the estimated TAM for the rest of Africa that we’re not in is a potential $2.5 billion.”

In its investor day presentation, Super Group highlighted Ethiopia, Angola, Namibia and the Ivory Coast as future prospects for expansion.

Botswana has been a particular success story for Super Group and Betway Africa. Having launched there in February 2025, Betway Africa now holds 95% market share.

“Botswana is a blockbuster for us, our best country launch ever,” Michel stated.

Casino fundamental to Betway Africa’s strategy

Betway Africa wants consistent growth across the African continent, with three main areas of focus: casino and mobile penetration, as well as new market development.

Casino is Betway Africa’s dominant vertical, generating 68% of its net revenue. Casino wagers have increased by 757% since 2022.

Betway Africa’s casino-only Jackpot City brand is currently in four African countries, and has become the seventh biggest brand in South Africa within just 16 months of launching.

The company hopes Jackpot City will soon join the podium positions in South Africa. It’s also planning to launch Jackpot City in Ghana in Q4 this year.

The battle to retain customers

Betway Africa has cemented a strong position in the market and the company is placing real emphasis on maintaining that foothold.

The company has developed a proprietary product platform called Synapse, which has improved the business’ scalability, performance and its ability to quickly deploy features.

Additionally, the company has enriched its live scoring app Betway Scores with sports content, and Michel believes value-adds such as this will help customer retention.

“We know that our business thrives when we retain customers well into the future,” Michel added. “Acquiring customers means nothing if you can’t retain them, and we do.”

Betway Africa’s customer retention was displayed in its H1 GGR, where 93% came from pre-2025 cohorts.

Revenue for the month was 39.5% higher than the same month in 2024, according to the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB). It also beat July this year by 9.8% and was 3.6% ahead of the existing monthly record in May 2025.

Gross iGaming revenue topped $263.3 million, an increase of 33.9%. Gross internet sports betting receipts climbed 79.9% year-on-year to $49.3 million. Data covers both commercial and tribal operators in Michigan.

Total adjusted gross receipts (AGR), which accounts for promotional spend also increased by 45.7% to $281.4 million. AGR from iGaming hiked 39.8% to $247.2 million and sports betting 109.8% to $34.2 million.

As for spending on sports betting, handle for the month stood at $338.9 million, which was 21% more than August 2024. This resulted in a hold of 14.55% based on gross revenue and 10.09% AGR.

FanDuel and MotorCity take the lead in iGaming

As for operators, FanDuel and MotorCity moved into first position in the Michigan iGaming market. The partnership generated $71.1 million in gross revenue and $66.9 million AGR.

MGM and BetMGM, which led in July, slipped to second with $66.6 million and $62.6 million in gross revenue and AGR, respectively. DraftKings and the Bay Mills Indian Community were third with $41.1 million and $38.6 million.

For sports betting, FanDuel and MotorCity kept the lead with $17.8 million in gross receipts and $13.5 million AGR. With a $107.7 million handle, this meant a hold of 16.5% based on gross receipts.

DraftKings placed second with $15.7 million and $9.9 million, with a handle of $103.1 million leaving a 15.25% hold. BetMGM followed with $6.8 million and $4.5 million from $50.7 million for a 13.41% hold.

In terms of tax, monthly state tax was $53.7 million, with $51.6 million from iGaming and $2.1 million sports betting. City of Detroit tax totalled $13.8 million, including $13.2 million from iGaming and $561,471 sports betting Tribal operators paid $6.2 million to governing bodies in August.

August casino revenue dips to $106.9 million

As for the three commercial casinos in Detroit, the MGCB said revenue for August amounted to $106.9 million. This was 5% lower than last year.

Table games and slot machines accounted for $105.7 million of this total, down 4.6% from last year. The other $1.2 million came from sports betting, a year-on-year decline of 26.7%.

MGM Grand Detroit held a 48% market share in August. MotorCity Casino followed on 30%, then Hollywood Casino at Greektown with 22%.

The financing comprises several elements, including a €460 million six-year senior secured term loan agreement with institutional lenders. Also included is €200 million in binding financing commitments for a four-year amortising term loan from a Greek bank consortium.

