Nevada gaming revenue drops in September as Vegas tourism woes continue

For the last three months, increasing gaming revenue was the balm that soothed the effects of the 2025 Las Vegas tourism crash, but that too fell by the wayside in September.

According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, the state generated gross gaming revenue of $1.28 billion for the month, a 2.2% decrease year-over-year. The Las Vegas Strip see-sawed from a 5% gain in August to a 5% decrease in September, posting GGR of $687. 8 million. For the fiscal year-to-date, the state is up 2% over last year’s pace while the Strip is up 1.5%.

Baccarat performance on the Strip plummeted 42% YoY to $50.6 million, continuing an extremely volatile stretch for the game. The Strip is +22% for baccarat over the past three months but is -2% over the last 12. For September, the Strip was down 17.5% on table games as a whole.

Nevada set three consecutive fiscal year gaming revenue records from 2022-2024. FY25 broke that streak, but the state is again trending upward, at least for now. September was the first red month of FY26 and all eyes now are on Q4, historically the busiest season of the year for Las Vegas.

But while gaming revenue has been up and down, visitation has only been down, with few signs it will turn around soon.

Troubling visitation, air traffic numbers in September

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported September visitor volume of 3.09 million, a 9% decrease YoY. It has now been a full calendar year since the city posted a YoY visitor gain of more than 1%, which last occurred in September 2024.

As a whole, the LVCVA’s database is rather grim. Convention attendance was down more than 18% and all occupancy, room rate and revenue metrics were in the red. The lone exceptions were car travel on all highways (+2.5%) and travel on Interstate 15 near the California border (+3.4%).

Air travel fared no better, as September traffic at Harry Reid International Airport fell 6% to 4.4 million passengers. Total traffic is now down 5% year-to-date.

The most glaring statistic was a 13.5% skid in international travel, which has been a particularly sore spot for Las Vegas tourism this year. Traffic from Canada and Mexico, the city’s top international markets, has been markedly down this year in response to several factors, including the aggressive tariff and trade policies of US President Donald Trump.

All of the following Canadian and Mexican airlines were down significantly YoY in September:

• Air Canada (-18%)
• WestJet (-44%)
• Volaris (-9%)
• Aeromexico (-11%)

Big Strip operators reeling?

The strain on the Strip and the resulting influx of customers to smaller operators has been shown thus far in third-quarter earnings results.

Caesars and MGM, the two biggest operators to report so far, were both down markedly in Las Vegas, which was also the case in Q2. Wynn managed to buck that trend and post gains in Q2 but has yet to report for the most recent quarter. While Caesars CEO Tom Reeg and MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle had long downplayed concerns for the market, both were more cautious on their Q3 calls.

Hornbuckle said he and his contemporaries deserved “shame” for their high prices and vowed to correct that trend. He told analysts his company is ” proactively working to create initiatives and draw incremental visitation”.

Reeg, for his part, said the market is “four months into this step-down in leisure demand for Vegas”, adding that his company is “still not back to where we were on a year-over-year basis”.

Locals and regionals surge amid Las Vegas tourism woes

Meanwhile, locals operators and ancillary markets are seeing positive results amid the Strip malaise.

Red Rock Resorts saw its net revenue for the quarter increase 1.5% while its net profit surged more than 38%. Boyd Gaming saw overall revenue and profit increase while its Las Vegas locals segment “achieved its strongest quarterly growth in more than two years with year-over-year growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDAR, while segment margins were nearly 50%”, the company said.

In an investor note last week, Macquarie gaming analyst Chad Beynon wrote he was worried “softness from the leisure/international customer” in Las Vegas will “last through year-end” after a strong post-Covid run.

“Conversely, trends in US Regionals remain strong, and we expect this segment to continue outperforming Vegas for the remainder of the year,” Beynon wrote.

All eyes will now be on the fourth quarter, which is typically a big driver for Las Vegas tourism. The Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday breaks mixed with a busy sports, entertainment and conference schedule tend to buoy the slower spring and summer months.

Hopes pinned on F1 to jumpstart new growth

The third edition of the Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix is also set for 20-22 November, and stakeholders are hopeful that can return to growth as well.

During the record-setting days of 2023, the race generated an estimated $1.5 billion in economic impact, the most ever for a single event. The 2024 race, by comparison, was pegged to have generated $934 million. As mentioned, that point (November 2024) was right around the beginning of the downward trend.

Leading the charge for promoting the race is the LVCVA and its CEO, Steve Hill. Hill and company have had their work cut out for them in 2025 to combat the city’s visitation drop. The agency this year has travelled to Canada, rolled out a new ad campaign and organised a city-wide Las Vegas sale in September. F1 is now the next key event on the calendar.

“We’ve refined access and mobility plans, strengthened communication with residents and employees, and expanded transportation options,” Hill told iGB recently. “The Las Vegas Grand Prix team also listened closely to feedback from the community, resorts and fans, resulting in a more collaborative and responsive approach to hosting the race.”

Analysing the factors at play

From a market-wide perspective, stakeholders will be taking a close look at many headwinds that could be a drag on Q4 performance. Some fears might be easier to explain away than others, and this may well be a disappointing overall year for the sector.

Josh Swissman, managing director for GMA Consulting, told iGB his outlook will be shaped by specific factors at play. He suggested that tough YoY comparisons due to changing entertainment or conference schedules, or just poorer operating performance, are easier to stomach than overall visitation trends.

“If [poor performance] is due more systemically to decreased planing and deplaning numbers or vehicles crossing the California border, and it’s like that for, say, 89 out of the 90 days in the quarter, well shoot, that’s indicative of a bigger problem and something that would perhaps be a little more concerning,” he said.