All funds, Intralot said, will go towards its purchase of the Bally’s division. In July, Intralot struck a deal to acquire Bally’s International Interactive for €2.70 billion in a cash-and-stock transaction.

Closing of the new term financing is subject to certain conditions precedent related to the acquisition and refinancing. In addition, Intralot agreed with the holders that its €130 million retail bond may remain outstanding after the acquisition completes.

What next for Intralot and Bally’s?

By acquiring the Bally’s business, Intralot said this will create an iGaming and lottery leader with €1.1 billion in revenue. The reverse-style merger will also see Bally’s become Intralot’s majority shareholder.

As for Bally’s, the deal will improve its cash reserves as it seeks to fund its land-based casino developments in the US and Australia. Intralot and Bally’s expect the acquisition to complete before the end of 2025.

Should the deal proceed as expected, Bally’s chief executive Robeson Reeves will replace Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos as Intralot CEO. Nikolakopoulos will lead the lottery division, while Intralot Chairman Sokratis Kokkalis and Bally’s Chairman Soohyung Kim will remain on the board.

“This transaction marks a transformative moment for Bally’s as we unite our outstanding gaming and data technology with Intralot’s exceptional expertise in lottery,” Reeves said in July. “Together, we are creating a unique proposition that will pave the way for a new era of innovation and growth across the entire gaming spectrum.”

Intralot and Bally’s target UK growth

In the wake of the acquisition, Intralot reported its financial results for H1. These revealed a mixed performance, with revenue edging up but gross profit declining and a small net loss being posted.

Lottery remained the primary source of revenue, accounting for 53% of all revenue. Sports betting contributed 22%, video lottery terminals 12.8% and IT products and services 12.2%. B2C revenue was higher year-on-year although B2B and B2G performance was more mixed.

Shortly after the results were made public, Intralot hosted its capital markets day. Here, both Nikolakopoulos of Intralot and Reeves from Bally’s spoke, with a focus on how the combined business will work.

Early focus appears to be on the UK, in particular the customer retention of Bally’s within the market. Reeves noted that these areas of expertise would be the driving force for Intralot’s B2C iGaming, sports betting and iLottery expansion.

“We’re very UK dominant. [But] this combination [with Intralot] allows us to spread out our revenue. It’s good and bad being UK dominant, you know? You might say you’re too concentrated. [But] regulation means that you end up with a stable, reliable business,” he told analysts and investors. 

Detailing the increase, Zeal said lottery gross margin had strengthened throughout 2025. It also noted how its Traumhausverlosung social lottery had posted growth, with the operator on track for a better-than-expected performance.

As such, Zeal has forecast posting between €205 million ($241 million) and €215 million in full-year revenue. This is higher than the existing guidance of €195 million to €205 million, published alongside its FY24 results in March.

The midpoint of the updated guidance, €210 million, would represent an 11.6% increase on revenue reported in the previous year. FY24 represented a record year for Zeal, with both revenue and EBITDA reaching all-time highs.

As for EBITDA, this is now set to range between €63 million and €68 million. Previously, Zeal said EBITDA would be in the range of €55 million to €65 million. Should it reach the midpoint of €65 million, this would surpass the previous year by 5.0%.

Zeal said the new guidance depends on general conditions in the market, particularly further jackpot development. The group added that it intends to publish its Q3 financial results on 5 November.

Weak jackpot cycle fails to derail Zeal in H1

Improved guidance comes on the back of a successful H1 for Zeal. The operator said group revenue increased by 32% to €101.5 million, while EBITDA climbed by a significant 76% to €35.4 million.

This was despite subdued jackpot conditions, with lower average jackpot levels for LOTTO 6aus49 and Eurojackpot. In addition, successful marketing initiatives saw average active customers per month rise by 12% to 1.51 million.

Speaking at the time, CFO Andrea Behrendt said: “Our half-year results are a true team success – especially given that the jackpot situation was rather weak compared to the previous year.

“Challenging market conditions particularly underscore our operational excellence. The significant increases in revenue and EBITDA were driven by further expansion of our customer base and profitability.”

Change at the top for Zeal

Shortly after the conclusion of H1, Zeal announced Stefan Tweraser would become its new CEO. He replaced Helmut Becker, who led the operator for 10 years, on 15 September.

Becker, whose departure was first confirmed in January, will remain available as a consultant until early next year. Becker is expected to move into investing and starting new projects away from gaming once his tenure at Zeal ends.

Tweraser is a newcomer to the gambling sector. He most recently served as CEO of German NewSpace start-up Rocket Factory Augsburg. He was also chief marketing officer of music streaming service Deezer and CEO of hospitality data business SnapShot.

Another recent senior change at Zeal saw Carola Gräfin von Schmettow, former CEO of HSBC Germany, become its new chairwoman. She replaced the outgoing Peter Steiner.

Gräfin von Schmettow was elected to the position at the Zeal annual general meeting. She has been a member of the company’s supervisory board since November 2024.

Revenue was 14.2% higher than in August last year and 4.4% more than July this year. It was also just 3.2% shy of the all-time record of $601.8 million, reported in May 2025.

Figures from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board showed physical slot machines were again the largest single source of revenue. However, sports betting witnessed the most growth, ahead of iGaming.

Pennsylvania iGaming revenue tops $231.2 million

Breaking down the August data, total iGaming revenue, comprising online slots, table games and poker, reached $231.2 million. This represented a year-on-year increase of 25.9%.

Online slots remained king in this area, with revenue rising 29.6% to $179.3 million. Internet table games revenue climbed 14.4% to $49.4 million, with online poker revenue rising 12.6% to $2.5 million.

Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course and its online gaming partners again led the market. Their total iGaming revenue for August was $85.5 million, an increase of 18.5%.

Valley Forge Casino Resort retained second with $67.6 million, up 47.1%. In third was Rivers Casino Philadelphia on $36.6 million, some 18.5% more than August 2024.

Sports betting revenue jumps 63.8%

Turning to sports betting, taxable revenue from the market amounted to $49.2 million, a 63.8% increase from the previous year. Of this, $45.4 million came from online betting and $3.7 million retail sportsbooks.

As for spending, total betting handle in Pennsylvania was $515.4 million, up 6.2% from last year. Players wagered $490 million online and $25.4 million at retail locations.

In terms of hold, the statewide figure for August stood at 9.55%.

Looking to operators, FanDuel, partnered with Valley Forge Casino Resort, continued to lead the market. Gross revenue of $18.8 million from a $171.7 million handle resulted in a hold of 10.95%.

DraftKings and Hollywood Casino at the Meadows were again second, posting $12.3 million from $144.2 million, meaning an 8.53% hold. Fanatics and Hollywood Casino York remained third with $3.7 million off $41.3 million, leaving a hold of 8.96%.

Not far behind in fourth was Hollywood Casino Morgantown and BetMGM, reporting $3.2 million off a $35.4 million handle for a 9.04% hold. ESPN Bet and Hollywood Casino at Penn National completed the top five with $2.8 million from $24.3 million, meaning an 11.52% hold.

Land-based increases in Pennsylvania

Concluding with the land-based sector, retail slots revenue edged up 2.6% to $216.6 million. Retail table games revenue was 0.1% higher at $81.1 million.

Video gaming terminals was the only sector to report a decline, with revenue at the truck stop locations dipping 2.4% to $4.6 million. Fantasy sports revenue climbed 2.6% to $664,758.

As for tax, total income for state and local governments during August was $238.5 million. Tax from iGaming totalled $103.9 million, sports betting $14.6 million, retail slots $105.3 million and land-based table games $12.9 million.

For the 12 months to 31 December 2025, ex-US group revenue is forecast to hit between $2.13 billion (€1.80 billion) and $2.20 billion. This is up almost 8% from its previous guidance of at least $2.04 billion.

Meanwhile, ex-US group adjusted EBITDA is now expected to range between $550 million and $560 million, up from between $470 million and $480 million.

The group’s full Q3 results will not conclude until 30 September. However, after analysing its performance so far in Q3, Super Group on Thursday reported the strength of its performance had allowed it to raise guidance ahead of time.

According to Super Group, it has outperformed prior expectations “despite what is usually a softer seasonal period”. It cited continued momentum in sports betting, optimised pricing and more efficient trading, as well as consistent engagement in casino and improving operational leverage across core international markets.

The operator said this continued momentum reinforced confidence in its full-year outlook. As such, it raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA, although this excludes US operations.

“Our performance through the third quarter continues to demonstrate the resilience of our model and the strength of our execution,” CEO Neal Menashe said of the revised guidance.

“We’re seeing strong contributions from both sports and casino, deeper customer engagement and continued margin improvement across key markets.

“As a result, we’re pleased to raise our full-year outlook and remain confident in our ability to deliver for our shareholders.”

Super Group US business to close in Q4

The increased guidance comes after Super Group, in June, announced it would pull out of the US market. The business is expected to close in early Q4.

Super Group has been offering iGaming in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. However, it elected to withdraw from the country due to “regulatory shifts impacting long-term US expected profitability”. The decision came one year after it also ceased sports betting in the US.

In its latest update, Super Group said it expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $25 million for the US business in 2025, in relation to the divestment. But its US revenue will come in at over $40 million for the year.

In Q2, North America, including its business in Canada, accounted for $199 million of overall revenue. However, US operations generated an EBITDA loss of $5.4 million.

On the flip side, increased activity in Africa, Europe and North America markets led to record quarterly revenue for Super Group. Total revenue for Q2 was 30% higher year-on-year at $579.4 million.

In addition, total adjusted EBITDA for Super Group in Q2 stood at a quarterly record of $156.7 million, a 78% increase. This was despite the US decline.

Speaking after the Q2 announcement, Menashe said the US exit will ultimately aid the company in the future. He said: “While our decision to exit the US was difficult, we believe that this step demonstrates our commitment to capital efficiency and long-term profitability.

“With continued focus on scaling our technology globally, Super Group should be even better positioned for sustained, profitable growth.”

In total, gambling revenue in August amounted to $642.2 million, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement reported. This surpassed the previous year by 15.7% and was also 5.9% higher than July this year.

Land-based casinos remained king with the largest slice of overall revenue. However, it was iGaming that featured a record performance.

iGaming revenue nears a quarter of a billion

Revenue in the iGaming segment climbed 25.2% year-on-year in August. This monthly total exceeded the previous state record, set in July this year, by 0.4%.

Online slots accounted for $245.7 million of all revenue in the iGaming sector, an increase of 25.4% from 2024. Internet poker drew the remaining $2.6 million, up 10.2% from last year.

FanDuel and partner Golden Nugget retained top spot in the market with $57.1 million in revenue, a rise of 38.2%. DraftKings and Resorts World remained second on $47.1 million, up 9%, while BetMGM and the Borgata were third, with revenue rising 46.9% to $32.6 million.

Borgata’s own platform was next with $20.6 million, up 1.4%. Caesars Palace and Tropicana Atlantic City completed the top five with $17.1 million, an increase of 21.7%.

Sports betting revenue up 30.6%

Turning to sports betting, revenue increased 30.6% to $81.9 million. Online betting revenue was 31.5% higher at $79.3 million, while retail revenue climbed 8% to $2.6 million.

Customers spent $814.3 million wagering on sports, some 16.5% more than in August 2024. Of that handle, $778.8 million was bet online and $35.5 million at retail sportsbooks.

As such, the operators’ sports betting hold for the month stood at 10.06%.

FanDuel and Meadowlands took top spot in the online market with revenue of $31.6 million, up 30.7%. New Jersey does not reveal handle total for individual operators.

DraftKings and Resorts World were next with $27.9 million, an increase of 80.1%. BetMGM and Borgata saw revenue rise 73.2% to $7.7 million, while Bet365 and Hard Rock ranked fourth with $5.2 million, up 47%. Caesars and Tropicana rounded out the top five with $3.2 million, a rise of 24.2%.

In terms of retail operators, Meadowlands was the clear leader with $1.6 million, up 93.2%. Monmouth Park was the closest challenger with $286,316, though this was down 37.2%.

Land-based revenue tops $311.9 million in New Jersey

The other market sector, land-based casinos, saw revenue rise by 6.1% to $311.9 million. Of this, $234.3 million came from slot machines, up 5.7%, while table games revenue increased 7.1% to $77.6 million.

As for tax, the total collected by the state from gambling in August was $86.1 million. This included $49.1 million from iGaming, $16.4 million online sports betting, $204,451 retail sportsbooks and $20.4 million land-based casinos.

Total 2025 gambling revenue in the eight months to the end of August reached $4.57 billion, up 9.7% year-on-year. Of that, land-based casinos earned $1.98 billion, iGaming revenue amounted to $1.88 billion and sports betting totalled $708.7 million.

When questioned in parliament last week, Heijnen said no plans were in place to counteract the expected decline. According to Casino Nieuws, the minister told politicians that gambling tax earnings would be in line with expectations set out by KSA in a recent report.

“It is true that the estimate for revenue has been revised downwards this year,” Heijnen said. “This picture is broadly consistent with the expectations communicated by the KSA in a recent report.”

Revenue drop a possibility in the Netherlands

Regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) released a report in August revealing the measure will likely result in a €40 million ($47 million) drop in iGaming revenue, in contrast to earlier forecasts of a €100 million rise in GGR for 2025.

This is due to a gambling tax hike in the Netherlands that is being implemented in two phases. An initial increase from 30.5% of GGR to 34.2% came into effect on 1 January 2025. This will increase further to 37.8% of GGR from 1 January 2026.

Similarly, August data from the Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers (VNLOK) trade body suggested the higher rate could severely impact tax income and cause a €200 million black hole in 2025. The report based this figure on GGR in the first half of 2025 being down 25% compared to last year.

VNLOK said the impact was due to several new restrictive measures enacted over the last year. These include bans on untargeted advertising and sponsorships, new deposit limits and the increased tax burden. It called for the government to act on this and revise the current tax framework.

The Ministry of Finance previously said it expected to collect an additional €200 million annually between 2025 and 2028 in gambling tax revenue, thanks to the increase in rates.

Dutch revenue shortfall ‘not a compensatory policy’

During the short debate in parliament, Heijnen acknowledged that gambling tax revenue is lagging behind, particularly in the online sector. He added this was due to tightening regulations but maintained laws would not be amended as a result.

“In accordance with budgetary rules, windfalls and shortfalls in tax revenue are reflected in the balance after policy is adopted,” he said. “Therefore, the revenue shortfall from this perspective is not a compensatory policy.”

Heijnen is new to the role of State Secretary for Taxation, having taken up the position in early September. He succeeded Tjebbe Van Oostenbruggen, who resigned at the end of August.

Van Oostenbruggen was one of several individuals to step down in the wake of Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp resigning over the decision to block sanctions against Israel because of the conflict in Palestine. Gambling minister Teun Struycken also left his role.

Groupe Partouche benefits from new casino launches

The third quarter results showed Groupe Partouche benefiting from a bigger casino portfolio, with a new venue in Cannes and one further afield in Benin contributing to a 5.3% year-on-year rise in revenue. 

That prompts the question: Can French operators leverage shared language to expand into Francophone Africa? There is evidence of it happening with Spanish businesses in Latin America, so why not French companies in Africa?

And talk of France means talk of iCasino is never far away. Groupe Partouche, with operations in Belgium and Switzerland, could be building up its capabilities. Depending on whether there is any regulatory progress and if it can leverage its land-based database, could it carve out share in France’s future online gaming market?

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The Georgian gambling market

We’re talking the country not the state, but interestingly gambling in Georgia accounts for 3.5% of GDP. That’s the highest level of any country H2 Gambling Capital tracks, Ed points out. 

And while attractions such as “Black Sea Vegas” Batumi are designed to bring in the players, online is the real story in Georgia, making up the vast majority of revenue. 

Georgian gambling is also dominated by major industry players, with Crystalbet (Entain) and Adjarabet (Flutter) battling for supremacy. However it’s local operator Crocobet that’s growing rapidly. 

All this and the usual diversions into the sublime and the ridiculous in the latest Right to the Source!